Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

Edit: make that $1400.

[aminorex]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

Use kelly to size

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

[shmadz]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

What exactly would be sufficient evidence or indication of a clear reversal?

[JorgeStolfi]

You are all aware that this weekend including Monday is a big national holiday in China, right? 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomb_Sweeping_Day
Which means low volume, most banks are closed, no new news about the bank blockade rumor, etc.

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

What exactly would be sufficient evidence or indication of a clear reversal?

If price goes up with increasing rather than decreasing volume, followed by increasing support in the order book. And the 1 day MACD confirms this.

[jonoiv]

It's fucking happening

I'm probably moving in with my last couple of grands on monday

What's happening?  All the way up now? or more bumps for a while?

The reversal

Well it's gonna be a long grind up now for few months(I think)

I fear it's not a reversal.  It's just the next bull push up before the next drop.  unless we have some good news, (i think) it's just the motion of the ocean.  nothing changes.  If it stamp or btc-e break 500, then I'll eat my words.  



Volume decreasing each pump /push.  It's not bullish overall. 

[aminorex]

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market.  I.e. never.  But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

[TERA]

I think it will go down to 435ish (or not) then up to 530 then down to 380. After this, there may or may not be one more bulltrap before the journey to 265.

[BitChick]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Who is going to buy now? Many people are much more likely to buy as the price is rising.  They feel more confident when they see the direction Bitcoin is moving and are willing to purchase at a higher price because of that.  When the price hits "rock bottom" it can be very difficult to buy because the feeling is a bit depressing and there is more fear and worry.  But with rallies come more confidence and a more positive outlook and then the money just starts flowing in.  

[Le Happy Merchant]

Leverage shorting now would not be a bad idea imo.

If you want to get your legs broken, sure.

[pjviitas]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

What exactly would be sufficient evidence or indication of a clear reversal?

When the 1w graph on Bitcoin Wisdom starts pointing upwards

[aminorex]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Everybody who sold at 900, 800, 700, 600 and 500 will buy now if they don't want the price to run away from them. Also if they sold at 300 or 400. They have cash to burn because they have a very helpful attribute: patience - and perhaps foresight planning and self control.

As mr buffet observed the market is an efficient machine for tranferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

[jonoiv]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

What exactly would be sufficient evidence or indication of a clear reversal?

here my thoughts.

If we were to break 500 then it's looking good.  but if you follow the current trend line that will take us to April 15th to reach $500.  Volume on the uptrend will run-out long before this.   in about 18 hours is a rough guess.  

When we go down next time, if the bottom is less then the last time (416 stamp, then the charts may show a reverse shoulder),  3 dips, with the lowest dip in the middle... then you will see a real bullish pump and we may be out of the woods.

We may get some more bad news and China ban bitcoin again.  Or there may be some good news.  

[Erdogan]

Based on the above, what happens if all the chinese exclanges close, and they have to recourse to face to face trades? Volume goes down, but it does not mean anything for the price, except the trades will have to be performed on a wider price range, decided by the traders' negotiation ability.

Imagine a buyer saying: I have wanted some coins for some time, I have had difficulty finding them, I have lots of fiat and I die to get some. Price will be quite high.

Imagine a seller saying: I bought too many, my creditors are after me and I have four hungry kids at home. I have to get rid of some coins. The price will be quite low.

Liquidity commands a premium. That premium was destroyed in China.  When the premium went away btc reverted to its  fundamental value -- well, it overshot slightly to the down side.  The question now is when will the overshoot end.

Yes, because the speculators (wrongly) believed that the volume and the continues operation of the exchanges is essential to the price. Slowly we will again approach reality, which is that the value is based in the minds of the market actors.

[fotosonics]

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

billyjoe, take a pause from the bitcoin market and watch The counselor

see what happens when greed takes over

[billyjoeallen]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Everybody who sold at 900, 800, 700, 600 and 500 will buy now if they don't want the price to run away from them. Also if they sold at 300 or 400. They have cash to burn because they have a very helpful attribute: patience - and perhaps foresight planning and self control.

As mr buffet observed the market is an efficient machine for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

I agree with WB.  I bought @ $10 in 2011 and was very patient. Anyone buying higher will transfer their wealth to me. If I run out of coins in my trading account, I'll Xfer some from cold storage and do it again. We have to shake out the wankers or the real uptrend won't come. Those wankers will be shaken out, even if I turn out to be one of them, even if you are. Honey Badger don't care.

[TERA]

[jonoiv]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 06

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.


Plot legend


This last data point was not too bad (S = 0.0038, W = 0.745), and almost aligned with the previous two points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to use again a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last three Slumber points - namely, A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2667.94, B = 68.82.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.20, 6.13, 5.96 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 02:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

This was an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2796 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2808 CNY
Error: 12 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 8 USD
 
NOTE: See the previous note.

So put simply,  Chinese bed time = coin dump because they only want to hold fiat overnight?