Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.

1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.

If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.

#3 spotted in the wild!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=554625.0;topicseen

They first ones are calm and constructive. It takes some time before we start to get those "WE COULD OF HAD HEAVEN, BUT ALL OF YOU WHO SOLD JUST RUINED IT ALL!!1 ARE YOU NOW ALL HAPPY THAT YOU ARE KISSING BANKSTER ASSES HA-HA!!!1!! IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!".
If we'll start to get those, then we are closer to the real bottom.

[chessnut]

a nice way to escape this volatility would be to short LTCBTC

[nakaone]

You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.

1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.

If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.

#3 spotted in the wild!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=554625.0;topicseen

 

btw why don't you expect a fast rebound? - if I observe this place properly all guys are playing "who gets the most bitcoins" - and they are wondering where the bottom is - probably not for selling at the bottom....

[JayJuanGee]

I'm clad to see that you see investing into alts as weird.

Also, I'm not accusing anyone of manipulation. All I'm saying that these constant errors of calling false bottoms and trend reversals come either out of stupidity or we are dealing with deliberate acts of misdirection.

You make little to no sense, and likely your post is NOT even worth this response.... b/c you tend to be inclined towards the twisting of words and perverting of reality which gives me the sense that you are NOT genuinely attempting to contribute to a meaningful communication regarding bitcoin speculation, but instead to divert with name calling and pie in the sky detractions from this thread - which is BTC speculation, btw, - NOT getting into some random discussion about some random alt..  There are likely plenty of threads that you can explore regarding the various alts... Good luck with your alt coin explorations.

[chessnut]

btw why don't you expect a fast rebound? - if I observe this place properly all guys are playing "who gets the most bitcoins" - and they are wondering where the button is - probably not for selling at the buttom....

we cant be certain because we dont know where the indsiders are buying their bitcoins. these exchanges are not the ideal place for institutional money.

[chilin_dude]

What was the actual china news that came out today to drop the price please? Scan read last 10 pages and couldnt see it, nor on reddit front btc page. Thanks.

[seleme]

huh, 400$ with just 6000 coins wall now.

[Ivanhoe]

I don't think permabulls are rare here. Just not a lot for us to say during Panic/Capitulation/Despondancy trade cycles. I could post reassuring messages and long term outlooks here all day, that might persuade some people to hold, but really, I'd rather get to the bottom as quick as possible. It's going to happen either way. I expect maximum pain to come before market turns around, and I really haven't felt that yet. I can't really put a $ price on what that would be, but there's no shortage of effort being applied to find out. Perhaps busting below that 400 wall on stamp would do it.

I suspect that moment is approaching, as the "news" is being recycled constantly, and FUDsters are preying on these fears, in tandem with large market dumps that no longer make sense. If you held until now, there's probably more risk in dumping than holding unless dumping for market manipulation purposes. Let the dumps commence, and let the panic spread. It's the best cure for a BTC hangover.

Hear hear

I must have missed Chalk's initial post but: +1

+1, it's just that childs like fonzie and pumpkin spam the board everytime bitcoin goes down a few %. They probably don't have a girl or friends to spend their time with.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I'm clad to see that you see investing into alts as weird.

Also, I'm not accusing anyone of manipulation. All I'm saying that these constant errors of calling false bottoms and trend reversals come either out of stupidity or we are dealing with deliberate acts of misdirection.

You make little to no sense, and likely your post is NOT even worth this response.... b/c you tend to be inclined towards the twisting of words and perverting of reality which gives me the sense that you are NOT genuinely attempting to contribute to a meaningful communication regarding bitcoin speculation, but instead to divert with name calling and pie in the sky detractions from this thread - which is BTC speculation, btw, - NOT getting into some random discussion about some random alt..  There are likely plenty of threads that you can explore regarding the various alts... Good luck with your alt coin explorations.

ok

[chessnut]

it doesnt have much choice. we need to get a move on and break this trend line or spike up.

this area of support cannot be tolerated for long.

[JayJuanGee]

Hello, good to see your in it for the right reasons

Its for everyone and that includes assholes, the systems strong enough to face off any realistic attack but its still vulnerable to the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer problem. That's where the features and alts are interesting, one possible function of Bitcoin is contracts for the transfer of real world assets which sidesteps its value altogether and if bitcoin as a currency becomes too centralised in the hands of a small number of people its credibility suffers and therefore so does its value and that value will be transferred to whatever alts gain trust. Anyway, off topic and there's a lot of different views on it. Long live Bitcoin indeed

Personally, at the moment, I see this as an over-played problem of the poor getting poorer... b/c anyone can generate some savings into BTC.. and if they can hold onto their savings.. then there is decent potential for BTC holding the value... at this moment, we cannot be sure about BTC's value in 20 years... for example putting $5000 into a kids college fund... and then waiting to see what the value is in 20 years.

[solex]

Ye thats probably the case, everyone still waiting for that "omfg what the fuck i cant believe its real"-bottom.

I am not sure it will appear this time tho, i think its about 70% possibility it will, but there is a chance it will be very slow and overall kinda "meh"

What is different about the recent peak is that, unlike 2011 and April 2013, there was not an exhaustion spike, but a gentle rolling over for the trend down. So yes, the same might happen in reverse at the low.

[aminorex]

What was the actual china news that came out today to drop the price please? Scan read last 10 pages and couldnt see it, nor on reddit front btc page. Thanks.

JorgeStolfi is keeping track of it and posting info without bias, worth checking his posts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=183158;sa=showPosts

Except you have to check all the factual claims.  Lots of erroneous stuff there.
But he does us all a service by teaching us a lesson in fact checking.
Lesson...delivered!

[seleme]

huh, 400$ with just 6000 coins wall now.

Still 10k... bitcoinwisdom showing wrong

looks so

[soullyG]

I just found translated versions of all the exchange announcements on Reddit - interesting that some are still taking CNY deposits through bank accounts:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/220qob/fxbtc_small_chinese_exchange_shuts_down_cny/

[smoothie]

it doesnt have much choice. we need to get a move on and break this trend line or spike up.

this area of support cannot be tolerated for long.

Why?

Markets can remain irrational.

Let us break the trend line so the weak can sell and we can move on up.

The sooner the better.

[windjc]

I just found translated versions of all the exchange announcements on Reddit - interesting that some are still taking CNY deposits through bank accounts:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/220qob/fxbtc_small_chinese_exchange_shuts_down_cny/

I think it depends on who their bank is. I think they are stalling as long as they can to give themselves more time to make decisions about how and where to operate their businesses going forward. For instance, OkCoin is moving offshore.

[fonzie]

2600 Huobi

[seleme]

it doesnt have much choice. we need to get a move on and break this trend line or spike up.

this area of support cannot be tolerated for long.

Why?

Markets can remain irrational.

Let us break the trend line so the weak can sell and we can move on up.

The sooner the better.

absolutely agree

[hdbuck]

I think 180-280$ would be a fair price as intrinsic value whilst considering the actual state of Bitcoin's economy. all above would be pure speculation of near term progress - but speculating for progress is a winning strategy anyway