Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

[1714046520]

1714046520

[1714046520]

1714046520

[1714046520]

1714046520

[1714046520]

1714046520

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

Blocks seem to be coming through perfectly fine. I'm guessing it's like that just because it is the start of the current epoch. mempool.space doesn't even put up an estimate for this early in the epoch, no doubt for this reason.

[vapourminer]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

so, we are all gonna get boned? again?

[naim027]

To be honest, I don't see the point in getting so complicated when you buy those amounts. If you buy amounts between $30 and $100, what you have to do is buy periodically and forget about what the market is doing. How much do your personal finances allow you to buy? $100 a week? A month? Buy that and forget about it.

Right. That's What I can afford from my savings and what I've mentioned is the suggestion for Average Joe. I usually Minning ETH With my Tiny 180 Mhs Rigs and turn it into BTC everyweek. of course, I also have some ETH so that I don't miss eth pump.

Another thing is that you tell me that you have been buying $100 a month for ten years and now you have many millions, so you have to consider selling in order not to have your wealth too concentrated in Bitcoin.

OMG, Where do you see that I told you I've been buying $100 a month for ten years and I have a few million? Nope, I didn't. Maybe you got me wrong or someone else wrote that? IDK.

[Torque]

Most important about mindrust =.......

He had invested X amount of FIAT and proudly announcement he had a positive exact amount of FIAT out of it.

Each person got his own goals, he achieved the goals he was chasing at.

I feel like over the years, we've seen these kinds of accounts come and go.

They come in, talk a big game about buying Bitcoin because libertarian ideology and how they are going to hodl forever.

Then in just a short time they quietly hit some pitiful goal and sell all, or quietly panic sell all.

Then they disappear from the forum, never to be heard from again.

Bitcoin has also been around a little while now. Many members of the community have passed away due to various issues. Some have gone to prison or fallen ill. I doubt it’s always about the money alone. While I’m sure there are plenty of people who have cashed out and are out living their dreams, I don’t know if we can assume that’s everyone’s story.

I guess what I mean is, although they put on a front, the whole "Bitcoin will change the world" idea is just a slogan to many of them.

It really *is* changing the world, and we are witnessing it in real time. But many were too busy focused on cashing out to fiat and making their small profit (to buy some trinket) to care.

[d_eddie]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

Could this be tied to miners relocated from China to Kazakhstan having energy problems?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

It’s dead.

Death by covid. Bear market, sure. CNBC know what they're talking about, It's obvious.

I don't even get WHY markets dump because of the news.
What do you do with all the fiat after selling your assets?
Or is it more about "sell before everybody else is selling, to get in again after everybody has sold"?

Last weekly candle was well in the red. So I think this is just people selling because they think the expected dump might go deeper because of the covid news. Any hopes of last weeks candle being a bear trap are gone. The dump goes on.

Dump? What dump? This tiny -10% setback will disappear on a yearly (even monthly) graph dwarfed by the enormous multi-10k daily candles of December!   Don't mindrust it now, brethren...  

Mindrust was quite a bit more than 22% or even more than 50% depending upon the price point where such dumpening is counted.. and surely he dumped his BTC in a quite unusual macro-market situation (peak of march 2020 liquidation event).. and I am not trying to excuse him, but just saying that this is not even anywhere near that but our correction/drop is surely greater than 10% and even more than double greater than 10%.

Agreed, I think we need to remain more conservative over utilising the phrase "doing a mindrust".

It's reserved for bear market bottoms, or otherwise post crashes, significant ones of at least 50%+. Dumping after a 22% correction from ATH is no where near this concept. Mindrust dumped at a 80% correction if not mistaken, from the $20K highs to the $4K lows. I'd argue that selling at $30K after a 50%+ correction would be doing a mindrust, even if not completely obvious at the time, but not at current prices.

Bare in mind that mindrust's dump came after Bitcoin moved from $4K to $14K and back down to $4K, it was a break-even sell. There was no money lost if not mistaken, only potential profit. One key lesson to learn from this experience is not just dumping at the lows as being a bad move, when price is oversold and at key long-term support, but not taking profits when price is up 3.5x is also an error if you feel over-invested.

While not defending mindrust for his manoeuvre, it's worth remembering he didn't lose any $ over this.

You seem to be correct dragonvslinux that any factual behind-the-scenes updates that we had received from mindrust had him proclaiming to have had been partially motivated to sell his whole around 10 BTC stash at around $4,500-ish during the March 2020 crashening was that he did not want his BTC holdings to go into the negative relative to the dollar.  So for sure, he was way overinvested (and he admitted so) because he ended up panicking after a short-term quickie correction of 50%-ish that had occurred over the previous day or so, and he was also seeming to closely be following some stupid-ass Masterluc theories that argued that the BTC price had to correct back into the $1,500-ish price arena (which would have been around our previous 2013 top) or at minimum BTC prices had high chances of returning to sub $2,000 prices, even if it could take a few up and down waves to play out.

It also seemed like this panic-selling was not only based on his $ value going in the red, like it did for most accumulators of the past 4 years at that time, but also because price went below a crucial level he considered to be a point of no return for price. Despite heavy accumulation leading up to this price. I assume this was the 200 Week MA that had been broken, at the time on the Daily chart quite convincingly as well (by around 25% if not mistaken). I'm not going to pretend like I wasn't concerned for the price around this time, but instead was more doubtful about a recovery back to $20K being possible by the end of the year, as I had been earlier in the year, as opposed to the idea of price going lower. But alas, mindrust wasn't convinced that price would hold this level on a Weekly scale, and panic sold.

There is a kind of mindset that exists with people who get too preoccupied with their BTC dollar valuations and fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate bitcoins existence as a pristine asset class.. or even an emerging pristine asset class that should cause and justify ongoing buying at any price and just waiting it out, but instead there sometimes is way too much attempts to time tops and bottoms and then ending up psychologically causing their lil selfies to NOT build themselves into HODLers rather than whiners and bitcoin naysayers.  Of course, Billy nocoiner is of a similar type and eXPHorizon and a few other nocoiner/or lowcoiner dweebs who we see posting their nonsense in this thread from time to time.

This mentality is also expected in any emerging asset class I imagine. Especially for those who have been invested for less time, and something that I can imagine doesn't effect you what so ever, but this $ value consideration is very relevant to most holders. Especially those in the past 2-3 years I'd assume. Knowing that you have DCA'd since 2013, I'd assume you've remained up for the past 6+ years. Whereas others who are newer to the market will likely first fluctuate between being up & down against their $ investment, thus much more difficult to ignore. Despite each individual being able to look at the same decade long history of Bitcoin's price movement, it's clearly a lot easier to acknowledge BTC as "pristine asset class" as you put it when your investment is UP, as opposed to when it's not.

Personally I was also happy to see my average DCA in 2019/2020 be in the red, as it motivated and inspired me to accumulate more. Much more so when it would be in the green. But this is because I always had a long-term vision than most new-ish-comers to the market, as well as a lot more conviction in making Bitcoin my primary reserve asset, unlike others who simply wanted to dabble or have some exposure to avoid missing out. Others who simply threw in X amount of fiat at $5K or $10K, generally remained skeptical throughout the entire bear market until price finally got back to $20K. No doubt many of them sold half their stash at this level, in order to only be invested with the house, in order to have less risk in an asset they didn't fully believe in. A lot of this is based on what you perceive Bitcoin to be, whether it's a speculative investment or a reserve asset.

Next week is important isn’t it. I feel like if we don’t start going up by the end of next week then the bull could be over. I’m prepared either way, obviously heavily leaning to wanting up but there are positives to both. Let’s see what happens.

Whoaza, LFC.

You are really caught up in this calendar year nonsense.

Whatever...

You do you.

I am going to remain skeptical regarding bitcoin having to conform to some kind of a calendar year schedule....

I'm also not tied to the doctrine of the calendar, despite so far not seeing the 4 year cycle broken, and considering it to remain relevant today. Until proven otherwise.

This is also because I'm anticipating a top in January/February, definitely not December, given the cycle has generally been 49 months as opposed to 48 months (4 years). One small factor that many have overlooked. A lot can happen in 3 months, as we saw from October-December in 2017 when price increased by 300%. Even a top at $70K in three months wouldn't invalidate the idea of a 4 year cycle for me either, it would only further reinforce it, but likely with much less downside than previous years, if there is a lack of parabolic blow off top. Maybe -65 or -70% rather than -80%, but that's just me. That said, I consider the logarithmic growth targeting $150K to be a lot more relevant than the S2F model, even if there is no time constraint, simply because statistically I understand it much better.

Furthermore many have been confused by Plan B's floor model it seems (completely misunderstood it), which isn't based on stock to flow, but his own understand of it. His $98K by November is merely pulling a number out of hat based on his own interpretation of the market, like many speculators have done so. S2F merely anticipates $83K being a fair price for Bitcoin by 2024, or $122K by 2024 depending on which upgraded version you look at. On average, a target of $100K by 2024, NOT 2021. He has also made it clear that price not reaching $98K by the end of the month, which now looks considerably less likely, doesn't mean that his S2F model is invalidated, but that his floor model is broken. They are independent models after all.

[tron4141]

It’s dead.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFH-DB5XsAYWKXp?format=jpg&name=medium

Let's come back to this in a few month's time.

[El duderino_]

[dragonvslinux]

Fear & Greed Index has reached 21 "Extreme Fear" today. Time to start feeling bullish again  



When was the last times Fear & Greed reached these extreme levels? Have a look at the green arrows representing extreme fear:



For over a month I've been feeling neutral, even slightly bearish short-term on price since $65K. Now the correction has reached my target, I've shed my short-term bearish bias.

Now that price has found support at the 0.618 on the shorter-term time-frames, I've gone for a high leveraged (10x) long position with tight stop loss  

DYOR

Of course, many of us assert that normies should NOT be screwing around with leverage, and I imagine any kind of leverage like that does need a decently sized stop loss.  

Couldn't agree more! Especially not 10x leverage, unless you are an experienced day trader looking at the 10/15/30 minutes chart, or 1hr at best.
3/4x leverage would be a lot more sensible when trading the 4hr or Daily, but personally was a eyeing up the short-term risk/reward, rather than medium-term.

I don't believe in stop losses also, but I can appreciate if anyone is playing with decently high levels of leverage then the stop loss will be a godsend.

Yeh neither do I, unless leverage trading, then it's a must. I don't mind losing 10% in trade, but I do mind losing 100%, even if only 0.3% of total holdings.

By the way you likely realize that we have not seen anyone wicks in recent times, and for sure there is an ongoing practice and dynamic for bearwhales to trigger stop losses prior to moving up.. and of course, a wick is not a prerequisite, but wicks do happen quite frequently to screw up the potentially prematurely order placements of leveraged guys.

Honestly, I had overlooked that so I appreciate your insight. Alas my trade didn't last long, I tightened up the stop loss to break-even when $55K was rejected, given price had moved 1% (+10% profit) above my entry ($54.6K) and my stop loss was previously 0.75% below (7.5% loss). As I said, this was only a short-term time-frame trade, the target for me was around previous resistance of $57.5K and $61K, nothing special manoeuvre. The reason being was knowing that if $55K was rejected, followed by price finding support again at $54K, then this merely confirms a bear flag pattern targeting $50K, and thus the risk/reward for a short-term high leverage long-term has passed imo. No doubt there will be another opportunity, whether at higher prices or lower prices, but price is irrelevant to the risk-reward ratio when trading.



Now price is around the same level, but instead despite finding support from a newly found accumulation zone around $54K, $54.5K has become short-term resistance, as opposed to having breathing room to the upside as was previously the case, while the short-term target would be a measly $55.5K, based on remaining within a bear flag structure. Obviously none of this is relevant to longer-term time-frames, only a short-term speculative trade, it's barely even relevant to mid-term time-frames. But the volume gap between $53K to $50K looks quite releant, especially given a bear flag targeting through it:



Ideally, this is where a bear trap wick can be seen, down to $49K-$50K strong volume support, and likely back upto $53K within a 4hr period. Am now remaining neutral again short-term until the bear flag is invalidated (price breaking above last weeks low of $55.6k), or otherwise $50K is re-tested. This would place the Fear & Greed Index further into the bulls favour, as well as shorts being over-leveraged I imagine.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

Still too early to tell!.. check again in a few days...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Several (non headline) articles I've read suggest that this Omicron carry on most likely has less severe symptoms.

Perhaps when the panic of politicians and hyper propaganda media dies off and some sense of using a few brain cells re-appears in the next few days markets including BTC will recover heavily.

[JayJuanGee]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

Holy shit Philip. questioning if shenanigans? or a future BTC price drop?  or the dumbass point that BTC price follows hashrate?  oh gawd...     Yeah.. we might be at the end of a four year cycle this calendar year or even within the next three quarters.. so yeah.. BTC price could drop largely.. but it is not because of lowering of BTC hashing power that might have happened within the first two hours of a new difficulty period.

Think about it.  You make your assertions 2 hours after the previous difficulty adjustment and you see big numbers projected for the next difficulty adjustment based on 2 hours worth of data and you believe that is noteworthy or representative of something significant beyond your inclinations to get excited?  Get the fuck out of here.  We need more data.. at least several days worth of data before getting all worked up over 2 hours worth of data (that's about 12 blocks which is about .5% of the total 2016 blocks)

To put our current hashrate matter in context, we had 9 positive difficulties adjustments in a row and the most recent difficulty adjustment was a mere minus 1.5%.. zoom out a bit.

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

[AlcoHoDL]

Several (non headline) articles I've read suggest that this Omicron carry on most likely has less severe symptoms.

Perhaps when the panic of politicians and hyper propaganda media dies off and some sense of using a few brain cells re-appears in the next few days markets including BTC will recover heavily.

I've stopped watching TV since 2016. Has the new mutation really caused so much fuss? Will go check some news sites...

Let's hope markets will come back to their senses, and price will resume UPpity soon.

[xhomerx10]

Something is up

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s

-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

 Seems as though China might still be messing with us.

source:  https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2021/11/26/multiple-mining-pools-are-facing-connectivity-issues/

"Major crypto mining pools including Binance Pool, F2pool, Poolin and ViaBTC are reporting connectivity problems, they said in their Telegram channels in the past 24 hours.

 • The issue is caused by domain name system (DNS) “pollution,” Binance Pool and Poolin said on their Chinese Telegram channels. F2pool also said the pool’s domain name is not being properly resolved.

 • The DNS is the internet service that converts domain names like coindesk.com into internet protocol (IP) addresses, which are strings of numbers. DNS poisoning can occur when a hacker redirects traffic from the domain name to an imposter website.

 • ViaBTC users are also reporting on Telegram that they are having difficulty accessing the pool. On its English Telegram channel, the pool acknowledged the issue but did not specifically mention DNS connectivity problems.

 • “The connectivity issues appear to be primarily affecting Chinese miners,” said Alejandro De La Torre, founder of ProofofWork.Energy consulting firm and former Poolin vice president. De La Torre thinks the Chinese government is likely interfering with the mining pools.

 • Binance Pool’s bitcoin hashrate is down 14% in the last 24 hours. F2pool has dropped almost 8% and ViaBTC has fallen by 7%, according to BIT Mining’s information platform.

 • A large part of the pools’ operations are located in China, which has vowed to eliminate crypto mining. While their hashrate does not come only from China, and they have said they plan to exit the country by year-end, the publication of material in Mandarin could be interpreted as courting its population.

 • Binance Pool, F2pool, and Poolin advised users to modify their DNS to solve the issue. Binance Pool said that a long term solution is to use a VPN to circumvent the country’s telecoms carrier."

[d_eddie]

Mid-low grade hopium from yesterday. Strictly for addicts.

On-Chain Analysis: Long-Term Holders Start Selling – Bitcoin Ready for Surge

https://beincrypto.com/on-chain-analysis-long-term-holders-start-selling-bitcoin-ready-for-surge/