Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[solex]

Based upon the monthly trend the market is oversold, and even a rally to $540 would be within the overall downtrend.

[billyjoeallen]

Based on the above, what happens if all the chinese exclanges close, and they have to recourse to face to face trades? Volume goes down, but it does not mean anything for the price, except the trades will have to be performed on a wider price range, decided by the traders' negotiation ability.

Imagine a buyer saying: I have wanted some coins for some time, I have had difficulty finding them, I have lots of fiat and I die to get some. Price will be quite high.

Imagine a seller saying: I bought too many, my creditors are after me and I have four hungry kids at home. I have to get rid of some coins. The price will be quite low.

Liquidity commands a premium. That premium was destroyed in China.  When the premium went away btc reverted to its  fundamental value -- well, it overshot slightly to the down side.  The question now is when will the overshoot end.

IS BEING DESTROYED in China. Present tense.

[windjc]

Based upon the monthly trend the market is oversold, and even a rally to $540 would be within the overall downtrend.

True. But buyers had ample time to test the top of the trendline before the latest sell off(s). Are they willing to do anything now?

[windjc]

ok I got another sell order @ $457. C'mon, you suckers BUY BUY

Its not beyond a possibility that we will have a mini rally starting tomorrow and/or Monday. Market seems to want to try to break up for a step.

Having said that, it will take some volume, which seems most likely on Sundays and Mondays. However, the bulls have been unwilling to break through any trend lines the last couple of weeks, so if they don't step up, your short at $457 will probably be a good one.

The fact we are edging up over the weekend is a bullish sign to me. But, again, there has to be follow through.

Plus I would be shocked if there wasn't more confirming news out of China this week. Which seems to be all the market is looking for to test lows again.

Who's gonna buy on Sunday @ $460 what they couldn't have bought on Friday @ $447? Is there some way to transfer fiat to exchanges on weekends that I don't know about?
I hope you're right.

Theoretically, people would buy on Sunday on anticipation of a run up.  It's happened before. I think its about as likely as a dump tomorrow. Or sitting flat.

[billyjoeallen]

another satisfied sucker customer. I got 2 BTC at $559 up for grabs. Anyone? anyone?

[adamstgBit]

another satisfied sucker customer. I got 2 BTC at $559 up for grabs. Anyone? anyone?

do you accept colorful canadian money?

[billyjoeallen]

another satisfied sucker customer. I got 2 BTC at $559 up for grabs. Anyone? anyone?

do you accept colorful canadian money?

B.C. Bud only.

[JayJuanGee]

YES!!! someone finally bought it on bitfinex. Now quick, somebody dump so I can buy in back @ $447.

What about hodling like a BTC pro. And let the dumping behind us.

You had your chance a few times the last weeks.

Yeah, I held like a pro and saw my net worth plummet by two thirds. Whores are pros. They get fucked. So did I. If this little rally continues, you'll see a lot more of my coins in else's pockets and If I don't get the chance to buy them back cheaper, I'm tempted to walk away and spend the cash on coke and "pros".

Ok.  I don't know what people do exactly or how they trade.. however, let's take some of the information that you already provided to us and then speculate a little. 

Let's say for example that you bet wrong b/c you were betting that BTC prices would go to sub $400.  Accordingly, you sold 100 BTC at $430. 

From info you provided, we already know that your average BTC buy in price is less than $40.  Therefore, your total buy in price for 100 BTC is $4,000, but your sell price is $43,000.  You bet wrong, and the train leaves the station, and at some point you say, "shit, i better get on this train or I am going to be left when they get to the rocket liftoff."  Therefore, you buy back in at $500 rather than $400.  You are only able to buy 86 BTC with your $43,000 rather than 107.5 BTC at $400.  You are still ahead by $39,000 with your initial investment, even though you could have been ahead by more. 

In this hypothetical, you lost $4000, but the difference in what you could have gained is 21.5 BTC.  Yet, that is part of the risk in taking chances.  NO?


I know that I am speculating on the numbers, and maybe you bet 500BTC but the same theory applies - just multiply by 5.  There is still a fairly decent chance that prices could reach $429 again before the weekend is up... ... maybe 40% chance?

[seleme]

billyjoe losing his fucking mind lol

Pathetic little moaner. Moaned at 650$ because it's cheap, moans at 450 because it's expensive. He just enjoys making himself to look like idiot 

[billyjoeallen]

YES!!! someone finally bought it on bitfinex. Now quick, somebody dump so I can buy in back @ $447.

What about hodling like a BTC pro. And let the dumping behind us.

You had your chance a few times the last weeks.

Yeah, I held like a pro and saw my net worth plummet by two thirds. Whores are pros. They get fucked. So did I. If this little rally continues, you'll see a lot more of my coins in else's pockets and If I don't get the chance to buy them back cheaper, I'm tempted to walk away and spend the cash on coke and "pros".

Ok.  I don't know what people do exactly or how they trade.. however, let's take some of the information that you already provided to us and then speculate a little. 

Let's say for example that you bet wrong b/c you were betting that BTC prices would go to sub $400.  Accordingly, you sold 100 BTC at $430. 

From info you provided, we already know that your average BTC buy in price is less than $40.  Therefore, your total buy in price for 100 BTC is $4,000, but your sell price is $43,000.  You bet wrong, and the train leaves the station, and at some point you say, "shit, i better get on this train or I am going to be left when they get to the rocket liftoff."  Therefore, you buy back in at $500 rather than $400.  You are only able to buy 86 BTC with your $43,000 rather than 107.5 BTC at $400.  You are still ahead by $39,000 with your initial investment, even though you could have been ahead by more. 

In this hypothetical, you lost $4000, but the difference in what you could have gained is 21.5 BTC.  Yet, that is part of the risk in taking chances.  NO?


I know that I am speculating on the numbers, and maybe you bet 500BTC but the same theory applies - just multiply by 5.  There is still a fairly decent chance that prices could reach $429 again before the weekend is up... ... maybe 40% chance?

That's pretty close, yes. $429 his weekend is more like a 15% chance, but over the next two weeks it's more like a 55% chance.

[JayJuanGee]

Clearly 1a starting from nov.

true.

but the current situation? 

The "current" situation starts from any point before November as easily as it as it starts from any point after December.  It is just arbitrary to select one to the exclusion of the other in order to arrive at a simple conclusion... Yes, we can attempt to predict short term on more current, but both short and long term predictions is also affected by more than just the short-term snapshot.

[billyjoeallen]

billyjoe losing his fucking mind lol

Pathetic little moaner. Moaned at 650$ because it's cheap, moans at 450 because it's expensive. He just enjoys making himself to look like idiot 

I am an idiot. The difference between you and me is that I know it.

[chessnut]

it's sneaking up like nobody noticed.

That trendline formed a lil wedge.

[fonzie]

If anyone wants to watch anything else besides these boring as fuck charts i can truly recommend this movie:

[fonzie]

it's sneaking up like nobody noticed.

That trendline formed a lil wedge.

Did you switch to Bitstamp now that your upwards support line on Huobi has been broken?

[chessnut]

Did you switch to Bitstamp now that your upwards support line on Huobi has been broken?

Funny guy. I am not binary, but this is an important break through.
I was nervous that the wedge was gonna break down, I even stated this in an earlier post, and then everyone said "ooh chessnut's changed his mind again" like tossers.

[podyx]

Bitstamp tryna start it's engine

[Davyd05]

Did you switch to Bitstamp now that your upwards support line on Huobi has been broken?

Funny guy. I am not binary, but this is an important break through.
I was nervous that the wedge was gonna break down, I even stated this in an earlier post, and then everyone said "ooh chessnut's changed his mind again" like tossers.

I went to bed feeling I'd wake up to this price, starting to feeling safer as does the market. Monday could be make or break, as no bad news = continued recovery

[JayJuanGee]

YES!!! someone finally bought it on bitfinex. Now quick, somebody dump so I can buy in back @ $447.

What about hodling like a BTC pro. And let the dumping behind us.

You had your chance a few times the last weeks.

Yeah, I held like a pro and saw my net worth plummet by two thirds. Whores are pros. They get fucked. So did I. If this little rally continues, you'll see a lot more of my coins in else's pockets and If I don't get the chance to buy them back cheaper, I'm tempted to walk away and spend the cash on coke and "pros".

Ok.  I don't know what people do exactly or how they trade.. however, let's take some of the information that you already provided to us and then speculate a little. 

Let's say for example that you bet wrong b/c you were betting that BTC prices would go to sub $400.  Accordingly, you sold 100 BTC at $430. 

From info you provided, we already know that your average BTC buy in price is less than $40.  Therefore, your total buy in price for 100 BTC is $4,000, but your sell price is $43,000.  You bet wrong, and the train leaves the station, and at some point you say, "shit, i better get on this train or I am going to be left when they get to the rocket liftoff."  Therefore, you buy back in at $500 rather than $400.  You are only able to buy 86 BTC with your $43,000 rather than 107.5 BTC at $400.  You are still ahead by $39,000 with your initial investment, even though you could have been ahead by more. 

In this hypothetical, you lost $4000, but the difference in what you could have gained is 21.5 BTC.  Yet, that is part of the risk in taking chances.  NO?


I know that I am speculating on the numbers, and maybe you bet 500BTC but the same theory applies - just multiply by 5.  There is still a fairly decent chance that prices could reach $429 again before the weekend is up... ... maybe 40% chance?

That's pretty close, yes. $429 his weekend is more like a 15% chance, but over the next two weeks it's more like a 55% chance.

Again, we have somewhat opposing presumptions. 

I am thinking that the chances are higher that we would hit $429 in the shorter term, and the more that time passes.. the more likely the train is going to leave the station never to return to these sub $500 prices.... except possibly a flash crash here or there or some other aberrations in downward price manipulation... When we start to get to some of these higher price platform territories... we NOT coming back... except maybe flashing.

[fonzie]

Did you switch to Bitstamp now that your upwards support line on Huobi has been broken?

Funny guy. I am not binary, but this is an important break through.
I was nervous that the wedge was gonna break down, I even stated this in an earlier post, and then everyone said "ooh chessnut's changed his mind again" like tossers.

I´m just teasing you   . Lines don´t say much right now in my opionion. I don´t think anyone (beside inside whales) has a real clue when and in which direction this is going to break out.

Option A: Bull-trap to 480-490 and afterwards breakdown to 2xx$
Option B : Just like A without bull-trap