Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

I would like you guys to think about this.
I posted...I dont know....couple years ago?  ...maybe more, about pricing and how I thought at the time that bitcoin was worth at least as much as a Berk class A.
back then the price was about $380k.....
today class A's are trading at $537k.
Bitcoin is the most valuable asset or store of value on the Planet.
It will pass this valuation imho.
Worrying about $25k or $45k or $65k seems ridiculous if your investment timeline is over 4 years or even better 10 years.
People are going to trade and try to improve their positions....totally fine in my book, but if you keep playing with fire you will get burnt.
Bitcoin is a bright red hot fire atm and I would be extremely careful about not missing the train.

dyor


Just to be clear I am not saying price will rocket up and past this right now...or this year even. But should conditions remain are they are or better yet improve I dont see how it can not reach and exceed that price.
A recalibration in thinkenings might be a good thing.

[1714292787]

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[1714292787]

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[1714292787]

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[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1508451178736197632

[Torque]

Yeah...the world economy is doing sooo fkn well, that Apple is cutting back their new iPhone SE production by 20%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/apple-reduce-production-budget-iphone-se-china.html

Their BUDGET model. By 20%.  

And if they increased BUDGET model production by 20% you'd be screaming how bad the economy is, "people can't afford the more expensive phones anymore".

Dumb consumerism is dumb. Blowing money on disposable crap is not an indication of strong (or weak) economy, it's an indication of stupidity and vanity.

Uh...the fact that Apple even came out with a budget model iPhone is proof positive that "people can't afford the more expensive phones anymore".

And now even the budget models aren't selling, hence cutting production by 20%.

Pretty good indicator of a weak economy if you ask me.

I don't disagree with you on the blowing senseless money == stupidity and vanity part. Dumb consumer is indeed dumb.

[JayJuanGee]

..... the main prediction remains perfectly intact as we remain within the predicted bear channel. Bitcoin will never reach $100k, until it does.

That's right llama-breath (a variation of donkey breath).  Now, you are talking.

[edited out]....

[edited out]

Don't waste your time JayJuanGee. People like him can not be helped!.. Fortune Tellers and Crystal Ball readers like him can not be reasoned with! I have pulled him up on his post, many times without any response, typical of a snake oil salesman! Just brushes it off and moves to the next post!... kinda reminds me of a John Edward!...

Still waiting on clarification of "not sure if many of the people here know that you need to gain 200% up to recover 100% down"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59653072#msg59653072

For sure, ImThour is recognized for his disingenuine nature.. Personally, I believe it is a better practice to call out / point out.. rather than allowing it to run rampant... your milage may vary... Sure, it costs posters, such as you and me, time to respond... seems better to me than leaving such ongoing nonsense posts as unchecked... Of course, I don't respond to every post of that dweeb.. of course, every once in a while I am nice to the dweeb too, just in case there might have actually been some value or genuineness contained within his post... and surely, of course, it is quite unlikely that he actually believes the baloney that he posts, but that does not mean that some innocent noob might not believe that there might be some truth to his ongoing baloney down-wishenings, in the event that he is not called out.

Why so pessimistic on the price? I'm predicting $120K by year end and that's conservative

Because we're not going to see that kind of price until closer to next halving.

It's contagious. ...LFC.. and likely a few other purported longer term BTC bulls expressing similar sentiments regarding our likelihood for flat or down all the way through this calendar year, perhaps most of next calendar year too and into early 2024.. It's almost as BIG as a holy fuck (or is it sheeeeit) that we can be considering that king daddy is somehow constrained by calendar years and 4-year fractals and nonsense timing frameworks like that when the top for this cycle that we are currently in has been manipulated to fuck, and most likely delayed (postponed) rather than cancelled... but hey, think what you like.

You mean that I should be intently listening to the same clowns that were sooo like "Bitcoin is gonna be over $200K by Dec 2021!!!! Because PlanB said so!!! His data is irrefutable!!!" ?

That crowd?

No thanks JJG.

The stock to flow model is a good model, so you should attempt to use your brain, rather than assigning high probabilities to hype-statement surrounding such model.  If you continue to believe that stock to flow model does not provide some valuable framework towards understanding bitcoin price dynamics, then you are likely too caught up your own ass attempting to figure out your own models that are likely detached from reality.

In other words, there is no need to get caught up in personalities when attempting to better understand ideas around current and ongoing bitcoin price dynamics.

I know the kind of fuck ton of real fiat $$$ it would take to get from where we are current at, to > $100k STABLE PRICE. And I can tell you that, we're just not seeing it rn.

You really believe that moving of the BTC price takes a lot of value?  sure, there are shorting and naked short instruments to bet against bitcoin, but those guys/institutions might end up getting their asses wrecked if they do not adequately protect their lil selfies when they are trying to naked short bitcoin to oblivion.. and then the BTC price moves 2x to 5x against them in a short period of time, then what are they going to do with their paper bets?  Just print more?  At some point, they cannot be printing because they are not authorized to go that far... that means they get reckt.. because no one is going to bail them out from that level of dumb... .sure. they might be able to continue to manipulate.. and continue to hold BTC prices down.. I am not going to place too much brain power into believing that they can continue to be successful... You do you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

JUST IN  UST stablecoin foundation buys 2830 MORE #Bitcoin worth $130 MILLION
https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1508403306086948871

Luna has purchased more than 11,700 bitcoin, worth about $520 million, to build a reserve for its stablecoin UST. But what does that mean exactly?
...
Bitcoin Magazine found LFG’s Bitcoin address after rumors online pointed at a $125 million deposit of USDT into Binance. From analyzing Binance’s Bitcoin hot withdrawal wallet, an address was spotted receiving roughly the same amount, in BTC, within a one-hour window. Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon on Wednesday confirmed via email that the address indeed belongs to LFG. As of March 25, LFG has deposited 11,759 BTC to that address over the past few days.
...
“$UST with $10B+ in $BTC reserves will open a new monetary era of the Bitcoin standard,” Kwon tweeted a few days later. “P2P electronic cash that is easier to spend and more attractive to hold #btc.”
...
source:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/what-luna-does-with-500-million-bitcoin
==========

tl;dr. Shorters might experience disturbance in the force in the coming months.

[NoorulHuda]

Bitcoin Macro analysis

Bitcoin is about to close above the EMA Ribbon (W).

The last time this happened after a double bottom + higher high, #Bitcoin went from 8k to 64k.

The next touch of the dotted line is a good indicator for a possible next top for $BTC


https://mobile.twitter.com/el_crypto_prof/status/1508145810499903491

[sirazimuth]

The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

Fake ass staged event for the dumb masses is fake af

[Cosmic Beyonders]

What  Is it is a Trap Driving Doji



My honest thinking is trade is much risky for now we should wait for sometime lets see next move hoping good from market

[danadc]

Hi guys, I've been seeing the Bitcoin market and it looks very good to buy, especially for the undecided:


"Bitcoin price could return to all-time highs if $46K holds — Analysts"

The moment #BTC is able to breach the mid-range resistance...

Is the moment that $BTC will ascend into the upper half of its Macro Re-Accumulation Range#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/cJh2T4eiNP

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 28, 2022

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-could-return-to-all-time-highs-if-46k-holds-analysts

Somehow they are saying that you can have everything that is needed to make an investment that in the short term will generate profits.



Yesterday and Antier was seeing the price of BTC was about to give a move but I did not know it was so spectacular, because of 44 thousand USD A today at 47mil USD excites!

And there is more with respect to the patterns, I am tracking how to know more technical analysis and there are many experts like Willy Woo that says:




At the same time Peter Brandt comes out saying that a pattern similar to the 2019 is being formed when BTC was put on an upward triangle ..


Source: https://zycrypto.com/bitcoin-bulls-eye-61000-as-btc-roars-past-47500-in-classic-textbook-price-pattern/

This for me is enough to have a short-term model that things can go in favor of an upward movement, also that the fear indicator happened to have more rate of greed, this gives us an idea that everything goes very well .. .

[Paashaas]

China has implemented a mega lockdown in Shanghai, a city with 25 million people.

All residents will be tested, a dystopian nightmare.

Shanghai is one of China's most important economic cities, closing factories and their port will only put further pressure on global supply chains and trade.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

At the same time Peter Brandt comes out saying that a pattern similar to the 2019 is being formed when BTC was put on an upward triangle ..

I like this chart. It's similar with the price prediction I was making.            $300K+

[Cosmic Beyonders]

At the same time Peter Brandt comes out saying that a pattern similar to the 2019 is being formed when BTC was put on an upward triangle ..

I like this chart. It's similar with the price prediction I was making.            $300K+

Good but $300k is it possible in 2022, Honestly in this situation its looking that 300k is not possible until the next Halving of BTC.

Market is currently making some dip signals as i Qouted above that Risky movement of market. It is lloking like a trap sir.


$300k i think by the age of 2030 BTC can totally Replace Gold as a Perfect asset , Not dreaming many many analysis are proving the regularion of BTC will make huge pumps in term Every nation will try to grab more Voins

[JimboToronto]

$48084 Stamp.

Is that a new AYH?

[sirazimuth]

The f-bomb tirade was way out of line.  A jackass putting his anger management issues on display.
Albeit, Will is now gonna get that hummerjob he'd been begging for, for the past week....

Fake ass staged event for the dumb masses is fake af

That’s your opinion bro. I don’t think it was staged. That’s my opinion. I guess I must be a member
of the “dumb masses”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

What  Is it is a Trap Driving Doji



My honest thinking is trade is much risky for now we should wait for sometime lets see next move hoping good from market

It seems that vast majority of the regular WO members proclaim not to trade - except for mostly either large swings or just deciding to shave some of or not at various points along the way out of consideration for possible BTC price direction.

So even though the thread name suggests that this thread might be for traders... many of us are not too lovey-dovey trading ideas especially if they proclaim to know something with any meaningful level of confidence.

I don't want to speak for others.. but the above is my sense of most of WO sentiment towards trading and squiggly lines - even though of course, lot's of guys will post squiggly lines, and just say that "this could be something to think about."  Perhaps ToxicMoxic captures the WO sentiment pretty well.. .. .. sometimes it is difficult to capture the specific sentiment - but surely, guys who try to impose too much certainty with their employment of squigglies are likely going to get a decent amount of push back.

By the way.. regarding BTC price direction.. there can surely be a lot of noise, yet sometimes with BTC price, we will end up getting questions whether the break-out to the upside is real, because surely sometimes the upward movement will run out of steam, but other times, there are continued assertions about the BTC price reversing, and then it takes quite a long amount of time to actually reverse.. take the run up from April 1, 2019 to end of June 2019 as an example.... finally it did end, but not until it had gone up 3.5 x in 3 months.

Your last picture includes the term "crypto"... fuck that stupid-ass vague term, and fuck shitcoins.  Sure there could be some relationship, but none of us should be attempting to either forget that bitcoin is the leader and that if bitcoin happens to seem to be following some dumb-ass shitcoin, it is merely because the shitcoin had jumped in the lead.. but merely being in the lead would not mean that the shitcoin is leading.. In other words, there is no real/meaningful evidence still in existence that bitcoin is anything other than the leader in this segment of the market, and if you start to throw out terms about what people (or you) claim "crypto" is doing, then you are likely engaging in muddy thinking and also guilty of reemploying and spreading such muddy thinking.. which likely would justify some kind of good beating until you say you are sorry and that you will never do it again... even though guys do slip up around here from time to time, so many of us are quite forgiving of the screw ups - unless there is a pattern of intentionality.. then that's another story.

**Don't conclude from my above attempt to describe WO culture/practices that I consider myself holier than thou because sometimes I get beat up a wee bit too... usually for different things, but why should I disclose any of my purported weaknesses? to the extent that I would admit to having any...... when in doubt, don't admit anything.  hahahahaha