Overly complicated - The House That Jack Built with Doomed (Domed) house.
I think that covers it. Basically there is a fake rounding top, there is a dip, price recoveries, then goes higher... no need to over complicate the concept imo.
March 2020 was also technically still in a bear market, at least with a lower macro high and a 50% drop already. So although a rare liquidity event, it's not something to wait patiently for in a bull market.
I agree with quite a bit of what you said in your post, but the technical definition of a bear market in terms of bitcoin can go fuck itself, as far as I am concerned.
That's fair enough, given in the
long long-term, Bitcoin has never been in a bear market you could argue. It's never
really broken below the 200 Week MA.
I guess I mean mid-term bear market was what made the covid crash possible, whereas the technicals are very different right now.
I had stated this a number of times that it seems that bitcoin has been in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019.. we have not bounced out of such bull market even if there were several pretty decently large corrections along the way, including in late 2019 and then again March 2020..
The discussion is totally subjective really. You can consider it part of the bull market, or a mini-bear within the bull market, or simply that the bear market never ended.
I can see value in each side of the theory really. A 75% drop in a bull market ($14K to $3.5K) doesn't sound bullish to me, but each to their own.
- and I could give less than two shits if you want to proclaim "technically" blah blah blah -
You mean like technically
"in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019" which is what you claimed ? Sounds like a technicality to me
it largely seems to me that those kinds of assessments are way too likely to cause people to misunderstand what the fuck is going on, including but not limited to a kind of exponential s-curve adoption that has not really stopped in it's Uppity since April 2019...
I'd argue considering price to still be in the bear market during the covid drop would have been quite helpful, instead of thinking that a bull market had just ended. Then more people would have been confident enough to buy the 200 Week MA, knowing it was simply the second re-test of long-term support, exactly like in 2015 (even if price structure was different), rater than thinking a bear market had started that would take a(another) year to cover. There are people who prefer the complexity of bull to bear bull or whatever, than the simplistically of bear market over, even if that's what happened. To each their own I say.
also within a four year fractal that is described by PlanB's stock to flow model, which also has not been negated inspite of some of the corrections that have happened since April 2019.
True, but this doesn't confirm the bear market ended in 2019 either, but that the bear market itself didn't negative stock to flow, similar to previous cycles.
Though I do admire Tone Vays for waiting from $5K to $14K before buying at $4.5K. Most of the bulls had turned to bears by then, but he had finally turned bullish and bought the dip!
I recall that at some point Vays did flip to bullish at some point... but he was calling for a need to revisit lower $1ks (which would have been the high from 2013)
He largely got taken out of context for this one to be fair, he said the lowest price could
realistically go would be $1K, but otherwise considered $2K/$3K to be sufficient, even $4K. His main argument was that $6K would break and lead to lower lows, much less the $1K target. which he was 100% correct about in fairness. That was "hyperwave theory" that has now been disproved, fortunately.
but his whole dominance in technicalities did also seem to fail/refuse to acknowledge and account for various bitcoin fundamentals..
This is completely true. While Will Woo was accumulating the lows based on on-chain data (which you could argue is based on fundamentals), he saw the technicals as remaining bearish and being too open-minded to the idea of $1K. Not to mention completely overlook how the liquidation of shorts could cause a rise not just to $5K, but $10K, even $15K.
Fortunately he accepts how wrong he was about buying $4K and selling $5K (lol), instead of selling >$10K (as a trader of course). Then he would have 2x more BTC than currently, given that he did manage to put his hodl stack back in at $4.5K. But the fact he sold a lot of that stack between $6K-8K means he wasn't really getting much of a good deal out of the price swings either.
Again he's another good lesson to learn for newbies; don't be like Tone became a common consideration. He's pretty good at timing bull markets and the end of them, after declaring the end at $17.5K due to the rejection of a lower high, as well as 2014, but clearly awful timing end of bear markets. I think a lot of his reputation was initially based on being right about the end of the bull, so people assumed he'd be right about the end of the bear.
although for some reason I do not recall seeing as much of his technical analysis after the April to June 2019 3.5x Uptrend.. and so I do recall him admitting that he did not see that coming....
Probably cos lots of people unsubscribed when he took profits around $6K-8K on the way up, in the meantime the $1K hyperwave guy was buying it
so he was kind of proven wrong there, but still persisted with some of his failure/refusal to appreciation BTC fundamentals -and attempts to save face technical analysis...
I'll correct you there, he was completely wrong in 2019. He only managed to regain face in 2020 when he was still waiting for sub $5K while everyone laughed at him, and then it eventually happened.
You could generally argue that he got lucky with that, but whether luck or skill he was right after all. Selling at $17.5K and buying at $4.5K is some good accumulation overall I'd say.
Poll
