To me that's not of much concern, the idea of remaining within the same range price has effectively been in for 12 months, without a parabolic top and after confirming a recovery, but
I can't speak for any investors or traders from the past year who think that $20K or $10K could end up getting re-tested, after getting in around $40K, simply because price has twice got rejected from $64K+. Each to their own I guess
Just watching the MACD turning Bullish on the 4hr....
Not surprised
I think it price were to go significanty lower, like sub $46.2K, then we would have seen it already. Despite the lack of quick recovery, there are more weak hands to flush out for stronger ones, about 10-month worth minimum, so it's not surpsing this may take a little longer than expected or usual, and until then a tight trading range will develop... above an accumulation zone non-ironically.
There's something off with your discussion of the possibilities of retesting $10k or $20k.. and gosh you might even come off as a bit bonkers to be suggesting that retesting of $30k has any kind of realistic chances.. been there done that, and that ship has sailed.
I don't think there's something off with my discussion at all, but other investors who are now considering these exact concepts, no doubt the ones from the past 10 months in the $30K-70K range, particularly around $40-$50K I imagine. For example those who don't want to see price drop to $20K or $10K or
"I have no idea how far price could drop pls help me sir" type price range. I see very little chance of it, but many are fearful of a bear market right now, without any idea how far price could drop, or any data to suggest such a theory. Many aren't even sure if this is still a bull market, as have very little grasp of being able to identify long-term bull vs bear. After all, they only know what a bull market looks like, and don't really understand the idea that price could re-test support, which it has. Like $30K and $40K all over again basically.
Who cares what the various vague other people think? I could give less than two shits about giving much if any weight to vague concepts regarding that people might think that we are no longer in a bull market. There were plenty of those same peeps who thought the same thing in May, June and July.. and those ideas did not pan out too well.
*Waves* I do! I find market psychology quite relevant, similar to the fear & greed index that others are drawn to in this thread, with May to July being a great example of it's relevance as well. I was expecting a much faster recovery back then, as were many others, but clearly there was a lot more panic selling from newer investors than anticipated. It's part of the evolving investor demographic that are investing in Bitcoin, as it's no longer people with much insight or knowledge about the currency or markets in general.
I personally find the mentality or others who are invested in Bitcoin quite interesting, especially their ludicrous theories, mainly because it's not representative or those who have been invested for a longer period of time, nor or users in this thread, or any statistical probability. Bare in mind that around 50% of investors are currently new, so obviously this changes the dynamic, whether you like it or not. Willy Woo has touched on this quite a lot, based on the blockchain data available, as well as exchange data. It's part of his argument for ending up in a super cycle based on the 100% increase in Bitcoiners every 2 years. Personally, I find it interesting, even if others do not.
This is why I can see price taking a little longer than usual to recover, due to the current price structure (or time structure I should say).
It does not necessarily need to take a lot of time to recover.
Never said it did, I was pointing out that I can see why price could take a longer than expected, exactly like in summer. It didn't need to in summer either, but it did.
Nobody should ever be scared to see healthy consolidation or a correction in a bull market. Patience is a virtue.
Many are fearful of the market right now, most of these are newbies who don't even know whether they should be buying, selling or hodling.
I doubt that is much different from previous cycles, and probably overall there is way more confidence in this cycle than there was in 2017... even though there are likely more DOWNity manipulation tools.. but even if there are more DOWNity manipulation tools, that does not mean that those DOWNity manipulation tools are going to be successful to stop the bull run that we are in, even if they seem to have been successful in undermining noman's land (at least temporarily).
What are these manipulation tools you talk of? Nobody ever talks about manipulation when price is going up, only down I see. Do you have any references?
As far as I understand a whale simply wanted to cash out or panic sell and decided the spot market was a good place for that, hence why price dropped so quicklyt.
Each to their own... it provided some great BTFD opportunities, so I'm not going to discourage any whales from that emotional behaviour!
Longer-term investors know there is no rush in these conditions, and simply take cheap Bitcoin as it comes back down to support.
Yes.,. .. so where is the balance going to be reached then?
To me the charts shows that this balance is already being reached, with the recent consolidation at support over the past few days. While newbies were panic selling, investors were accumulating. I can't say the same for the wick down to $42K, that looked more a cascade of liquidations, after a panic seller got impatient and started panic selling even quicker, not realising he/she/they were triggering such a crash.
Seems to me that we are in a bullmarket until otherwise, and who gives any shits about the scared newbies. Scared newbies get reckt in every bullrun.. so we need not be weighing them as if they were some kind of significant meaningful factor that we now need to take into account.. when there is already a tendency to run them over like a steamroller anyhow.
Personally I think the newbie mentality of around 50% of those invested in Bitcoin right now is extremely relevant, as it's a great signal of what not to do.
I'm sorry you fail to see the value in that, given how rekt they routinely get in bull markets, as well as bear markets.
I mean look at Billy for example, he's still waiting for $10K or whatever, and the reality is he's not the only one.
Fuck Billy...
He is hardly representative.
He is a troll at best, and if you actually believe that Billy actual represents any kind of meaningful person then you are likely delusional yourself.
He's not representative of most Bitcoiners no, but newbies are easily drawn to his and others mentality that price could drop 50%+ again from here, on a permanent basis it seems. Obviously I barely even think this is possible, without the black swan event you suggested, but this plays on many newbies emotions that are fast becoming a dominant force in this market.
I still remember in summer, when price rebounded to $40K, most newbie investors I knew were looking at a chart that was going viral with an arrow pointed to $10K or some similar stupid level, based on the idea that $40K rebound was a lower high and therefore price would go down. Claiming it was like 2017, without any real analysis to back up such a claim. The classic newbie becoming a TA expert overnight lol.
I literally had to draw a line to $1 million to show how anyone can draw a line on a chart, but without much explanation apart from "looks similar", it doesn't mean anything.
Sure, I know that anything can happen, but it seems that quite a bit of attention is being given to such highly unlikely scenarios.. and sure even you are saying that going below $46k could put some of those scenarios back into play.. but to me it seems that we would surely need pretty black swan events to be visiting $10k or $20k and we might even need a black swan event to get down to $30k-- even though of course, $30k has some kinds of outrageousness possibilities (maybe less than 15% odds?) that are quite a bit higher than $10k or $20k which seem to be less than 1.5% or 3% odds respectively..
Not sure where you heard me thinking that dropping below $46K would meaning creating lower prices than $30K, you must have me mistaken with those newer investors I referenced
I thought that you said that if we move below $46k then it opens up more likelihood for some of the lower numbers.. I am not mixing you up..
Lower numbers yes, it would likely open the door for $40K re-test, and below there I believe the bull market would end (closing below the 50 Week MA) and price would then consolidate between $30K-40K, or at least re-test the next level of volume support around $36K (which is between $30K-$40K for reference sake). Obviously another wick doesn't count, just like $42K meant nothing long-term.
So yes, if price moves down further I think it would go lower, but that doesn't mean I think the annual lows of $28K would be broken, far from it. I'm under the impression these lows will likely never be broken unless there is a black swan event. Simply because there has been considerable amount of institutional investment around $30-$40K to allow this to happen, they will instead defend their long-term positions.
As I've stated before, can't be bothered to quote, closing below key support would provide a good argument that the bull market is over, for now,
You see... you just said it again. You believe that the bull market is likely to be over soon.. and I think that we are quite a ways from reaching that conclusion.. even though I do understand that it is possible that there is no further UP.. and $69k ends up being the high for this cycle.. which means that the bull market is over.. I just think that it is a minority likelihood at this time which means that I believe that we are still in a bull market.. at least until we are not.
Again, you misunderstood me. I said
IF price moves below key support, which it has not done so. As I've said repeatedly in this thread, I see no evidence that the bull market is over, again you have misunderstood my analysis. Finding support in the $49K-51K only made me more certain that price is in a bull market, not less. Recent price action has fortunately proved so far that we are still in a bull market.
I also think now based on price structure that if the bull market ends, given the wide $30K-70K range in the past 10 months (fact not opinion), I don't see a bear market starting either, but further consolidation.
and that given price is in a trading range of $30-70K,
Oh gawd.. that is way too damned broad.. I doubt that we are currently in a $30k to $70k trading range..
Please have a look at the chart, price has been between $28K and $69K for the past 10 months, so I was rounding. This has been the trading range, unless you know of other trades that have been occurring OTC or otherwise outside of this range, this IS the current price range
long-term. Nor am I implying that price is stuck on that range, but that trades have been occurring between these prices.
This is fact not opinion.
Probably we could assert that we are currenty in a $45k to $55k trading range.. probably too early to call, exactly because we just corrected down to $41,967 a few days ago.. so currently in the midst of a bounce back from that.. and let's see where it goes and if we get back into noman's land.. which seems likely to me.. but hey.. we are not there, yet.
Of course, in the shorter-term, price is currently in a $46K to (checks price) $52K range. You could even say it's in a $42K to $61K range longer-term. It's all depend on time-frame, not opinion nor perspective.
it's most likely to stay there - maybe for another year.
I doubt it.
Please avoid misquoting me, given how often you misunderstand me. I don't mind the misunderstandings, but the misrepresentations are simply quite rude. I said if price drops below key support, we'd likely remain in the same wide trading range for another year, as we have done so already for nearly a year in a healthy manner. This is simply as if key support is broken, it'd confirm this 10 month trading range has been consolidation, not a continued uptrend as I currently believe is the most likely theory based on available data. Obviously this consolidation hasn't been confirmed, this was a
what if scenaio. These theoretical scenarios DO NOT imply that I think they were happen, hence they are theories. I think this is much of the confusion here, I'm discussing cause and effect, not most likely scenarios here.
Why bother with these unlikely theories? Because people are curious as to what is likely to happen if support breaks, and as I said it's much less of a concern than 2013 or 2017 bubble pops.
Also the obvious of being prepared for any scenario, so as to never be surprised, confused or upset about price movements, and simply benefit from adequate risk management.
Not something I've really considered as that likely either, or necessarily that worrying, although sure anything is possible.
Seems like a minority scenario, but hey you can frame your tentative theory any way that you like. I prefer to stick with stock to flow, the four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects as still being driving forces that are keeping up in a likely bull market. and $70k just happens to be around the middle of Noman's land.. Hey.. I might have to readjust noman's land based on this latest correction to call the new noman's land to be $61k to $96k or something like that... to early to reformulate that aspect.. because we are still in the midst of recovering from the liquidation of longs that dropped us to $41,967 and to figure out how much of a bounce we are going to have or if we might get stuck in pre-noman's land prior to reentering the tentatively new noman's land.
Agreed, I also think it's a minority scenario, given the bull market has recently shown it's strength and confirmed itself further with a pattern of long-term support holding. We're certainly more in a bull cycle now after re-testing this support than we were when price was rejected from ATH, that much is certain statistically speaking. Now we have a solid pattern of price consistently finding support, it's extremely healthy.
I'm merely considering all the possibilities here, as I always do. So far price remains predictable and taking the most probable outcome, even more so since the crash. Rejected from resistance, bouncing from support, etc. That's why I'd consider the current 10 month long wide trading range to remain in tact, if price moves below key support. This doesn't mean price will drop below key support either.
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