Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Adrian-x]

This is the first bubble I've observed up close and personal. I'm finding it a teensy bit eerie how closely it's following the script others have laid out...

What's particularly interesting is that many bubbles pop and go to zero. Bitcoin has survived several boom/bust cycles, never going to zero. Indeed each bubble high is higher than the previous, and each bubble low is higher than the previous. It appears, and the hope is, there may be a few more of these cycles before it enters a more solid state on price.

This time is unprecedented bad news though.

Confirmed

[romang]

5 days In A row I bought bitcoin and 5 days the price was lower lol

[seleme]

Guys, considering my luck with sleep time last 2 days, you better buy some BTC cause I'm sleeping in fiat this time 

[billyjoeallen]

We need a really big whale or a whole a pod of medium whales. We can't bootstrap a turnaround taking each other's money. Even a Cyprus event would need a catalyst.

It's an axiom that unless something changes, the situation won't change. If $400 support isn't tested on higher volume, there will likely be no trend reversal for months. We'll go sideways. If $400 doesn't hold, we'll plummet until hidden support is found somewhere in the depths. This is gut check time.

[KeyserSoze]

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/24409233-piperjaff/2807053-we-are-on-the-verge-of-bitcoin-mass-adoption
This link has lines and shit that you guys seem to think is important.

[chessnut]

seems like we will be bouncing from here for another day at least.

[Davyd05]

I just want okcoin and huobi to have a deposit halt so we can see what a true bottom is.. I want more coins to hodl

[romang]

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/24409233-piperjaff/2807053-we-are-on-the-verge-of-bitcoin-mass-adoption
This link has lines and shit that you guys seem to think is important.

I love your profile picture lol

[theonewhowaskazu]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

[JorgeStolfi]

This whole matter remains extremely confusing to me.  I thought the December 2013 disclosure of the news was that banks could NOT deal directly with exchanges concerning bitcoin but 3rd parties could.   And, this was supposedly effective February 1.   However, the later clarifications is to take away the 3rd party options to put fiat into exchanges through 3rd parties ... so that makes it unclear about the chinese options to get fiat into the btc exchanges...   The matter still has NOT been clarified exactly b/c BTCChina and Huobi have NOT announced that they are affected.

Am I missing something?

As far as I read out from coindesk article, deposits and withraws via bank accounts will still be possible... Also Lee wrote that down if I'm correct.

My understanding is
* The December decree prohibited
** merchant and services from accepting bitcoin or quoting prices in bitcoin
** internet stores from selling bitcoins
** banks from handling bitcoins in any way
** 3rd party processors from feeding bitcoin exchanges directly

After some hesitation, the exchanges found that they could still use bank accounts for deposits and withdrawals, and apparently found a way to use 3rd party processors indiretly for deposits (perhaps the client uses tha 3rd party processor to charge some sort of debit card that he then uses to deposit at the exchange?).  Even BTC-China had started doing that.

These loopholes enabled the Chinese exchanges to survive and keep growing (but then, presumably, mostly for speculation) and the price to recover promptly from the crash bottom level (380$ momentarily on Bitstamp) to 800$.

The new PBoC note was apparently written around March 18, and sent to the banks and 3rd party processors (not to the exchanges) sometime around March 31.  Its exact text is not known yet, but the Caixin leak of last week seems to be correct: the note closes both loopholes, by prohibiting the use of bank accounts and 3rd party processors for client deposits and withdawals.  According to the article, all such activities should be blocked by April 15.

Some banks and 3rd party processors have called some of the exchanges, telling them that deposits through those channels must stop "immediately" and withdrawals will eventually be stopped too. 

Several exchanges still have not reported such calls, and some have reported the blocking of one kind of deposit channel, but not of the other.  However I see no reason to believe that some exchanges would be treated differently from the others.  In fact, the Caixin article claimed that the note listed explicitly all the main exchanges including Huobi and BTC-China.

It was pointed out by "a source close to the PBoC" that blocking the bank accounts is more complicated than stopping the 3rd party services, hence it is understandable that the banks are taking longer to act.

[seleme]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Meh, trust in exchanges means f'all. If few whales start a bubble you'll see people in line begging to send their money to exchanges.

Good old greed beats any trust problems.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Meh, trust in exchanges means f'all. If few whales start a bubble you'll see people in line begging to send their money to exchanges.

Good old greed beats any trust problems.

Not really. At least, not in my experience. Even if bitcoin is bubbling, if people don't trust  the exchanges, they just won't invest, primarily because they don't seem to understand that you can be independent of credit risk by withdrawing your coins... :\

[slapper]

Dr. Stolfi

Are you saying there is yet another set of bans that is yet to be imposed in China? This time no one will believe it, it has happened so many times!

[BitChick]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Cheer up people.  Take a look at this chart from the "other TA" thread and realize that we are in such a great position right now.  The trendline is almost freakishly identical to the trend from 2010 -2011 to the trend we are on now from 2013 till now.  If it stays on the same path we are looking at $10,000 or even more easily on the next rise in price.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg6032075#msg6032075

[Davyd05]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Cheer up people.  Take a look at this chart from the "other TA" thread and realize that we are in such a great position right now.  The trendline is almost freakishly identical to the trend from 2010 -2011 to the trend we are on now from 2013 till now.  If it stays on the same path we are looking at $10,000 or even more easily on the next rise in price.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg6032075#msg6032075

I am not worried just displeased that Pboc is so shadowy with the rulings.. but fiat has it slaves.

[seleme]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Meh, trust in exchanges means f'all. If few whales start a bubble you'll see people in line begging to send their money to exchanges.

Good old greed beats any trust problems.

Not really. At least, not in my experience. Even if bitcoin is bubbling, if people don't trust  the exchanges, they just won't invest, primarily because they don't seem to understand that you can be independent of credit risk by withdrawing your coins... :\

yeah, that's why we have zillion of people from November here

There is enough people on the planet who will feel the need to send money there as soon as their greed indicator goes to green  

I don't doubt that a second, it's only a point when circumstances will be such for that to happen or to make it simple - when next bubble will start.

[BitChick]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Meh, trust in exchanges means f'all. If few whales start a bubble you'll see people in line begging to send their money to exchanges.

Good old greed beats any trust problems.

Not really. At least, not in my experience. Even if bitcoin is bubbling, if people don't trust  the exchanges, they just won't invest, primarily because they don't seem to understand that you can be independent of credit risk by withdrawing your coins... :\

yeah, that's why we have zillion of people from November here

There is enough people on the planet who will feel the need to send money there as soon as their greed indicator goes to green 

I don't doubt that a second, it's only a point when circumstances will be cuh for that to happen or to make it simple - when next bubble will start.

What is more impressive then these dips in price?  How crazy fast the price can rise when Bitcoin starts taking off!  I think people panic even more when the price is rising in Bitcoin.  Just wait till we take off next time.  This ride will get crazy! 

[billyjoeallen]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Meh, trust in exchanges means f'all. If few whales start a bubble you'll see people in line begging to send their money to exchanges.

Good old greed beats any trust problems.

Who's going to be the whale? The macroeconomic picture is that the Federal Reserve is tapering the quantitative easing even as real employment (labor force participation) weakens. There's likely to be a mad scramble for cash and whales will have their hands full with their other investments.

When the tide goes out, you discover who's been swimming naked. The only whale I know with massive cash on hand is Warren Buffet and he's not coming to save us.

[BitChick]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Cheer up people.  Take a look at this chart from the "other TA" thread and realize that we are in such a great position right now.  The trendline is almost freakishly identical to the trend from 2010 -2011 to the trend we are on now from 2013 till now.  If it stays on the same path we are looking at $10,000 or even more easily on the next rise in price.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg6032075#msg6032075

I am not worried just displeased that Pboc is so shadowy with the rulings.. but fiat has it slaves.

April 15th will come and go. The price might not move much before then, or up a little perhaps, but when everyone realizes that Bitcoin isn't going to "zero" things will get interesting once again.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation