Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

For those who want green bitcoin only.

“Norwegian #Bitcoin is super green.
100% of the country's energy supply comes from wind and hydropower.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/green-oasis-for-bitcoin-mining-norway-has-almost-1-of-global-btc-hash-rate

Fuck that nonsense label.. green bitcoin.  Who fucking cares, unless you want to play into the "green" attack vector.

Bitcoin's are totally fungible so stop fucking around trying to assert that some bitcoins are better than others or some bitcoin are worse than others.... you are just playing into artificial frameworks that are not so much related to bitcoin except to attack bitcoin..,. best way to win, is not to play.. as the saying goes..,. or just to tell them to fuck off whenever such nonsense is raised.

And bitcoin mining is not ONLY carried out to mine new bitcoin, but to secure the bitcoin already in existence and any potential transactions happening at the time of the mining.

Energy is going to need to come from all kinds of sources, and no problem if a decent amount of that might be produced from wind, hydropower, geothermal, solar or whatever other means that are considered to be less costly to capture... and perhaps fewer externalities as well.... whether that energy is used for mining bitcoin or otherwise is likely user's choice..

By the way, I heard an interview of that twat Chris Larsen on Pomp's podcast several days ago, and when Pomp attempted to describe various ways that bitcoin might be mined prior to that energy being available for retail, Larsen proclaimed that he wanted to ONLY focus on energy that is available for retail and therefore assert that the retail energy might be used for better reasons than to mine bitcoin... .. Fuck Chris Larsen.  

One of the aspects of incentives behind bitcoin mining is that it is likely going to create all kinds of innovations in the energy sector by both using energy that had not previously been used (or available for retail) and also potentially causing the price of energy to go up at the retail level in some areas as well... but in the end, the benefits of bitcoin being involved in energy consumption are likely going to continue to outweigh the costs (partly because of the innovations that bitcoin will likely contribute towards, but just benefits in having bitcoin in itself, secured)... but so many folks are going to fail/refuse to recognize that the various benefits of bitcoin mining outweigh the costs because they fail/refuse to even understand  what bitcoin is or even what is bitcoin mining or whatever they are fearing about bitcoin's supposed (or should I say imaginary?)  high energy usages (relatively speaking).

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[1713500713]

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[ImThour]

And bitcoin mining is not ONLY carried out to mine new bitcoin, but to secure the bitcoin already in existence and any potential transactions happening at the time of the mining.

+1. Mining is the only way to secure the network which is active, passive being the code itself which is on blockchain.

[ImThour]

Some On-Chain Data:

Whale Shadows: This indicator shows when bitcoins that have not moved onchain for many years, finally move again.

10yr+


7-9yr:



MVRV Z-Score: MVRV Z-Score is a bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.




Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC: Live bitcoin chart showing the number of unique addresses holding at least 1,000BTC.




Stock-to-Flow Model: Stock to flow is a forecasting tool for Bitcoin price. As the amount of bitcoins to be mined reduces over time, the stock to flow number (s2f ratio) increases, as supply coming onto the market is reducing.




Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/

[Cryptotourist]

You must be ironic. Your cuntonian call-outs are a strong hint.

Not at all. I wish for everybody the best - including the cuntonians.
But there are different levels of “love”. Allow me to elaborate.

I love nullius, Lauda and Torgue for example, and anyone else who does his own diligence, calls out the liars, and values uncensored free speech.
I can’t say the same for suchmoon (bitcointalk’s own “Fauci”) even if blame them both for human killing/genocide.
That doesn’t mean I would like to see Fauci hang in the Times square. On the contrary, I will defend his right to live as everybody else.
If that isn’t - indirect -  real love, then what is it?

Real love doesn't condemn, though.

True that. My swearing and insulting is not to condemn, but rather to try and balance things out.

"Love is the most misunderstood part of humanity" (wonky translation).

Love is the most FORGOTTEN part of humanity, all thanks to TV and MSM propaganda.

A single day!!!  now its 41 days.

Indeed, but that’s not what I said. Read it again you fuck.

~ Cryptotourist has absolutely rekt our accounts, so I have to push the narrative now, fuck meee ~

It sucks to be you!

Keep on trolling buddy, it provides some amusement while we spend some time consolidating in the mid $40k range.

I will, can you fuck off for me now?

Happy Birthday Satoshi (It's Hal for me)

I guess you didn’t pick up my suggestion. Hmmm.
Why do you insist on telling us that? [ +2 BoD]

A divine signal to buy or short? 

How about a divine human signal to start fucking off? [+3 BoD]

The UK is the poster child for the folly of trying to keep currencies stable. Just ask Soros.

+1 WO’s merit.
Watching chart buddy post in his new avatar, absolutely gives me the giggles - every single time. Thank you for that.

some extremely talented and dedicated individuals out there working on this game changing project called bitcoin

thank you

+1 WO’s merit.
That said, it does remind me of the NFT fuckery, only on Bitcoin instead of the prime shitcoin.
Will have to look into it further.

I want this cup.

You can have the cup, I want the sweetie.
+1 WO’s merit.


Goodnight, good morning and good evening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2euqyXXjmAo

[Toxic2040]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

S2F is not significantly or materially disrupted, yet..

Sure S2F might be delayed or it might need to be adjusted.. but it is not disrupted.


#justsaying

delayed or adjusted  == disrupted.

Hahahaha

Fair enough..

We can disagree on that point, even though it is a fairly reasonable semantical point....

You may have already noticed that I have a bit of triggering in me when I just get somewhat irritated by some of the prematurity of the attacks (and denigrations) on the S2F model, and perhaps PlanB brought some of these kinds of attacks on the model upon himself when he has been making claims (even in much of 2020 when the BTC price was underperforming the model's expectations) that if x price does not occur by y date then S2F is broken and blah blah blah nonsense (then he was making similar kinds of claims in late 2021 that if certain BTC prices are not met by certain dates then the S2F model is broken.. blah blah blah).... .

One of the kind of surprising recent BTC price dynamics is that throughout much of the late 2020 to early 2021 BTC price run, the BTC prices caught up to where they should have been within the S2F model's expectations, which then seemed to had caused PlanB to become even more dogmatic about the "greatness" of his model, and it seems to me that models are not supposed to be dogmatic pieces.. so I am not sure whether PlanB was bringing on the attacks through his dogmatism or maybe he was somewhat forced into taking such ongoing dogmatic positions...  ..

Anyhow... from my point of view, there is a whole hell of a lot of prematurity of judging some kind of failure in the S2F model when we are barely even half way through this halvening period.. and I believe part of the claim of the S2F model is that BTC prices would average $100k for this whole halvening period..

So yeah, so far (during this halvening period), the BTC prices have averaged ONLY a bit more than $34k so far (can be seen through the 100-week moving average), so there is a lot of BTC price that needs to be made up in the next two years in order to go from an average of $34k so far to bring that average up to $100k by the end of the halvening period.....

At the end of the four years, we would be looking at the 200-week moving average to see where that average price is to determine if it has yet gotten up to an average of $100k for the past 4 years by the time we get to March/April 2024.  Currently the 200-week moving average BTC price is ONLY at about $21k.. so a lot of BTC price to make up in that one in the next two years, too...

For those who want green bitcoin only.

“Norwegian #Bitcoin is super green.
100% of the country's energy supply comes from wind and hydropower.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/green-oasis-for-bitcoin-mining-norway-has-almost-1-of-global-btc-hash-rate

That's news to me. I've heard of the Norwegian blue, but not the Norwegian green.

People just need to learn how to make solar panels at home, there are tutorials on youtube. The way to do this is to lift the burden from the big energy producers and make prices dirt cheap and everyone complains less. As long as they have something to call up the shots with, then it does not make anyone free.    

How about people can print out solar panels on their printer, just like printing guns.... virtual guns (in the sense that bitcoin has similar power as guns, just less kinetic energy).

[OutOfMemory]

You must be ironic. Your cuntonian call-outs are a strong hint.

Not at all. I wish for everybody the best - including the cuntonians.
But there are different levels of “love”. Allow me to elaborate.

I love nullius, Lauda and Torgue for example, and anyone else who does his own diligence, calls out the liars, and values uncensored free speech.
I can’t say the same for suchmoon (bitcointalk’s own “Fauci”) even if blame them both for human killing/genocide.
That doesn’t mean I would like to see Fauci hang in the Times square. On the contrary, I will defend his right to live as everybody else.
If that isn’t - indirect -  real love, then what is it?

I understand (...i think), which let's me see many of your posts here in a slighty different light now.
To your question: It's respect for life, at least. To keep it short and not make it a love-only discussion: Love doesn't value. Hate, fear, grudge and the likes are just examples for states defined by complete absence of love.
Can't say too much about credibility or authenticity of (long-time) forum members, but it's not that important to me either, because i'm mainly here to discuss, gather and share knowledge, as well as not to forget the fun. I always hated to debate with Nully, as you might have noticed sometimes, but he seemed to be quite noble and trustworthy. One of the few i'd enjoy to read again from in these here parts.

Real love doesn't condemn, though.

True that. My swearing and insulting is not to condemn, but rather to try and balance things out.

Still seems a lil unbalanced to me, i mean quantitatively*. Does it make you feel good? If not, why keep doing it?
(*does this term even exist? But you know what i mean, no?)

"Love is the most misunderstood part of humanity" (wonky translation).

Love is the most FORGOTTEN part of humanity, all thanks to TV and MSM propaganda.

I recon we are both right in this point.
MSM drives fear, massively. I gave up watching TV a good decade ago. For reasons.

I want this cup.

You can have the cup, I want the sweetie.
+1 WO’s merit.

I wonder if i was the only one thinking the same. Most certainly not  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Market crashes everytime he posts his company's buying. :3

Then I hope you appreciate my quick posting on the WO for you to short the market!

Hahahaaha

Yeah... good one.

Put your money where your mouth is (referring to ImThour).

We know that is not going to happen.



hahahaha  

Market crashes everytime he posts his company's buying. :3

Then I hope you appreciate my quick posting on the WO for you to short the market!

Thanks for reminding me that I am on the right track, already on short from $47,900.

Ok... now you are going to start to post your supposedly "winning" trades?  These kinds of posting streaks usually do not last too long.. we get some smart-asses posting about how smart they are, but it usually does not take very long for them to actually be shown as either losers in the market or full of shifting narratives.

I know you are all strapped in by now.  I would say it's time to check the straps and all the systems.  

I would say that there are still quite a few folks, even regular WO participants who are not really very prepared for UP... there are quite a few still playing around with shorting BTC and trying to time the ups and the downs.. which is likely a losers approach unless, there is an overallocation towards holding the vast majority of the BTC and accumulating BTC and not gambling with principle.

Don't get me wrong.  I do sell BTC on the way up.. but you also gotta recall that I have been in BTC for more than 8 years, and I did not sell one BTC until after already having had been in BTC for nearly 2 years and having had established my BTC position pretty well by that time, so in that regard the amount of BTC that I sell remains so damned low (relatively speaking to my total holdings, my holdings in other investments and various other personal considerations)..

When attempting to manage a BTC portfolio, systems can be established in which the UP more than makes up for any BTC selling that takes place, and that is largely because someone in a position like mine had already over-allocated in 2014/2015.. so even though the BTC price kept going up since that time, I did not really reallocate value back into fiat in any kind of meaningful way even though the allocation of BTC value continued to grow and grow and grow relative to the other investments (even if it only amounts to more than 0.63 BTC or whatever).

In other words, what I am trying to say is that there are likely ways that guys (and gal too) can overallocate value into BTC.. but still not be engaged in gambling practices, and I would not even be suggesting at all that normies can engage in anything close to the same kinds of leveraging and overallocations that Saylor has been doing in order to be overallocated and prepared for BTC uppity.... Saylor has a unique circumstance in terms of ongoing cashflow that he has and also his ability to negotiate very long-term financial terms for the various financial instruments that he has been using to leverage fiat and to purchase bitcoin with that.

The longer that any of us have been into bitcoin, the more that we should have been able to figure out how much to allocate into bitcoin in order to prepare for UPpity... and how to manage our BTC holdings relative to our own situation  and relative to our other investments.

I used to suggest that 1 to 10% allocation into bitcoin is sufficient for a newbie, so anything above 10% would be overallocation.. and then not reallocating after price appreciation could still be considered "overallocation."  These days I am suggesting that newbies start with 1-25% allocation into bitcoin, so allocating more than 25% would be overallocation - however, each of us needs to assess for ourselves in terms of what other investments we have in order to determine whether 25% in bitcoin might be overallocation or not... so for example, if you do not have any other investments, then you may well start out with investing more than 25% of your investments into bitcoin, and that would not be considered overallocation.. because if you do not have any other investments, then by definition, you are in the early stages of just building your investment portfolio, and maybe at that point your only investment would be BTC, so maybe you only have BTC and cash, so at that point maybe you would have way more allocation into BTC.. even something approaching 80% BTC 20% cash - presuming that the 20% also accounts for your emergency fund and your ability have pretty decent ideas about your cashflow 6 months to 24 months into the future.. so those matters should also be considered when determining how much to allocate and determining from your own perspective if you are overallocated into bitcoin, if so by how much and if so whether you have gotten more options from the overallocation or if you are merely under more stress because of your choice to over-allocate into such a likely to be ongoingly volatile asset class (one of the most inevitable knowns of bitcoin remains that it is likely to continue to be volatile for the next 5-20 years if not more).

By the way, I should make the disclaimer that I am not giving any financial advice.... you fucks.. this is the interwebs... In other words, you should be figuring out this kind of shit on your own and in terms of your own circumstances.. and your own views of bitcoin as compared to other assets in which you could invest.. and I pity the fool..  if you fail and refuse to sufficiently and adequately invest in bitcoin..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

S2F is not significantly or materially disrupted, yet..

Sure S2F might be delayed or it might need to be adjusted.. but it is not disrupted.


#justsaying

delayed or adjusted  == disrupted.

Hahahaha

Fair enough..

We can disagree on that point, even though it is a fairly reasonable semantical point....

You may have already noticed that I have a bit of triggering in me when I just get somewhat irritated by some of the prematurity of the attacks (and denigrations) on the S2F model, and perhaps PlanB brought some of these kinds of attacks on the model upon himself when he has been making claims (even in much of 2020 when the BTC price was underperforming the model's expectations) that if x price does not occur by y date then S2F is broken and blah blah blah nonsense (then he was making similar kinds of claims in late 2021 that if certain BTC prices are not met by certain dates then the S2F model is broken.. blah blah blah).... .

I'm not one of those to jump on a bandwagon, feel free to go back and check my history.

I have said S2F was broken from day 1.

It does not take into account the institutional fuckery going on.

Derivatives and fractional reserve naked shorting are skimming off by my guess 15-20% of the cap across the board (which btw is about how much out of wack stf is on a cursory glance) and if people do not stop supporting the actors that are doing this it will only get worse until bitcoin is manipulated just like gold and that is what the scumbag bankers ultimate goal is in this space.

Paper bitcoin is their goal to our detriment and that was not satoshi's dream.

[Hueristic]

[NoorulHuda]

Dominance of Public Bitcoin Miners Jumps Nearly Sixfold in 15 Months
https://decrypt.co/97003/dominance-public-bitcoin-miners-jumps-nearly-sixfold-15-months

[philipma1957]

S2F is not significantly or materially disrupted, yet..

Sure S2F might be delayed or it might need to be adjusted.. but it is not disrupted.


#justsaying

delayed or adjusted  == disrupted.

Hahahaha

Fair enough..

We can disagree on that point, even though it is a fairly reasonable semantical point....

You may have already noticed that I have a bit of triggering in me when I just get somewhat irritated by some of the prematurity of the attacks (and denigrations) on the S2F model, and perhaps PlanB brought some of these kinds of attacks on the model upon himself when he has been making claims (even in much of 2020 when the BTC price was underperforming the model's expectations) that if x price does not occur by y date then S2F is broken and blah blah blah nonsense (then he was making similar kinds of claims in late 2021 that if certain BTC prices are not met by certain dates then the S2F model is broken.. blah blah blah).... .

I'm not one of those to jump on a bandwagon, feel free to go back and check my history.

I have said STF was broken from day 1.

It does not take into account the institutional fuckery going on.

Derivatives and fractional reserve naked shorting are skimming off by my guess 15-20% of the cap across the board (which btw is about how much out of wack stf is on a cursory glance) and if people do not stop supporting the actors that are doing this it will only get worse until bitcoin is manipulated just like gold and that is what the scumbag bankers ultimate goal is in this space.

Paper bitcoin is their goal to our detriment and that was not satoshi's dream.

"BTC is manipulated just like gold". It is a double edged sword. You want some ability to maneuver shift and trade it, but an exchange at 20x leverage or more is hurting it by allowing too much push in the wrong direction at a smaller cost.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NoorulHuda]

New Bill Takes Aim at El Salvador’s 'Careless Gamble' on Bitcoin
https://decrypt.co/97008/new-bill-el-salvador-careless-gamble-bitcoin

[Hueristic]

"BTC is manipulated just like gold". It is a double edged sword. You want some ability to maneuver shift and trade it, but an exchange at 20x leverage or more is hurting it by allowing too much push in the wrong direction at a smaller cost.

It wouldn't be much of an issue if the paper wasn't rolled over but was settled at close.

They like to use the "adding liquidity" lie to hide their schemes.

[Richy_T]

It wouldn't be much of an issue if the paper wasn't rolled over but was settled at close.

What's 'close' in the Bitcoin world?

[philipma1957]

It wouldn't be much of an issue if the paper wasn't rolled over but was settled at close.

What's 'close' in the Bitcoin world?

yeah true never really closes. 



but the 10x 20x 50x 100x leverage  exchanges are fucked up. With a few whales acting together they can move price far too much. And not suffer huge losses.