This brother like a sharp rise….. hate a sharp dump
I would say that, so far in this particular correction over the past 5 days or so, we have not really had any sharp dump, and we have been bouncing around with a kind of gradual decline for the past 5 days or so, but we also likely can appreciate that gradual declines could lead to sharp dumpenings at some point too, in the event that a pumpening does not come first.
So, sometimes when guys start to get excited and talk about either the $28,600 bottom being "in" or speculating that we are going to be visiting new ATHs imminently, we gotta be careful about presuming too much UPpity before getting sufficiently out of the $30k-ish doldrums.
I don't want to be any kind of a negative nancy, for sure, but sometimes it takes some time to get through these kinds of consolidation periods - and surely these tend to bring decently good times for bitcoin newbies to get started and to have some time to set up accounts, do some learning about bitcoin and establish some kind of a bitcoin base - but never really seem to be the times that newbies are getting us out of these kinds of messes and establishing a good foundation for their lil selfies..
It's not too often that we hear about the newbies getting gung ho during periods like this, whether we are talking about in real life interactions or even the various interactions that we might have online... Do we see newbies coming to threads like this and proclaiming that they have set up bitcoin accounts, they are reading about bitcoin and that they are establishing their bitcoin base - sure it happens, but not that common of a dynamic... Seems to me that it is probably just various long time HODLers who continue to hodl, refuse to sell their coins and just picking up coins at the bottom to the extent that they can from time to time before we finally break out - presumably UPwardly at some point.....
Yeah, yeah, yeah.. like the rest of us longer term HODLers and accumulators, I would prefer to experience a wee bit MOAR UPpity (and especially breaking above $46k) sooner rather than later, but what you going to do, what you going to do in the meantime besides just live your life?
I mean that these should not be really especially trying times for us longer-term HODLers when we are looking at about 3.8x up from early September (so nearly 10 months now), but sure those folks entering in the past less than 6 months might be still nervous, but still have trouble appreciating the truly longer term investors being so nervous, even though I can appreciate that there are circumstances that the majority of the investment wadds could have been blown too early, including the buying of BTC on the dip all the way down from $50ks into the upper $40ks and then running out of the vast majority of investment cashflow before we even reached the $30ks.. but at the same time, since we have been in these $30k doldrums for about 2.5 months, there should have been some opportunities to pick up a few coins in the $30ks... and so that could be the bright side of this whole matter, including perhaps just continuing to have a bit more time to pick up some coins in the $30ks.. perhaps? perhaps? Actually, when you think about it, 2.5 months is not really a very long time to be in the duldrums.. so not sure if we are going to be here a lot longer and I suppose that some of the frustration does come because we are "supposed to be" in a bull market.. and gosh looking at 2013, we could see that there are possibilities to stay in a down doldrum for 6 months or so and still stay in a kind of bullmarket with a blow off top at the end.. and that one had gone 5x from the previous top and the blow off top played out in just a few months.. and for some reason it seems that our current situation would not end up playing out with too much similarity to the 2013 period.. but who knows?
Institutions already have "real" ETFs, just not in the US, other countries. Plus they can always buy holdings in MicroStrategy, and some other mining companies as proxies for BTC.
Of course, they can always appoint someone they trust, probably a small group in their company, to go directly buy BTC from the exchanges. They can buy from Gemini and Coinbase, those are US based too. That small group can then set up a multi-sig wallet or vault and have proper procedures for self-custody. 3-of-5 or even 3-of-7 multisig and each one has a backup appointed, so no 2 people can just steal it and those can all be tracked and whatnot..
Although with corporations that aren't very high tech or people who don't understand the tech as well as we do, it is still possible they get compromised, but this is unlikely.
They can also get service from unchained capital or casa or one of the other multi-sig providers.
BTC = BTC no matter where you buy it.
Sure Dabs, but seems to me that the excitement about possible US based ETFs has to do with so much US money being tied up into a variety of retirement funds that are way more conservative in terms of what they are willing and able to do in order to get exposure to their funds or the individuals within those funds to be able to select something with BTC exposure within the funds.
I do appreciate your point that with the passage of time, there are folks finding work around ways to get exposure to BTC, but I still think that there are a lot of folks who appreciate the officialdom of an ETF fund - because there does seem to be quite a bit of capitalization / accountability requirements in such a fund - even if it might have some weird ways of being designed in terms of how us direct BTC HODLers might consider to be BTC exposure.
It would be hard to imagine scenarios that a US based bitcoin ETF would not be bullish for bitcoin, and sure in terms of bitcoin's price going up, it is likely going UP whether there is an ETF or not, but we do live in a world that has a lot of financialization of a lot of products, so various kinds of financialization are seeming inevitable for bitcoin, whether they are more straight forward instruments, like and ETF or a large number of work arounds that might add up to very similar financialization dynamics, but merely with less straight forwardness.
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