Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jonoiv]

Short-term looks bullish to me.

bid

It's not bullish or bearish. It's consolidation. You're seeing the oscillations get smaller and smaller as the amplitude of the swings decrease as the bots skim the market maker spread. It's gonna flatline before or unless some new development upsets the equilibrium.  

Denial.  Its a bull penant. Igorr showed us.

I have no idea which way it will go.

But it can't be a bull pendent, as a bull pendent can only be formed at the end of a strong up trend.  

You must be thinking of a bear flag.  

2(a)

You're not getting it are you....  2(a)   is impossible.  Because 2(a) the price starts from an uptrend.


The price can go up.  But it's not any kind of flag / pendent.  

There is not trading pattern for what you are suggesting.  

Look at 2(a)  and look at he start of the line.  Where the price came from .


The only thing that distinguishes 2(a)  form 2(b)   is where the price came from.   Other wise how could a trader use it to predict the price?   because the 2 flags are the same.  (apart from the the start)

IE you must ether the triangle from below not from above.

Do you understand now?

[aminorex]

Have we witnessed billyjoeallen go full retard?? (based on his last post)

i have confidence in bja's member size complex.  i think this is only about ⅜ of his full spark adjustment range.

[NewLiberty]

Clearly 1a starting from nov.

[aminorex]

You're not getting it are you....  2(a)   is impossible.  Because 2(a) the price starts from an uptrend.


The price can go up.  But it's not any kind of flag / pendent.  

There is not trading pattern for what you are suggesting.  

Look at 2(a)  and look at he start of the line.  Where the price came from .


The only thing that distinguishes 2(a)  form 2(b)   is where the price came from.   Other wise how could a trader use it to predict the price?   because the 2 flags are the same.  (apart from the the start)

IE you must ether the triangle from below not from above.

Do you understand now?

Your patronizing tone isn't helping you.

It did.  The staff is just short.

[jonoiv]

Clearly 1a starting from nov.

true.

but the current situation? 

[igorr]

You're not getting it are you....  2(a)   is impossible.  Because 2(a) the price starts from an uptrend.


The price can go up.  But it's not any kind of flag / pendent.  

There is not trading pattern for what you are suggesting.  

Look at 2(a)  and look at he start of the line.  Where the price came from .


The only thing that distinguishes 2(a)  form 2(b)   is where the price came from.   Other wise how could a trader use it to predict the price?   because the 2 flags are the same.  (apart from the the start)

IE you must ether the triangle from below not from above.

Do you understand now?

Your patronizing tone isn't helping you.

It did.  The staff is just short.

Short makes a profit.

[jonoiv]

You're not getting it are you....  2(a)   is impossible.  Because 2(a) the price starts from an uptrend.


The price can go up.  But it's not any kind of flag / pendent.  

There is not trading pattern for what you are suggesting.  

Look at 2(a)  and look at he start of the line.  Where the price came from .


The only thing that distinguishes 2(a)  form 2(b)   is where the price came from.   Other wise how could a trader use it to predict the price?   because the 2 flags are the same.  (apart from the the start)

IE you must ether the triangle from below not from above.

Do you understand now?

Your patronizing tone isn't helping you.

It did.  The staff is just short.

Flag / pendent  patterns are continuation patterns...  not trend reversal patterns.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqCFhhou3SM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0-SJNnnHFM

[billyjoeallen]

Have we witnessed billyjoeallen go full retard?? (based on his last post)

i have confidence in bja's member size complex.  i think this is only about ⅜ of his full spark adjustment range.

It's a net worth reduction of hundreds of thousands of dollars complex.

[windjc]

Well, 3 green daily candles now, but all on descending volume. This is either going to have another leg up on higher volume or we are going down again soon.  This won't continue more than another day or so, in my opinion.

[Erdogan]

What is demand?

Demand is when you want some bitcoin and are ready to pay for it by putting up an order. You may have lots of fiat, but the order is for an amount. So demand from one user is the pair volume and price. All users' demands aggretated form the order book.

The actual demand is when you place an order near the equilibrium. Low orders is more like a wish, and it can be changed. If you place a low order, and the last price creeps slowly downwards, you might change your mind and cancel the order.

Supply is the compliment - a fraction of bitcoin that you want to sell for a certain price near the equilibrium.

What does them sum of the order book mean?

The sum of orders and the sum of offers mean nothing, really. Since demand and supply are pairs of volume and price, what is relevant is the curve of the order book, as displayed by bitcoinwisdom for example. Large amounts far away from the equilibrium does not mean much, but the form of the curve near the last price is of some importance.

What does the sales volume mean?

When all the users valuations, and therefore the supply and demand vectors they put to the market, are static, there are no sales. Only when some valuation changes, there may be an order, and when the change of the valuation (expressed as an offer) crosses the equilibrium, there is a sale. Imagine you have a statice order book, and suddenly all the actors at the same time change their valuations and offers up say 15%. There is still no volume, because everybody changed in the same direction at the same time. Only when some of the actors change, there will be trades. Say half of the actors value bitcoin 15 % down, the rest stay put. Then some of the sale orders close to the equilibrium will cross over some of the static buy offers, and we have some volume.

So volume does not mean much for the price, only the valuations do. But, typical with bitcoin in the adoption phase, is that some actors, going from an uninformed or uninterested or negative state, changes to a positive state with valuation over the equilibrium. Therefore, new users means volume. But this is not consistent, because we also have high volume with dumps.

Do we need fiat going into bitcoin?

No fiat goes into bitcoin. As a result of change of valuation on part of some of the actors, the bitcoin goes from the seller to the buyer (of bitcoin), and the fiat goes from buyer to seller (or from seller of fiat to buyer of fiat). Moving fiat to the exchange is a precursor to buying, and moving fiat from the exchanges is a by-product of selling. Anyway the fiat will stay at the exchange for a certain amount of time.

What about the fiat parked on the exchanges?

Basically, the amount of fiat means that people are about to buy sometime in the near future, but they could also be lazy. Same with bitcoins left on the exchanges. As far as I know, the exchanges do not show how much fiat and coins they have outside the order book.

[podyx]

we gonna need some help for 460 on stamp

[Erdogan]

Based on the above, what happens if all the chinese exclanges close, and they have to recourse to face to face trades? Volume goes down, but it does not mean anything for the price, except the trades will have to be performed on a wider price range, decided by the traders' negotiation ability.

Imagine a buyer saying: I have wanted some coins for some time, I have had difficulty finding them, I have lots of fiat and I die to get some. Price will be quite high.

Imagine a seller saying: I bought too many, my creditors are after me and I have four hungry kids at home. I have to get rid of some coins. The price will be quite low.

[billyjoeallen]

ok I got another sell order @ $457. C'mon, you suckers BUY BUY

[podyx]

billyjoe losing his fucking mind lol

[windjc]

ok I got another sell order @ $457. C'mon, you suckers BUY BUY

Its not beyond a possibility that we will have a mini rally starting tomorrow and/or Monday. Market seems to want to try to break up for a step.

Having said that, it will take some volume, which seems most likely on Sundays and Mondays. However, the bulls have been unwilling to break through any trend lines the last couple of weeks, so if they don't step up, your short at $457 will probably be a good one.

The fact we are edging up over the weekend is a bullish sign to me. But, again, there has to be follow through.

Plus I would be shocked if there wasn't more confirming news out of China this week. Which seems to be all the market is looking for to test lows again.

[FullLife]

Any movement on volume this low really means nothing.

[aminorex]

Based on the above, what happens if all the chinese exclanges close, and they have to recourse to face to face trades? Volume goes down, but it does not mean anything for the price, except the trades will have to be performed on a wider price range, decided by the traders' negotiation ability.

Imagine a buyer saying: I have wanted some coins for some time, I have had difficulty finding them, I have lots of fiat and I die to get some. Price will be quite high.

Imagine a seller saying: I bought too many, my creditors are after me and I have four hungry kids at home. I have to get rid of some coins. The price will be quite low.

Liquidity commands a premium. That premium was destroyed in China.  When the premium went away btc reverted to its  fundamental value -- well, it overshot slightly to the down side.  The question now is when will the overshoot end.

[tarmi]

billyjoe is not crazy really. just annoying.

he lost that little credibility that he had and now acts like a complete btctalk clown.

on ignore from now on.

I sense a rally tomorrow. at least I hope. I could short some coins at 480. I dont have enough fiat on exchanges, and I wont certainly wire anything.

[windjc]

Any movement on volume this low really means nothing.

Well it does tell you that there is small bullish sentiment at these levels.  People are dipping their toes in the water. Of course it could all be reversed within minutes, as its shark infested waters for sure.

[billyjoeallen]

ok I got another sell order @ $457. C'mon, you suckers BUY BUY

Its not beyond a possibility that we will have a mini rally starting tomorrow and/or Monday. Market seems to want to try to break up for a step.

Having said that, it will take some volume, which seems most likely on Sundays and Mondays. However, the bulls have been unwilling to break through any trend lines the last couple of weeks, so if they don't step up, your short at $457 will probably be a good one.

The fact we are edging up over the weekend is a bullish sign to me. But, again, there has to be follow through.

Plus I would be shocked if there wasn't more confirming news out of China this week. Which seems to be all the market is looking for to test lows again.

Who's gonna buy on Sunday @ $460 what they couldn't have bought on Friday @ $447? Is there some way to transfer fiat to exchanges on weekends that I don't know about?
I hope you're right.