Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[exponential]

I am sadly guessing we are going to go lower than 400 if any other negative news comes out from china which I think it will.  I kind of want to sell now and buy back more coins lower but seeing my past luck It would be smartest for me to HODL. 

[darklight]

I think theres a reasonable opportunity for a mini rally in the next few hours, at least until China wakes up and starts spreading more bad news

[infofront]

Choo-chooo! Next stop: $1,000,000

[Cheeseonastick]

https://i.imgur.com/UqbIGXI.jpg

[KeyserSoze]

The current state of Bitcoin community. Imagine the ball is the price except that the pavement would need gaping holes I suppose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvYt0oZrf4o

[Dr. LY]

The problem is that even if holders are afraid, logically they/we CANT sell right now.

The history of volatility on Bitcoin means that selling during panic is just too risky. Hell, in just the last month it went from $400 to $700 in a week, then from $600 to $450 in a week.

What reason is there to sell now? The bad news is out. If you were afraid of China news, you were selling a month ago. You can't sell once the China news is already priced in.

[JayJuanGee]

This is my professiAnal predicition on bitcoin price development:

I've seen a lot of those here.
Not that the outcome is similar, but the refinement of the prediction

This particular depiction is missing the past in order to understand whether the prediction is reasonable and within context

[exprt]

I don't think permabulls are rare here. Just not a lot for us to say during Panic/Capitulation/Despondancy trade cycles. I could post reassuring messages and long term outlooks here all day, that might persuade some people to hold, but really, I'd rather get to the bottom as quick as possible. It's going to happen either way. I expect maximum pain to come before market turns around, and I really haven't felt that yet. I can't really put a $ price on what that would be, but there's no shortage of effort being applied to find out. Perhaps busting below that 400 wall on stamp would do it.

I suspect that moment is approaching, as the "news" is being recycled constantly, and FUDsters are preying on these fears, in tandem with large market dumps that no longer make sense. If you held until now, there's probably more risk in dumping than holding unless dumping for market manipulation purposes. Let the dumps commence, and let the panic spread. It's the best cure for a BTC hangover.

You'll never get my bitcoins.

I'm with you on this.

This crash will lead to the creation of big, big BTC whales.
I know a lot here are betting on selling now and buying low... which leads me to believe that once the dust settles, we will see a major bull run with the price controlled by big players.

I woud not be suprised if the trend change directory afer news to uptrend . China people for this period of time have last chance to buy in mainland,  up to now they bought for reasons, one of the them was that it gives profit in long term. Why they have to change they mind now.

[seleme]

Lack of news from Huobi and BTCChina is reckless.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Lack of news from Huobi and BTCChina is reckless.

It's not reckless, it's business. They are just dumping their personal coins before they announce something that makes the price drop more.
Why do you need their announcement to realize the situation?
Like the MtGox folks, who believed that everything was ok as long as Karpeles didn't say that it's all gone

[adamstgBit]

Lack of news from Huobi and BTCChina is reckless.

i know wtf are they waiting for

Lack of news from Huobi and BTCChina is reckless.

It's not reckless, it's business. They are just dumping their personal coins before they announce something that makes the price drop more.
...

oh ic

[fonzie]

The most frightening thing about the situation is that bitcoin unlearnt how to bounce properly.

[podyx]

The most frightening thing about the situation is that bitcoin unlearnt how to bounce properly.

If we aren't bouncing it means we soon should be trending up

[darklight]

Exchanges make their money on volatility. Its no surprise that they would spread their announcements to encourage as much trading as possible

[JayJuanGee]

Who knows what the price was before China's involvement? If you do then you know the low for now.

The price will be higher than the price before china's involvement... for a few reasons including at least these two... 1) other infrastructure has developed and 2) china will find a way to stay involved even if there were some restrictions on them

3) a lot of money has gone down the toilet with MtGox
4) there are now more coins available than before
5) due to Gox´s fraudulent actions(price manipulation) we will never know what the real price would have been in the last months
?

I fixed the above additions b/c they are inconsistent with the initial post and make little sense within the context of the initial post

[inca]

Right boys I have just bought more bitcoin. Expect the price to plunge.

 

[JayJuanGee]

I am sadly guessing we are going to go lower than 400 if any other negative news comes out from china which I think it will.  I kind of want to sell now and buy back more coins lower but seeing my past luck It would be smartest for me to HODL. 

I tend to have this problem, too.

[MrBlacky]

I woud not be suprised if the trend change directory afer news to uptrend . China people for this period of time have last chance to buy in mainland,  up to now they bought for reasons, one of the them was that it gives profit in long term. Why they have to change they mind now.

I was actually thinking the same right after the first rumors regarding the possibility of shutting down the bank accounts of BTC exchanges.

The shutting down of capital flow to BTC is understandable for the Chinese government.
Because...
China is maintaining a quasi-fixed exchange rate with the USD. But with people being able to freely exchange YUAN to BTC and than BTC to USD, basically makes the Chinese yuan a convertible currency. Which is exactly what the Chinese government doesn't want.

BTC was a gateway for capital flow from China, especially for rich Chinese who wanted to get their money out of the country.
This did push the price of BTC higher than usual, but the effect is not that great, because BTC was just a medium of transfer, not an end result.
Eventually that BTC got sold, in US, EU, Australia for fiat.

So, for most of these Chinese who want to get their money out of the country, these days may be the last in which they may be able to easily do this.

I have full confidence that eventually the Chinese will find some other way to buy BTC, after all, unlike fiat which can be controlled at boarders, BTC cannot.
So it will still remain the best and easiest way to get capital out of China.

In a recent speach by a deputy-direct of PBC, he stated very clearly that the PBC views bitcoin as a currency, not a commodity. It is very likely that the PBC will try to regulate it, but definitely not ban it.

[seleme]

Lack of news from Huobi and BTCChina is reckless.

It's not reckless, it's business. They are just dumping their personal coins before they announce something that makes the price drop more.
Why do you need their announcement to realize the situation?
Like the MtGox folks, who believed that everything was ok as long as Karpeles didn't say that it's all gone

I'm pretty sure they dumped their coins ages ago.