Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

$250k-$750k - prudence and buying extra nice things from time to time

Honestly said same think with @JayJuanGee agree time to time maked nice moment in bitcoin world, All things considered you have a lot of experience with Bitcoin and a lot of skills that you have acquired. We can give very few details about bitcoin but here you have presented bitcoin in great detail from which you can get a lot of good ideas. On the other hand, since you are constantly sharing your experience we can hope that in the future we will be able to learn a lot from him.

I am just suggesting that if your target "fuck you" status level happens to be reaching $2 million in accumulated value in your investment portfolio (presuming that a decent amount of that portfolio value is in bitcoin), so as you get closer to your goal which means building up the size of your investment portfolio, you can likely begin to relax more while at the same time improving your lifestyle along the way too.

You do not want to relax so much that you are making it impossible to reach your target fuck you status, but through the years I have noticed that value of a somewhat responsibly managed investment portfolio does tend develop some of its own kinds of compounding effects, so it is much easier to build it up as it is getting BIGGER - presuming that it is not in a bubble, either.. but sure there may also be times that it is just fluctuating, but if you look at the longer stretch it may well show that it is growing (even if there might seems to be ups and downs along the way and sometimes you might not know with confidence that your investment portfolio is growing while in the midst of some kind of down period).

I am able to track my own investment portfolio back for more than 30 years, and I see that it had taken me a long time to build, but at the same time, I was also going to college and things like that, which seemed to cause lack of growth periods, yet as the time passed, the investment portfolio seemed to develop some seemingly compounding effects too.. of course, getting away from debts that were not used towards building capital and value.. and I suppose some of those larger and later areas of growth in value might just have been due to bitcoin and some of my own track record might put into question whether we are able to continue to expect some of the outrageous growth that has historically come from bitcoin.

I personally had noticed that regular assets/investments had not tended to compound even close to as much upon themselves as bitcoin, but still frequently as a person's investment portfolio is getting larger, s/he should also be able to consume more too... and sure, hopefully there is some balance in terms of NOT taking away from the ongoing ability of your investment portfolio to continue to grown and to compound upon itself, but surely as you take out some profits, rather than just folding those profits back into your portfolio, there will be some likely shrinkage in the magnitude of the portfolio's growth when you are pulling out some of the profits, even if seemingly small amounts (could be tax consequences, too).

At the same time, it is good to live a bit, too.. once you are becoming more wealthy.... so long as you are still limiting the amounts of the profits that you are pulling out of your investment and taking your eye away from your target amount (in this case $2 million)..

For example, let's say that your total investment portfolio got up to a value of $500k, and it took you 7 years to get to that status, and you are feeling quite good about your overall investments and your strategies to get to where you are at.  Hey this is bitcoin, we can have histories of guys who have gotten to $500k in 7 years or even less amount of time than that, but they may well needed to have some persistence and stick-with-it-ness in order to get there too   You will see that DCA investing in BTC at $30 per week for the past 7 years would have gotten you to about $500k at our current BTC prices (about 12 BTC).

So, you had invested nearly $11k, which is about 44.5x profits, and if you have not taken any profits so far, you may be nervous to take profits because we still seem to be in a dip in our current BTC price, and your goal remains to reach $2 million, so maybe instead of taking profits from BTC, you would just spend from other means..and I doubt that you should stop putting $30 per week into BTC or maybe even more than that, but it should be possible that your cashflow has increased in other areas over the past 7 years, so you could perhaps afford to splurge in the use of your cashflow from some of those other areas without necessarily taking from your ongoing bitcoin building and compounding..

From a discretionary stance, you could also decide to trim some profits from your bitcoin.. even if the regular amount that you are putting into bitcoin continues to be $30 per week and is really not very much.. and 7 years later, it may well seem that you could doubling the amount that you put into BTC to $60 per week (depending on your cashflow) without even feeling any real strain on yourself nor your budget.

The building of an investment portfolio seems to give options in terms of how much to continue to build on the areas that are BIGGER than the rest, but you could also reassess whether the BIGGER areas still have potential to grow or might you need to start investing in other areas or consuming or considering if you might get delayed in reaching your $2 million fuck you status goal, even if with our $500k scenario you would already be 1/4 of the way there after 7 years, which I guess I am suggesting that it should not necessarily take you an additional 21 years to make the other 3/4 (which is $1.5 million)... so maybe you are half way there, if you continue to let your BTC largely just compound upon itself... but a 4x in BTC price could also well take place within this particular cycle and then your concerns about being only 1/4 of the way to fuck you status just ends up happening a lot more quickly than you thought... not that I personally would be relying upon spot price to determine BTC portfolio value..and that is another potentially long story about how to value your BTC in order to pull the fuck you lever when the time comes.   

[JayJuanGee]

.....

gembitz is active again, is that a good or bad sign?

Rather than being either good or bad, it's probably a wee sign.

.....

that made me chuckle, jay, then I almost weed.

no wait...actually I grow weed....

....Alfred farted with such force .....

This stopped my scanning in its trax and made me read the whole post....

.....

Any sm post always stops me scanning...

.....

Dude seriously... get rid of that that "need 3 btc... urgently" nonsense in your avatar.
Its not doing you any favors.
If I had 10,000 btc to my name, I would not give you a single sat. And I'm pretty sure no one else would either in this thread.
Quit begging.

I have considered point 0.01 btc at ck solo pool on a rental.

and giving him eXPHorizon 0.0625 btc if the block hits.

but he would still most likely bitch and moan that I made 6.10 btc off him if I hit the block.

Oh gawd.. you are worse than the troll shill himself if you believe that he deserves anything for free... yeah, roll a random dice and give part of a winnings to a worthless beggar.. makes a lot of sense to me.
  Hopefully you are not encouraging others to give to the beggar too.  Do you realize that the beggar should probably be banned, and you are even suggesting giving him money?   Makes little sense philip, even if you are joking (which I believe that you are not joking).

  people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.

Nice little monologue Copetech, and it surely could have been worth a merit, perhaps? perhaps? except for your above lil factual misrepresentation... Might have been innocent.. perhaps?  perhaps? but it's not the first time that you have gotten some facts, logic and even conclusions wrong before based on such newbie citteee sloppiness Copetech..but hopefully you will get MOAR better with practice, practice and a wee bit more practice...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, I am not conceding that getting to regular fuck you status is necessarily difficult, and it should be coming down reasonably well in the coming years, whether this cycle or the next one.

Did you adjust for the mindrust factor?

Sure there is a mindrust factor, and I did not really account for it because there are a lot of dumb things that people do when they over invest and they gamble and then they end up doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Look, in my earlier post from just an hour ago, I just gave an example of our hypothetical fuck you aspirant, reaching $500k in 7 years based on $30 per week, so if that same hypothetical fuck you aspirant had invested more, then s/he too would already be at fuck you status or quite close to fuck you status.  We can even use the more conservative 208-week moving average.

If we use spot price of $39,000-ish (yeah we are currently having a dippening), then $30 per week gets us to $500k at that price, so under the same scenario we would appreciate that $120 per week would have gotten us to $2billion at spot price.. but personally I do not like spot price.

I think that in order to account for near inevitable BTC price volatility in a bear market we would use the 208-week moving average (which is currently at $14k) in order to be mostly safe to be accounting for the most severe of BTC price bottoms, and in a bull market we could get way with using the 104-week moving average (which is currently at $21k).

I personally feel safer to use the 208-week moving average, and I would not want to be pulling any fuck you lever or suggesting that others pull the fuck you lever on anything less than the 208-week moving average.

So, of course, fuck you status is still a bit further in the distance if we use the 208-week moving average, and it means that we would have needed to acquire at least 142.86 BTC by now in order to be at such status (and of course the actual spot price of 142.86 BTC is close to $6 million, but for BTC volatility purposes we are using the 208 week moving average to assess value).  So sure, we may well need more than 7 years and more than $120 per week. 

For illustrative purposes, I use 8 years and $250 per week to show that fuck you status could have been achieved in 8 years.... and sure of course that it is investing about $13k per year for the past 8 years, but divided on a weekly basis..and an overall total of $104,500 invested, and a 56.6x return... so a bit aggressive, but reasonably doable without being already rich.

Knowing Bitcoin volatility, I think there is a greater chance that more hodlers will get shaken out by a dip than new not-already-billionaire bitcoiners getting to 10x or even 1x FU. I predict (with no supporting data whatsoever, where's the fun in that) that future Bitcoin wealth will be heavily centralized and that we will have more plumbers than bitcoiners reaching the FU level.

Not a bad theory, but you seem to be not very confident in bitcoiners to HODL, but even if what you say is true, there does end up being some redistribution, and not necessarily all towards the institutional rich, and I personally believe that a decent number of nerdy tech types are going to be able to hang onto a sufficient number of their coins, too.. which creates some newer kinds of rich.

Now that I said that I'm genuinely curious what's the ratio. Judging by what they charge I think plumbers might already be winning.

Nueva rich plumbers.. perhaps?  perhaps?   Sure, some will get into bitcoin, but overall, I have my doubts about them really coming in disproportionately more than any other skilled business that is ready, willing and able to charge premium prices for their services.

[ivomm]

eXPHorizon: mash-mushmash-mushmash-mushmash-mushmash-mushmash-mushmash-mushmash-mushmash-mush

[JimboToronto]

...snip...

This just shows what kind of a person he is.

It just shows what kind of person you are. No one here believes your bullshit. You come across as a poster boy fur Dunning-Kruger.

Grow up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Victorycoin]

I am able to track my own investment portfolio back for more than 30 years, and I see that it had taken me a long time to build, but at the same time, I was also going to college and things like that, which seemed to cause lack of growth periods, yet as the time passed, the investment portfolio seemed to develop some seemingly compounding effects too.. of course, getting away from debts that were not used towards building capital and value.. and I suppose some of those larger and later areas of growth in value might just have been due to bitcoin and some of my own track record might put into question whether we are able to continue to expect some of the outrageous growth that has historically come from bitcoin.

I personally had noticed that regular assets/investments had not tended to compound even close to as much upon themselves as bitcoin, but still frequently as a person's investment portfolio is getting larger, s/he should also be able to consume more too... and sure, hopefully there is some balance in terms of NOT taking away from the ongoing ability of your investment portfolio to continue to grown and to compound upon itself, but surely as you take out some profits, rather than just folding those profits back into your portfolio, there will be some likely shrinkage in the magnitude of the portfolio's growth when you are pulling out some of the profits, even if seemingly small amounts (could be tax consequences, too).

At the same time, it is good to live a bit, too.. once you are becoming more wealthy.... so long as you are still limiting the amounts of the profits that you are pulling out of your investment and taking your eye away from your target amount (in this case $2 million)..


So, you had invested nearly $11k, which is about 44.5x profits, and if you have not taken any profits so far, you may be nervous to take profits because we still seem to be in a dip in our current BTC price, and your goal remains to reach $2 million, so maybe instead of taking profits from BTC, you would just spend from other means..and I doubt that you should stop putting $30 per week into BTC or maybe even more than that, but it should be possible that your cashflow has increased in other areas over the past 7 years, so you could perhaps afford to splurge in the use of your cashflow from some of those other areas without necessarily taking from your ongoing bitcoin building and compounding..

From a discretionary stance, you could also decide to trim some profits from your bitcoin.. even if the regular amount that you are putting into bitcoin continues to be $30 per week and is really not very much.. and 7 years later, it may well seem that you could doubling the amount that you put into BTC to $60 per week (depending on your cashflow) without even feeling any real strain on yourself nor your budget.  

Realy you are a talented gue most off knowledge bitcoin I agree with you that I always believe that Bitcoin is a very useful medium that only applies to long time investors. I personally think that there is a need to increase investment in Bitcoin from now on because there may not be enough opportunities in the future now. One of the most important is keeping a certain amount of money in Bitcoin every week, which will be considered a much more profitable investment in the future.

In general, many people are afraid to keep money in Bitcoin, but I think that many people are profitable to keep Bitcoin money those who invest in different coins and face losses are also afraid to keep Bitcoin later. In general, many people are afraid to keep money in Bitcoin, but I think that many people are profitable to keep Bitcoin money, those who invest in different coins and face losses are also afraid to keep Bitcoin later.

In this case, I have a lot of positive reasons that bitcoin investment will never fail if it is locked in the right way, but keep in mind that the more intelligent you be and the more intelligent you are the more profitable you will be. Basically, these are the reasons I am so positive that bitcoin investment is more important for the future.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

Historically speaking, following each touch of this lower S2F deflection trendline Bitcoin has gone on an absolute tear:


https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1422373558085373956

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

Dan Held,The Director of Growth Marketing at Kraken slaying with his words and directly targeting central authorities who now have changed their minds in bitcoin adoption.

So now will they also call themselves criminals?

[OutOfMemory]

^ How revealing  

(EDIT: by the way:)
I blame this "correction" (EDIT: BTC not going up daily) on the "infrastructure bill"-noise that is just being generated in the US.
Yellen is not really competent, so she should not refuse to educate herself about bitcoin instead of being influenced by nocoiner shitheads.
knowledge is power.

As i fly over the last WO pages:
Kriptonyan trying to shitstorm JJG?
@ExPhorizon: Envy is something you whouldn't include in your lifestyle, otherwise you will stay in the hell you are right now.
Evolve! If you want success, you gotta do what the successful (Bitcoiners) do.
Alternative? GTFO  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

  people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.

Nice little monologue Copetech, and it surely could have been worth a merit, perhaps? perhaps? except for your above lil factual misrepresentation... Might have been innocent.. perhaps?  perhaps? but it's not the first time that you have gotten some facts, logic and even conclusions wrong before based on such newbie citteee sloppiness Copetech..but hopefully you will get MOAR better with practice, practice and a wee bit more practice...

I scrolled WaY Back to find the posting I was Referring to and may have possibly gotten the referencing mixed up...?

I have told variations of the story with this particular tio several times in this thread, but I had specifically given him $10 worth of bitcoin in 2014 when the BTC price was around $385.  I did that through Circle, and they had a feature that you could claw back the gift in the event that the member had not opened their e-mail, which was the case for him, and I clawed it back in early 2016, but he contacted me in mid 2016 when BTC was around $750, and I agree to send him the same amount again, which was like $19-ish.  He then bought $300 worth of Bitcoin through Circle and then sold all of his BTC in about mid-2017 (presumably receiving long term tax treatment) for around $3,800-ish.. so he would have made something like $1,800 in profits.. and I am pretty sure that he has been a no coiner ever since...  

[Edit Snip Snip]

I already know that I won, but only trying to be charitable to him in terms of providing information if he is willing to receive it, and he does not want no charity, because he is a self-made kind of guy who has some comforts in paying his fund manager to manage his funds that my uncle has lived off for 25 years-ish... .

When I first saw this (shortly after the Rat had been called out on his begging) I took it as previously giving bits of cheese to the Rat... but now looking back, maybe it was J1GUncle that got the cheese?

Anyway memory is a very odd thing and creates very different realities for each individual. Maybe I did in fact get my reality confuzzled with your Bot Reality, but either way the overarching point still applies. Treat Rats as Rats and End up with less Stray Cats!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Victorycoin]

  people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.

Nice little monologue Copetech, and it surely could have been worth a merit, perhaps? perhaps? except for your above lil factual misrepresentation... Might have been innocent.. perhaps?  perhaps? but it's not the first time that you have gotten some facts, logic and even conclusions wrong before based on such newbie citteee sloppiness Copetech..but hopefully you will get MOAR better with practice, practice and a wee bit more practice...

I scrolled WaY Back to find the posting I was Referring to and may have possibly gotten the referencing mixed up...?

I have told variations of the story with this particular tio several times in this thread, but I had specifically given him $10 worth of bitcoin in 2014 when the BTC price was around $385.  I did that through Circle, and they had a feature that you could claw back the gift in the event that the member had not opened their e-mail, which was the case for him, and I clawed it back in early 2016, but he contacted me in mid 2016 when BTC was around $750, and I agree to send him the same amount again, which was like $19-ish.  He then bought $300 worth of Bitcoin through Circle and then sold all of his BTC in about mid-2017 (presumably receiving long term tax treatment) for around $3,800-ish.. so he would have made something like $1,800 in profits.. and I am pretty sure that he has been a no coiner ever since...  

[Edit Snip Snip]

I already know that I won, but only trying to be charitable to him in terms of providing information if he is willing to receive it, and he does not want no charity, because he is a self-made kind of guy who has some comforts in paying his fund manager to manage his funds that my uncle has lived off for 25 years-ish... .

When I first saw this (shortly after the Rat had been called out on his begging) I took it as previously giving bits of cheese to the Rat... but now looking back, maybe it was J1GUncle that got the cheese?

Anyway memory is a very odd thing and creates very different realities for each individual. Maybe I did in fact get my reality confuzzled with your Bot Reality, but either way the overarching point still applies. Treat Rats as Rats and End up with less Stray Cats!

Well to see everyone are knowledgeable gues i hope and observed that everyone point discussion smoothly but i just adding something @JayJuanGee is the most knowledgeable person of bitcoin and bitcoin market,  i hope you also agreed to @JayJuanGee deserved some extra respect only for writing and knowledgeable reply, ooh yeah @JayJuanGee your uncle true? hopfully @JayJuanGee is a master for sometime so we can learn some knowledge from him and learn more things.

[somac.]

If anyone has been keeping up with the recent FUD it seems like there could be a big one coming out of the USA with some new kind of bullshit legislation.

https://twitter.com/jerrybrito/status/1422002228102107142

If it does go through as is, does anone here think this will be an actual problem? I'm not a miner nor US based atm so don't know how much it affect the people who are.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation