Just imagine how it will feel when Bitcoin breaks $100k. And then $200k. And then $500k. And then $1M. And then...
Don't sell your corn, fools.
Don't go against the new law:
Bitcoindynamics!
#engineerscornhaiku
Don't do it** fools.
**sell too many corns too soon, and never sell all ur corns, retard.[ edited out]
ROFLMAO 🤪
YES I was absolutely Joking! (
but thanks for playingalong!International BBS forums bring out the best of my naturally dry sense of humor... or maybe just confuses people, I dunno, but
I laughed!
No problem with joking, but the truth of the matter is that hardly anyone here knows you, and therefore the likelihood of confusion becomes pretty damned high - and furthermore, being in the middle of a war or the greatest wealth transfer in history is no laughing matter, even if from time to time we can make some jokes along the way that are not as likely to be misunderstood.
*page break*
So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances...
(And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now)
Fair enough.. glad you are not bringing shitcoins in here any more than necessary because they tend to cause mass headache events in these here parts, kind of like a virus.
So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount.
Everything sounds good until you get to mentioning the stop... From my perspective, you are overly complicating matters by fucking around with stop limit bullshit because we see it so many times that stop limits are sought out for liquidation and then after you are force sold, the price goes shooting up - never coming back, or at least not coming back in a time frame that allows you to meaningfully play the up and down waves to the extent that they might be hypothesized in advance.
In other words, let's say that you hit your waves 75% of the time, but 25% you do not. Probably you will end up wasting your time at least and losing all your money at worse.
If your timeline is 10 years or more (and you even said that your timeline is 25-35 years) you don't need to be fucking around. Just stack your sats and don't play around with bullshit. (yeah sure, I know that you are going to do what you are going to do, but this thread is public, so I am not just directing this answer at your seemingly gambling inclinations).
Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement.
If I understand you correctly, you are just fucking around with the new money that comes in, so it is a relatively small amount of your yearly expected investment amount 1/52... so sure, you could run such an experiment for a while and try to figure out if you have a tendency to be able to perform better than vanilla DCAing.
I will admit that when I was earlier in my BTC accumulation stage, I did used to give my lil selfie a weekly allowance, and that did last for about a year on a regular basis and more sporadically in the next year or so. So, even if I did not play around with stop losses - because I don't really believe in them, but I did try to time some or all of my weekly allowance for dips, to the extent that I had any feelings about how each week would go once my allowance period started.
So, of course, I am way more inclined to believe that you do not need all that bullshit attempts at trying to stack more sats when there is a system that works quite well already, and since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, you are already in an asymmetric as fuck bet, and way ahead of regular peeps who are likely to be coming into bitcoin in the next few BTC cycles with BTC prices relatively quite a bit higher than they are at any point in this particular cycle.. so fucking around with the cycle may end up causing you to invest less. but sure.. experiment with it if you feel that you need to see if you can beat the market with your weekly allowance for the next 52 weeks or however long you continue to employ that strategy.. and sure if your strategy is successful, you can extend it, and maybe you will be ready to share some knowledge with other guys here .. so long as you come up with something that is NOT too overly complicated. For sure, it is difficult as fuck to just get guys to figure out their own finances and attempt to employ the most basic of strategies, so if you are adding additional complexity, then you surely might be advantaged by that if you really are able to calculate both what you are doing and being honest with yourself in terms of whether you are actually beating a more basic DCAing strategy that is already proven as pretty damned solid and not too likely to devolve into any thing less solid any time soon, especially for guys with a decently long investment time horizon.
Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...
I agree.. you should be able to both learn from your system and adjust your amounts or stop loss placements in order to attempt to account for if you are getting better or not... and surely, it could take a whole cycle to figure out if you are good in both a bear market and a bull market and if you really have any clue figuring out which one you might be in and if the BTC price moves in directions that you predict more than it moves against you.. and sure there are probably also ways that you could have a 20% or 30% success rate but still be profitable overall and even beating the DCA approach, if you were to want to use that as a cross-reference.
but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration, because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.
It sounds good in theory, or on paper, but you might not really know if you are able to do it without practicing, and surely how much value do you want to place in making these kinds of bets remains a discretionary matter.. and you surely would need to try to employ a certain level of humbleness and rational thought to what you are doing, especially the more complicated the system becomes.
*page break*
Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho,
Probably that should be the overall goal for anyone who considers himself/herself to be in BTC accumulation stage... which could last 10-20 years before reaching adequate and satisfactorily accumulation levels that you feel comfortable playing around..,. or experimenting.
the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.
I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. so maybe it will work for you since you seem to be more than willing to put in the time, attempts at learning, tweakengings along the way and ongoing analysis.
Part of the benefits of DCA is that not too much efforts need to be put into it, at least relative to the kind of practices that you are suggesting to employ, so maybe even some system like your might appeal only to 1/10 personas at best, but I am thinking that your system would be have even a lower appeal level than that amongst the regular population - because the overwhelming vast majority of peeps have difficulties figuring out even how much free cashflow that they have on a regular basis and do not tend to project their cashflow out for more than a month or two, so lots of normies (and even otherwise very smart people who have their smarts in other areas/specialties) end up scrambling because they are not really inclined to be spending a lot of time looking at charts and trying to strategize (and if they do, they do not tend to be very good at it at all, even with quite a bit of practicing).
And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree that if you are able to establish a system that works and is better than simple DCA'ing and you are able to share or communicate your strategies clearly in ways that people understand, then more mass following of such a system could bring down volatility - especially if you can figure out ways to punish the stop loss hunters who tend to get rewarded for punishing a bunch of folks who believe that they are smarter than more simple vanilla DCA buy, accumulate and HODL practices.
Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself.
Of course, exchange risks vary, so not sure if you can account for all of the exchange risks, but sure you can engage in various mitigating efforts and sometimes you can use a couple exchanges, too. Sometimes I will run into one or two exchanges having "short term" difficulties, but other exchanges NOT having such "difficulties", and sometimes such "difficulties can screw you out of keeping your management of your portfolio balanced in a way that you would like... and sometimes you might not even realize some of the level of information sharing that one exchange might engage in versus another one, even though these days you probably should be assuming that your exchange information is being shared in ways that is not really preferable to you.
BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?
I don't have any problems with practicing and trying to figure things out, and surely we sometimes see that some guys get burnt really bad because they seem to be employing good practices, but then they end up devolving into too much gambling or just experiencing some kind of meltdown that goes beyond what should have happened.. because we already know that bitcoin overshoots BIGGEDly and it is difficult to establish a sustainable system that can last even a whole cycle.. so even if some of us guys might give you suggestions in one direction or another, ultimately you have to figure out what kind of balancing works for you both financially and psychology and it might end UP not matching any other guy here.. but who cares, as long as it works for you, then that will be the main point...
TLDR: none of us
(royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?
Poll
