Yesterday's sell-off wasn't related to the derivate markets, nor to a rush of hodlers to sell in fear of a bear market. So, this probably means that OTC desks are the culprit and possibly highly involved in the last month selling pressure. Whether it is one rotten whale or a bunch of hedge companies looking for some profit at the end of the year is irrelevant. These were just some ill timed big sales in a bull market. Now there is no reason for this to continue much longer - the supply of coins on exchanges continues to decline (unlike 2017), open interest and high leverage longs are no more, no FUD, ban, etc. news are around.
Historically, each bigger sell-off continues maximum one month after the local top, so we must be close to a reversal now. Perhaps the only thing in favour of the bears is the fear that 69K was the top of the cycle and it will be followed by a 85% correction. And probably this will lead to more high leverage shorts than before and less high leverage longs. In that case, we definitely will see at least one big short squeeze in 2022. As seasoned hodlers we know that if 95% of the traders expect a certain movement, in reality the opposite happens. It is too early to tell but may be the time has arrived when we see no more 2-3 year bear markets. Instead, a new pattern may be formed: 2 months of some increase, followed by 1-2 months of a correction, cleansing the weak hands, and resuming the upward movement.
Good luck with your 85% draw down in the event that $69k had been the top for this cycle.
We already had a 56% correction (from $64,895), and we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967.
So an 85% correction would be right around $10k... which is a bit more than half of the current 208-week moving average (which is currently over $18k and in recent times has been moving up close to 100% per year.. but such growth could slow down to 50%-70% per year)... which makes sub $20k quite unlikely, especially that we have had a couple of decently sized BTC price corrections since after we had our 6.5x/6.9x price appreciation from early September 2020... peaking in April 2021 at $64,895 and also so far peaking November 9, 2021 at $69k.
You are describing some weird-ass shit if you are expecting anything even close to an 85% current.. and especially if we would expect anything other than a perhaps downity spike... that would likely hardly be sustainable.. especially once we take the 208-week moving average into account.
I will grant that sub $30k (65% down-ish) BTC prices are way more likely and also getting down to $20k (71% down-ish) would not have impossible odds.. even if they really seem like they would be quite low odds to get that far down given the BTC price corrections that we already had this cycle and how they had so far played out.
I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..
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