I think that everyone should ponder this question: why this cycle so far did not pan out as expected by almost EVERYBODY?
That's an unfair characterization.
Sure, there are some people who likely assigned high probabilities to some level of new ATH above $69k UPpity to play out by November/December as if BTC were on some kind of a schedule.. but I doubt that it is really fair to assert (as you did) that "everybody" felt some variation of that.. and numerous times, I asserted that bitcoin is not on a schedule and even I left for some openness in the timeline. .. you think that I am unique? You believe that all other people were expecting some kind of guaranteed UPpity?
I am nobody special in terms of attempting to characterize how people likely feel or speculate about BTC price... Sure a lot of people might express themselves by using absolute terms, but if they actually really believed that BTC prices were guaranteed to keep breaking ATHs above and beyond $69k they would have put their life savings (maybe even 100%) into bitcoin... .and the vast majority of people do not do those kinds of things..
I just don't believe that hardly any people believe that there was some kind of guaranteed UPpity.. even though you are saying that everyone is disappointed.. that's ridiculous..
Sure maybe a very small minority of people thought that there was some kind of a guarantee and by definition a very small minority could not be reflective of what "everybody" thinks...
Your exaggeration comes off as a form of trolling and finger pointing... remember notlambchops used to do that..? point and laugh at us... and surely not a genuine poster he was not.. and sure there are some other participants in this thread currently who don't own any significant or meaningful amounts of BTC and point at any kind of possible negative BTC price performance or lack of up and say "I told you so."
I personally still believe that we are in a real good place.. especially compared with last year around this time when we were just crossing over $20k for the first time and especially if we go back to September 2020 when we were stuck in the ballpark of $10k for a while.. and could not really get above $10k and stay above $10k for any kind of meaningful stretch of time for about two and a half years of time before that.
To some it might mean that the exponential boom-bust cycles are over.
Yes... some do like to get premature in their anticipations of calling an end to some kind of phenomenon without any evidence beyond mere conclusory assertions and surely before the end actually has come.
Good luck with that Biodom, you will need it... and even you should realize that there are some folks who truly wish for the end of exponential booms in bitcoin and many folks wishing for stability of BTC prices (which does not really happen in bitcoin), so hard to assert disappointment if such a stability thing were to actually happen.. and surely I would ascribe the end of exponential booms as a long-shot theory.. so I will believe the end of exponential booms (and busts) when I see it.. and if an exponential or blow off top does not happen by the 3rd quarter, I might start to concede that such blow off top is not happening this cycle, perhaps? But, surely we gotta get there first.. which if you had not noticed, when bearwhales manipulate the BTC price downity for so long, there is almost no choice except to get another blow off top..
In udder wurds.. bitcoin no doesn't work like that.
We get all kinds of overshoots in both directions in bitcoin and such high levels of volatility have happened very recently too, if you had not been paying attention.. so proclaiming that the overshoots are just going to miraculously stop in one direction? We likely need more evidence than your mere bold and bald assertion of the end of such exponential UPs.
And, gosh a stacking up of shorts or on the other hand a stacking up of longs also seem to provide fuel for those kinds of ongoing explosive happenings.. .people like to bet and then they get their asses handed to them.. and why would those kinds of explosive reckenings just suddenly end.. merely because Biodom says (or asserts it to be so?).
To me it means that bitcoin is in transition: it has to go over the technological chasm from the early adopters to early majority.
It's possible that there could be some kind of a chasm.. but seems that you might be making shit up and trying to describe bitcoin in a way that is not really applicable to what is actually happening.. I would not be asserting that the various battles in bitcoin are not over, but it seems to me that bitcoin has already gone over quite a few chasms in terms of so many network effects continuing to build in a large variety of ways, whether we are referring to mining or individual adoption, or institutional increasingly adding into their treasuries, governments playing around with bitcoin in a variety of ways including some examples in El Salvador, a variety of new financial instruments coming onto the market, even various expansions of the lightning network and some other second layer expansions, and likely there are a lot of other examples of various network effects..
So likely the growth in bitcoin's adoption and networking effects remains ongoing and incremental and crossing over a variety of previously considered barriers, and where would the chasms be in the way? I suppose that each of us can assess these kinds of matters involving fundamentals however we like.. even if we are making things up in our heads about some supposed chasm that supposedly exist and supposedly need to be crossed.
The volatility in that is less than during "innovators" and "early adopters" stages, but still significant with periodic setbacks.
You probably need to back up your assertions a wee bit MOAR better.. It's not even easy to go along with that idea to consider what you might be talking about.. you mean that lightning network is not quite expanded enough, perhaps? Seems a stretch whatever it is that you are referring to and propagating.
I am perfectly fine if the four year cycles are mostly gone and we are simply in a price discovery mode.
I expect the prices much higher eventually, but short term the price seems chaotic (does not really follow any prior predictions).
Way too soon to call "chaotic" out of what we currently have in front of us...
but what else is new to be coming out of your usually doomedly and gloomedly inclined keyboard?It zigs when it was "supposed" to zag, etc. This 'perversion' actually started in 2019, but most people dismissed it as a one-off aberration.
Remember "the fractal" idea? It fit for a while. All TA guys seem to be befuddled if not outright 'amused' by the current situation.
I see no idea why the fractal would not still be in play, and TA of various guys is all over the place, so you should not be lumping all TA guys together as if they agree on matters and they all had failed.
So many folks hoping for the death of S2F.. it is far from dead.. even if PlanB might give up upon it.. which even from the tweet that you cite from a couple of days ago, he seems quite far away from giving up upon the model. In that tweet PlanB said: "I actually like being at the lower bands. In fact I published the model at the lower bands in March 2019 with btc below 4K."
Remember his assertion is that the average BTC price (I believe that he is referring to weighted average) for this halvening period is supposed to be $100k, and we are not even half way through the halvening period.. I suppose the half way point
will come around March / April 2024.. so then there would be about two years and 3 months more before the next halvening period begins.
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