Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fotosonics]

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

billyjoe, take a pause from the bitcoin market and watch The counselor

see what happens when greed takes over

[billyjoeallen]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Everybody who sold at 900, 800, 700, 600 and 500 will buy now if they don't want the price to run away from them. Also if they sold at 300 or 400. They have cash to burn because they have a very helpful attribute: patience - and perhaps foresight planning and self control.

As mr buffet observed the market is an efficient machine for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

I agree with WB.  I bought @ $10 in 2011 and was very patient. Anyone buying higher will transfer their wealth to me. If I run out of coins in my trading account, I'll Xfer some from cold storage and do it again. We have to shake out the wankers or the real uptrend won't come. Those wankers will be shaken out, even if I turn out to be one of them, even if you are. Honey Badger don't care.

[TERA]

[jonoiv]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 06

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.


Plot legend


This last data point was not too bad (S = 0.0038, W = 0.745), and almost aligned with the previous two points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to use again a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last three Slumber points - namely, A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2667.94, B = 68.82.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.20, 6.13, 5.96 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 02:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

This was an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2796 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2808 CNY
Error: 12 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 8 USD
 
NOTE: See the previous note.

So put simply,  Chinese bed time = coin dump because they only want to hold fiat overnight?

[Erdogan]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

[Erdogan]

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market.  I.e. never.  But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.

[billyjoeallen]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Who is going to buy now? Many people are much more likely to buy as the price is rising.  They feel more confident when they see the direction Bitcoin is moving and are willing to purchase at a higher price because of that.  When the price hits "rock bottom" it can be very difficult to buy because the feeling is a bit depressing and there is more fear and worry.  But with rallies come more confidence and a more positive outlook and then the money just starts flowing in.  

Then I'll take their money because it's likely not going straight up from here. No Wall Street whale is going to dump tens of millions into a Hong Kong or Slovenian exchange. If they're buying now, they're buying from miners who haven't paid bills in four months. I myself am getting pretty damn sick of living on credit cards. I have good credit but it's not infinite. I don't think a bounce to $540 after a plunge from $1100 is going to instill much confidence in the face of Gox, China, Shrem, etc.

Look at what happened to the $710 whale. We all thought we were out of the woods. I did too. Those who don't learn from mistakes are doomed to repeat them.

Please don't shoot the messenger. I wish I had a better outlook. I'm sorry if this analysis is discomforting. OTOH, if you find it amusing, then by all means BUY BUY BUY! I like to get well paid for entertaining people.

[TERA]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Everybody who sold at 900, 800, 700, 600 and 500 will buy now if they don't want the price to run away from them. Also if they sold at 300 or 400. They have cash to burn because they have a very helpful attribute: patience - and perhaps foresight planning and self control.

As mr buffet observed the market is an efficient machine for tranferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

IMHO, most of the money from btc sales during this bear market has been withdrawn (or lost) and is not sitting on exchanges waiting to rebuy. This is because:
1. The drop has been fueled by a lack of trust in exchanges.
2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend. Some reasons (not inclusive) : [government bans, regulations, tax laws]
3. Some exchanges have shut down and taken their customers' money with them, so the money is not available to reinvest.
4. The remaining exchanges have had functioning withdrawal methods (unlike gox in the summer).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

IMHO, most of the money from btc sales during this bear market has been withdrawn (or lost) and is not sitting on exchanges waiting to rebuy. This is because:
1. The drop has been fueled by a lack of trust in exchanges.
2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend.
3. Some exchanges have shut down and taken their customers' money with them, so the money is not available to reinvest.
4. The remaining exchanges have had functioning withdrawal methods (unlike gox in the summer).

1)trust in an exchange would have equal affect on fiat and bitcoin.

"2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend." - thats just the way I like it.

3) - the bitcoins are gone too! and we know at least 200k are not going to hit the market for a long time = 200k shortage.

4) this is a constant.

[Erdogan]

Looking at the trades, which maybe is a perverse hobby of mine, I am regularly surprised at how much fiat people have ready on the exchanges for buying in the weekends. Why wait? Why not just buy as soon as the fiat arrives. At least, why not put up an order somewhere below the latest price to take advantage of a dump?

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

This doesn't make any sense. One should make decisions based on the current market, not "I am going to chase losses with leverage if I am wrong".

I made $400 today locked in. That's not "if the market holds". That's USD. and if the market keeps going up, I'll lock in more. I hope it does. I will have tens of thousands of dollars to jump back on the gravy train if a clear reversal materializes.

What exactly would be sufficient evidence or indication of a clear reversal?

here my thoughts.

If we were to break 500 then it's looking good.  but if you follow the current trend line that will take us to April 15th to reach $500.  Volume on the uptrend will run-out long before this.   in about 18 hours is a rough guess.  

When we go down next time, if the bottom is less then the last time (416 stamp, then the charts may show a reverse shoulder),  3 dips, with the lowest dip in the middle... then you will see a real bullish pump and we may be out of the woods.

We may get some more bad news and China ban bitcoin again.  Or there may be some good news.  

I have a difficult time envisioning a BTC dip to less than $425 on stamp in the next 18 hours, absent some additional negative news from China or wherever, and since people are saying that it is a holiday in China on Monday, we are less likely to get negative news or even clarification of any matters from China, until Tuesday.   

The reason that I doubt lower BTC price dips is b/c it seems that the China FUD (or whatever we are calling it these days) seems to have been milked to its utmost. 

To a large extent, there does NOT seem to be any major / material restrictions from fiat getting into exchanges from what was already speculated in early December. Surely it seems that some of the fiat funding avenues may have dried up, but the Chinese seem to have various alternative means to get fiat in and out of exchanges - at least the chinese people who are mostly into bitcoin... and let's face it... bitcoin in china is not trickling down to the masses of regular chinese people - instead, it is .01%-ish of the chinese population who are speculating with bitcoin in china - and these guys/gals are NOT likely going to be easily altered by a few restrictions, here and there... except to potentially cause some FUD, to the extent that any additional FUD can be milked out of these kinds of loosey goosey facts.

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

[Richy_T]

Please don't shoot the messenger. I wish I had a better outlook. I'm sorry if this analysis is discomforting. OTOH, if you find it amusing, then by all means BUY BUY BUY! I like to get well paid for entertaining people.

Your analysis is colored (heavily) by your need to sell your bitcoins to cover your expenses. Too much emotion, not enough rationality.

Me?

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

I have the ability to double 4X before margin shorting. Margin shorting is extremely risky and I'll only do it if the rally continues in a parabolic way. A slow steady rise on building volume will make me rethink market conditions.

[jonoiv]

The real question is who's gonna buy today when they could have bought yesterday @ $477 or when I bought at $10.  Who's gonna hold when they can lock in a $18 profit in a down market?

Sell this bounce and help me defend the $400 wall or run the risk of this bounce being like the last 20 or so.

Everybody who sold at 900, 800, 700, 600 and 500 will buy now if they don't want the price to run away from them. Also if they sold at 300 or 400. They have cash to burn because they have a very helpful attribute: patience - and perhaps foresight planning and self control.

As mr buffet observed the market is an efficient machine for tranferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

IMHO, most of the money from btc sales during this bear market has been withdrawn (or lost) and is not sitting on exchanges waiting to rebuy. This is because:
1. The drop has been fueled by a lack of trust in exchanges.
2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend. Some reasons (not inclusive) : [government bans, regulations, tax laws]
3. Some exchanges have shut down and taken their customers' money with them, so the money is not available to reinvest.
4. The remaining exchanges have had functioning withdrawal methods (unlike gox in the summer).

well said.  I agree 100%

the only thing that's driving these uptrends is fear of loss and consolidation.

[JayJuanGee]

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market.  I.e. never.  But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.

A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50.  With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000.  If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds.

[seleme]

1 day 300 EMA resistance holds for 4th day in a row.

[bitcoinsrus]

300 1 day EMA resistance holds for 4th day in a row.

I don't mean to sound like a nub (which I am) but could someone please explain me these EMA resistance, what they mean and other lingo like this.  I read the forums and I don't understand this.  

Also is there any links you could direct me to (speculation etc....i know btcpredictions, bitcoinwisdom, bitcoinity, bitcointicker.co, tradingview.....am i missing any)
thanks

[JayJuanGee]

Looking at the trades, which maybe is a perverse hobby of mine, I am regularly surprised at how much fiat people have ready on the exchanges for buying in the weekends. Why wait? Why not just buy as soon as the fiat arrives. At least, why not put up an order somewhere below the latest price to take advantage of a dump?

I think that these investors have already calculated a pattern in which no matter what - on average, and if you play the odds of averages, BTC prices are lower on the weekends, and that they do NOT want to show their hands regarding the quantity of their fiat and that their fiat is going to leverage a lot more on the weekends, as well...