Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

Dude seriously... get rid of that that "need 3 btc... urgently" nonsense in your avatar.
Its not doing you any favors.
If I had 10,000 btc to my name, I would not give you a single sat. And I'm pretty sure no one else would either in this thread.
Quit begging.

I have considered point 0.01 btc at ck solo pool on a rental.

and giving him eXPHorizon 0.0625 btc if the block hits.

but he would still most likely bitch and moan that I made 6.10 btc off him if I hit the block.

... I think he's hoping that if he leaves the begging quote in there and is annoying as fuck to the whole forum someone will eventually throw the 3 btc at him to just fuck off already

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[marcus_of_augustus]

They taped a toonie to my letter.  It was pretty heavy on one side so I was really curious what the heck was in this letter.  I kept the money and shredded the rest... I don't even listen to local radio.

HAH, I wouldn't fill out a form for a Toonie either!!

had to google what it was

 At first, I was on the fence as to whether it was worth opening the envelope for $2 but then I found out it was toonie Tuesday at KFC and it was also National Fried Chicken Day (not an actual stat holiday if anyone was wondering) so it was like the planets had aligned to get me a tasty chicken sandwich just for opening the envelope.

... it's a slippery slope, it begins with a toonie for a KFC chicken sandwich ... before you know it you're taking beers and joints to get experimentally vaccinated to protect from a chinese virus of dubious origins and then who knows what quid pro quo from the corpocracy ... getting CDBC stimmy bonus checks in your digital wallet in return for your lifetimes spending data?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

They taped a toonie to my letter.  It was pretty heavy on one side so I was really curious what the heck was in this letter.  I kept the money and shredded the rest... I don't even listen to local radio.

HAH, I wouldn't fill out a form for a Toonie either!!

had to google what it was

 At first, I was on the fence as to whether it was worth opening the envelope for $2 but then I found out it was toonie Tuesday at KFC and it was also National Fried Chicken Day (not an actual stat holiday if anyone was wondering) so it was like the planets had aligned to get me a tasty chicken sandwich just for opening the envelope.

... it's a slippery slope, it begins with a toonie for a KFC chicken sandwich ... before you know it you're taking beers and joints to get experimentally vaccinated to protect from a chinese virus of dubious origins and then who knows what quid pro quo from the corpocracy ... getting CDBC stimmy bonus checks in your digital wallet in return for your lifetimes spending data?

Then straight to BJ's under the bridge for sliders amirite?
gotta draw a line somewhere goddamnit!

[Millionero]

On the other hand, I do agree with his overall view about bitcoin being a long term play.. and also his overall perception that bitcoin is going to go up forever, Laura.. but there might be some decently long periods of downity between some of the periods of UPpity.

Yes. Though I lean more towards an s-curve. I just think anyone that gives any weight to twitter is making a mistake.

Logistic growth takes an s-shape only on linear charts.

[Copetech]

You can Clearly see Jays Personality, he has 1000+ BTC and is harrasing a person with no money and quite enjoying in it. Imagine people, you harrasing a person who helped you build up your Fortune. Very Clever and fulfilling aint it ? Thats why he is doing this, he cant help him self but to spread only hate and misery. This is his only rule in life


This just shows what kind of a person he is.

OK enough of the BullShit!

Granted, I am fairly new to the forum but I've tolerated more than enough of your panhandling scamster meets Communist BULLSHIT!

You want to know what your posts says about whose character? A little hint, I commonly tell panhandlers to Fuck Off even though I much more commonly tip a good waitress or bartender 25-50%! (A couple months ago I left $100 tip on a $50 tab) Why? Because they bust their asses to offer a real service, and I consider tipping to be a merit based payscale. I've also stopped when I see a young man holding a "Will work for food" sign and offered $25 if they'd come pick up the trash dropped in my yard by passing motorists. After getting a few rude gestures and no takers on my offers, I finally decided to put my money back in my pocket and go pick up the trash myself! So now, if there does happen to be a young man, down on his luck and actually willing to work for food, I'll never give him a second thought because people like YOU have shown it to be a scam, and people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.
Panhandling Fuck, if you don't want to be treated like a Rat, stop Acting like one!
You've said you don't have $10 a week to invest, that just proves you offer NOTHING of value for people to pay an extra $10 for! And yet you have the nerve to beg for $100k worth of BTC?!? The type of person that will willingly accept such free hand-outs for nothing but a sob story in exchange, are the very same type that stand on the corner lying about working for food. Rats!
Then you start talking about a Communist Utopia!?! You do realize that Rats like you are the very reason why a Communist Utopia can never work right? You'd be in the first batch sent to the gulag for not producing enough to cover your own upkeep. But note I said First... see Communist BULLSHIT creates more people like you, people who decide it's not worth working for your bread since everyone gets the same meager bread regardless. And so, time after time it has been tried and every single time millions die and those who don't barely avoid starvation.
So don't even speak of that shit, and if you can't offer enough value to the world to invest $10/week towards your future financial success, then Fuck Right Off and quick suckling up the value that could go to those who ARE willing to try in life!!
Watch your step Rat, cuz the cheese don't come for free!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

In other words, I am not conceding that getting to regular fuck you status is necessarily difficult, and it should be coming down reasonably well in the coming years, whether this cycle or the next one.

Did you adjust for the mindrust factor?

Knowing Bitcoin volatility, I think there is a greater chance that more hodlers will get shaken out by a dip than new not-already-billionaire bitcoiners getting to 10x or even 1x FU. I predict (with no supporting data whatsoever, where's the fun in that) that future Bitcoin wealth will be heavily centralized and that we will have more plumbers than bitcoiners reaching the FU level.

Now that I said that I'm genuinely curious what's the ratio. Judging by what they charge I think plumbers might already be winning.

[nutildah]

...
Granted, I am fairly new to the forum but I've tolerated more than enough of your panhandling scamster meets Communist BULLSHIT!
...

Pretty sure he was already banned under another account for begging excessively in other parts of the forum. He could just be a troll with absolutely nothing better to do. Either way, best handled by putting him on Ignore.

[sirazimuth]

I found a way to make a quick 2 bucks for nothing with the promise of another 5 if you fill out the Nielsen's ratings survey.  Watch your mailbox eXPHorizon!  Maybe you can also wait for your neighbours to get their mail and offer to get rid of their junk mail for them.   You pocket the 2 bucks and put the rest in the recycle bin.  Easy money.

https://lifehacker.com/dont-toss-out-the-cash-hiding-in-your-junk-mail-1847397294

Hah, just remembered I got a letter from them with a dollar bill in it and a letter asking for me to do the one page survey in the envelope a few years ago.

Same here bro!
So did you fill out the survey and return it?
I didn’t.
I figured that $1.00 didn’t cover my time and labor costs of filling out their stupid survey and mailing it.
Thanx for the dollar though! Lol

[Richy_T]

On the other hand, I do agree with his overall view about bitcoin being a long term play.. and also his overall perception that bitcoin is going to go up forever, Laura.. but there might be some decently long periods of downity between some of the periods of UPpity.

Yes. Though I lean more towards an s-curve. I just think anyone that gives any weight to twitter is making a mistake.

Logistic growth takes an s-shape only on linear charts.

Yes

[Richy_T]

Hey whoever's driving this thing, you've moved the lever in the wrong direction. Get it sorted!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Same here bro!
So did you fill out the survey and return it?
I didn’t.
I figured that $1.00 didn’t cover my time and labor costs of filling out their stupid survey and mailing it.
Thanx for the dollar though! Lol

I actually can't remember but I think I didn't because I don't watch network tv so my data is worthless too them anyway.

[nanobtc]

eXPHorizon Give it up, small child. If you were Xpert-Coder-Free-Energy, you would have better spelling/syntax, and not be living in your Mum's basement.. It's easy to find you on other platforms, singing the same sad song. Bah.

In the words of George Thorogood: "Get a haircut, and get a real job"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

$250k-$750k - prudence and buying extra nice things from time to time

Honestly said same think with @JayJuanGee agree time to time maked nice moment in bitcoin world, All things considered you have a lot of experience with Bitcoin and a lot of skills that you have acquired. We can give very few details about bitcoin but here you have presented bitcoin in great detail from which you can get a lot of good ideas. On the other hand, since you are constantly sharing your experience we can hope that in the future we will be able to learn a lot from him.

I am just suggesting that if your target "fuck you" status level happens to be reaching $2 million in accumulated value in your investment portfolio (presuming that a decent amount of that portfolio value is in bitcoin), so as you get closer to your goal which means building up the size of your investment portfolio, you can likely begin to relax more while at the same time improving your lifestyle along the way too.

You do not want to relax so much that you are making it impossible to reach your target fuck you status, but through the years I have noticed that value of a somewhat responsibly managed investment portfolio does tend develop some of its own kinds of compounding effects, so it is much easier to build it up as it is getting BIGGER - presuming that it is not in a bubble, either.. but sure there may also be times that it is just fluctuating, but if you look at the longer stretch it may well show that it is growing (even if there might seems to be ups and downs along the way and sometimes you might not know with confidence that your investment portfolio is growing while in the midst of some kind of down period).

I am able to track my own investment portfolio back for more than 30 years, and I see that it had taken me a long time to build, but at the same time, I was also going to college and things like that, which seemed to cause lack of growth periods, yet as the time passed, the investment portfolio seemed to develop some seemingly compounding effects too.. of course, getting away from debts that were not used towards building capital and value.. and I suppose some of those larger and later areas of growth in value might just have been due to bitcoin and some of my own track record might put into question whether we are able to continue to expect some of the outrageous growth that has historically come from bitcoin.

I personally had noticed that regular assets/investments had not tended to compound even close to as much upon themselves as bitcoin, but still frequently as a person's investment portfolio is getting larger, s/he should also be able to consume more too... and sure, hopefully there is some balance in terms of NOT taking away from the ongoing ability of your investment portfolio to continue to grown and to compound upon itself, but surely as you take out some profits, rather than just folding those profits back into your portfolio, there will be some likely shrinkage in the magnitude of the portfolio's growth when you are pulling out some of the profits, even if seemingly small amounts (could be tax consequences, too).

At the same time, it is good to live a bit, too.. once you are becoming more wealthy.... so long as you are still limiting the amounts of the profits that you are pulling out of your investment and taking your eye away from your target amount (in this case $2 million)..

For example, let's say that your total investment portfolio got up to a value of $500k, and it took you 7 years to get to that status, and you are feeling quite good about your overall investments and your strategies to get to where you are at.  Hey this is bitcoin, we can have histories of guys who have gotten to $500k in 7 years or even less amount of time than that, but they may well needed to have some persistence and stick-with-it-ness in order to get there too   You will see that DCA investing in BTC at $30 per week for the past 7 years would have gotten you to about $500k at our current BTC prices (about 12 BTC).

So, you had invested nearly $11k, which is about 44.5x profits, and if you have not taken any profits so far, you may be nervous to take profits because we still seem to be in a dip in our current BTC price, and your goal remains to reach $2 million, so maybe instead of taking profits from BTC, you would just spend from other means..and I doubt that you should stop putting $30 per week into BTC or maybe even more than that, but it should be possible that your cashflow has increased in other areas over the past 7 years, so you could perhaps afford to splurge in the use of your cashflow from some of those other areas without necessarily taking from your ongoing bitcoin building and compounding..

From a discretionary stance, you could also decide to trim some profits from your bitcoin.. even if the regular amount that you are putting into bitcoin continues to be $30 per week and is really not very much.. and 7 years later, it may well seem that you could doubling the amount that you put into BTC to $60 per week (depending on your cashflow) without even feeling any real strain on yourself nor your budget.

The building of an investment portfolio seems to give options in terms of how much to continue to build on the areas that are BIGGER than the rest, but you could also reassess whether the BIGGER areas still have potential to grow or might you need to start investing in other areas or consuming or considering if you might get delayed in reaching your $2 million fuck you status goal, even if with our $500k scenario you would already be 1/4 of the way there after 7 years, which I guess I am suggesting that it should not necessarily take you an additional 21 years to make the other 3/4 (which is $1.5 million)... so maybe you are half way there, if you continue to let your BTC largely just compound upon itself... but a 4x in BTC price could also well take place within this particular cycle and then your concerns about being only 1/4 of the way to fuck you status just ends up happening a lot more quickly than you thought... not that I personally would be relying upon spot price to determine BTC portfolio value..and that is another potentially long story about how to value your BTC in order to pull the fuck you lever when the time comes.   

[JayJuanGee]

.....

gembitz is active again, is that a good or bad sign?

Rather than being either good or bad, it's probably a wee sign.

.....

that made me chuckle, jay, then I almost weed.

no wait...actually I grow weed....

....Alfred farted with such force .....

This stopped my scanning in its trax and made me read the whole post....

.....

Any sm post always stops me scanning...

.....

Dude seriously... get rid of that that "need 3 btc... urgently" nonsense in your avatar.
Its not doing you any favors.
If I had 10,000 btc to my name, I would not give you a single sat. And I'm pretty sure no one else would either in this thread.
Quit begging.

I have considered point 0.01 btc at ck solo pool on a rental.

and giving him eXPHorizon 0.0625 btc if the block hits.

but he would still most likely bitch and moan that I made 6.10 btc off him if I hit the block.

Oh gawd.. you are worse than the troll shill himself if you believe that he deserves anything for free... yeah, roll a random dice and give part of a winnings to a worthless beggar.. makes a lot of sense to me.
  Hopefully you are not encouraging others to give to the beggar too.  Do you realize that the beggar should probably be banned, and you are even suggesting giving him money?   Makes little sense philip, even if you are joking (which I believe that you are not joking).

  people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.

Nice little monologue Copetech, and it surely could have been worth a merit, perhaps? perhaps? except for your above lil factual misrepresentation... Might have been innocent.. perhaps?  perhaps? but it's not the first time that you have gotten some facts, logic and even conclusions wrong before based on such newbie citteee sloppiness Copetech..but hopefully you will get MOAR better with practice, practice and a wee bit more practice...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, I am not conceding that getting to regular fuck you status is necessarily difficult, and it should be coming down reasonably well in the coming years, whether this cycle or the next one.

Did you adjust for the mindrust factor?

Sure there is a mindrust factor, and I did not really account for it because there are a lot of dumb things that people do when they over invest and they gamble and then they end up doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Look, in my earlier post from just an hour ago, I just gave an example of our hypothetical fuck you aspirant, reaching $500k in 7 years based on $30 per week, so if that same hypothetical fuck you aspirant had invested more, then s/he too would already be at fuck you status or quite close to fuck you status.  We can even use the more conservative 208-week moving average.

If we use spot price of $39,000-ish (yeah we are currently having a dippening), then $30 per week gets us to $500k at that price, so under the same scenario we would appreciate that $120 per week would have gotten us to $2billion at spot price.. but personally I do not like spot price.

I think that in order to account for near inevitable BTC price volatility in a bear market we would use the 208-week moving average (which is currently at $14k) in order to be mostly safe to be accounting for the most severe of BTC price bottoms, and in a bull market we could get way with using the 104-week moving average (which is currently at $21k).

I personally feel safer to use the 208-week moving average, and I would not want to be pulling any fuck you lever or suggesting that others pull the fuck you lever on anything less than the 208-week moving average.

So, of course, fuck you status is still a bit further in the distance if we use the 208-week moving average, and it means that we would have needed to acquire at least 142.86 BTC by now in order to be at such status (and of course the actual spot price of 142.86 BTC is close to $6 million, but for BTC volatility purposes we are using the 208 week moving average to assess value).  So sure, we may well need more than 7 years and more than $120 per week. 

For illustrative purposes, I use 8 years and $250 per week to show that fuck you status could have been achieved in 8 years.... and sure of course that it is investing about $13k per year for the past 8 years, but divided on a weekly basis..and an overall total of $104,500 invested, and a 56.6x return... so a bit aggressive, but reasonably doable without being already rich.

Knowing Bitcoin volatility, I think there is a greater chance that more hodlers will get shaken out by a dip than new not-already-billionaire bitcoiners getting to 10x or even 1x FU. I predict (with no supporting data whatsoever, where's the fun in that) that future Bitcoin wealth will be heavily centralized and that we will have more plumbers than bitcoiners reaching the FU level.

Not a bad theory, but you seem to be not very confident in bitcoiners to HODL, but even if what you say is true, there does end up being some redistribution, and not necessarily all towards the institutional rich, and I personally believe that a decent number of nerdy tech types are going to be able to hang onto a sufficient number of their coins, too.. which creates some newer kinds of rich.

Now that I said that I'm genuinely curious what's the ratio. Judging by what they charge I think plumbers might already be winning.

Nueva rich plumbers.. perhaps?  perhaps?   Sure, some will get into bitcoin, but overall, I have my doubts about them really coming in disproportionately more than any other skilled business that is ready, willing and able to charge premium prices for their services.