Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

[Erdogan]

By the way, as seen on the hourly bars, we have had a nice progression the last few days. I feel comfortable.

Edit: Looking on Huobi, may be not the leading exchange at the moment, but it seems that the wisdom display of the OKcoin trades is not as consistent. I mean, the order book, the last price and the trade history, including the colors (green for a buy) is not consistent. Maybe their api is not as good as on other exchanges.

[MinermanNC]

I think you guys are putting just a bit to much weight into what China may or may not do, yes I know its significant in the short run, but we all need to realize there is so many more markets coming on line that the China syndrome will be less a factor, just look at BTC resolving its own issues as we speak. Its going to come back, there really is only one direction to go and that is back up  

[seleme]

I think you guys are putting just a bit to much weight into what China may or may not do, yes I know its significant in the short run, but we all need to realize there is so many more markets coming on line that the China syndrome will be less a factor, just look at BTC resolving its own issues as we speak. Its going to come back, there really is only one direction to go and that is back up  

I personally wouldn't give a shit about China if market would not too. But since it does, I have no choice.

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

[Davyd05]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Rpiella sounding statement, true none the less

[MinermanNC]

By the way, as seen on the hourly bars, we have had a nice progression the last few days. I feel comfortable.

Agree, BTC has been very stable for 4 days now, albeit frighteningly low at its low point... it keeps chipping away and erasing it previous days average low...

[MinermanNC]

I think you guys are putting just a bit to much weight into what China may or may not do, yes I know its significant in the short run, but we all need to realize there is so many more markets coming on line that the China syndrome will be less a factor, just look at BTC resolving its own issues as we speak. Its going to come back, there really is only one direction to go and that is back up  

I personally wouldn't give a shit about China if market would not too. But since it does, I have no choice.

True, I guess if your holding 100 BTC or more its a big deal lol

[Erdogan]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

[Davyd05]

2900 should break in 4-8hrs my guess.

lol self quoting is fun wonder if 3000 becomes the new target

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

Because I want to learn how to day trade. If I am successful, I will help soak up excess liquidity when the market doesn't need it and I will provide liquidity when the market needs it and in so doing, help stabilize the price which is good for merchants and the general bitcoin using public. If I am an unsuccessful trader, I will be giving money to the people who stabilize bitcoin.  One has to appreciate the genius of Satoshi for getting the incentives right.

[Erdogan]

2900 should break in 4-8hrs my guess.

lol self quoting is fun wonder if 3000 becomes the new target

Nice.

[Davyd05]

2900 should break in 4-8hrs my guess.

lol self quoting is fun wonder if 3000 becomes the new target

Nice.

Not so much wonder as much as late Sunday it should occur if the recent trend holds. Monday can help us judge how bearish Tera really is based on a weekend of no dumps

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

I doubt that we really have fair and balanced reporting in this thread... which sometimes gets the FUD screaming way too disproportionately to the reality of the Bitcoin situation. 

Yes, it is good to have some reality checks and some analysis of downtrends; however, most people who are truly knowledgeable about BTC (even some of the so called bears) recognize the long-term bullish potential of BTC.. whether we getting to some stable price point of $600 for the long term or $1,000 or $10,000 or $100,000. 

Of course there are going to be some government attacks, banking industry attacks and other contrarians, but there seem to be way too many resources going into BTC networks for us to fall short of some kind of decently high returns on our current investments of anything below $1000 per BTC.. minimally in the couple thousand range with a much higher potential.. as most of the knowledgeable ones in this thread and in the BTC sphere seem to recognize... even though there is some short term... back and forth and even propaganda within this thread... and bitcointalk seems to have a pretty high tolerance regarding the content of posts... even if some of the contents seem to be pretty apparently untrue or seem to be for incitement purposes.

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

That does NOT sound like leverage to me.... except maybe to the extent you may have withdrawn more of your first child's college money in order to make your bets.   

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

Because I want to learn how to day trade. If I am successful, I will help soak up excess liquidity when the market doesn't need it and I will provide liquidity when the market needs it and in so doing, help stabilize the price which is good for merchants and the general bitcoin using public. If I am an unsuccessful trader, I will be giving money to the people who stabilize bitcoin.  One has to appreciate the genius of Satoshi for getting the incentives right.

What you are saying kind of sounds like bullshit b/c you can learn day trading by using 1 BTC or less....  

However, I suppose that if you are using 100BTC or more, then the dynamics may be a little bit different... possibly?  

You are NOT really going to make any dents on the bitcoin ecosystem with 100BTC - though yeah, you may be working with a bit more than that; however, I really would think that a guy would need more than 1000 BTC to be a baby whale.. or maybe like a big fish... and maybe whales are generally in the 2,500 BTC and above category?   You do NOT really claim to be any kind of whale or even a big fish.. only one that is contributing in some way to the BTC ecosystem...     Yeah.. right.. maybe?   

What a saga... !!!!  Probably, you are getting tired of some of us attempting to analyze your situation.. and maybe you will be having another meltdown, soon?          

[seleme]

He doesn't know what he is saying or doing anymore... the catalog example of emotional trading, he lost a plot completely.

[JorgeStolfi]

This plot may be of interest:

The red line shows how much one's investment would have been multiplied, on a yearly basis, if one had bought bitcoins at various dates in the past on Bitstamp and sold them on April 01, 2014.  

Thus, for example, if one bought bitcoins at almost any time between December 2011 and November 2013, and sold them on April 01 at 480 USD/BTC (the approximate price on that date), one's  investment would have grown by about a factor of 10 each year, ie., at 900% return over investment per year on the average.

(Unless one bought at the April 2013 peak, in which case the average return rate would have been "only" 200% per year)

On the other hand, if one bought bitcoins in December 2013 or later, and sold on April 01 at 480,  one's investment would have shrunk by a factor of 10 or more per year, that is, at least 90%  loss per year on the average.

(Unless one bought in the last half of December or within a short interval in February, in which case one would have almost recovered one's investment.)

The other two plots show what would have happened if the price on April 01 was 300 USD/BTC (lower line) or 600 USD/BTC (upper line).

Note that, in all three scenarios, the yearly appreciation rate would be almost the same for early investors (about 900% per year), and the lucky/unlucky break date would be nearly the same (second half of November).   If the Apr/01 price had been 600, someone who bought at the right time during the February crash would have made a profit, but otherwise the late (post-November) investors would still have lost ~80% per year.

EDIT: Fixed a 6-day error on the sale date, affecting mainly the final days of March/2014.

[Davyd05]

This plot may be of interest:

The red line shows how much one's investment would have been multiplied, on a yearly basis, if one had bought bitcoins at various dates in the past on Bitstamp and sold them on April 01, 2014.  

Thus, for example, if one bought bitcoins at almost any time between December 2011 and November 2013, and sold them on April 01 at 480 USD/BTC (the approximate price on that date), one's  investment would have grown by about a factor of 10 each year, ie., at 900% return over investment per year on the average.

(Unless one bought at the April 2013 peak, in which case the average return rate would have been "only" 200% per year)

On the other hand, if one bought bitcoins in December 2013 or later, and sold on April 01 at 480,  one's investment would have shrunk by a factor of 10 or more per year, that is, at least 90%  loss per year on the average.

(Unless one bought in the last half of December or within a short interval in February, in which case one would have almost recovered one's investment.)

The other two plots show what would have happened if the price on April 01 was 300 USD/BTC (lower line) or 600 USD/BTC (upper line).

Note that, in all three scenarios, the yearly appreciation rate would be almost the same for early investors (about 900% per year), and the lucky/unlucky break date would be nearly the same (second half of November).   If the Apr/01 price had been 600, someone who bought at the right time during the February crash would have made a profit, but otherwise the late (post-November) investors would still have lost ~80% per year.

surely you mean would have realized a loss if they sold during q1 and early q2 2014? I'll perhaps sell this coin I bought in nov if the price is right.

[octaft]

Martingale trading is a bulletproof strat

Only if you have an infinite line, infinite time, snd a random market.  I.e. never.  But it does form an important part of a balanced algo.

The martingale fallacy is based on the fact that the human brain is not easily fathoming the speed with which an exponential function increases. You have to use your left brain for that, which takes some thought work.

Edit: And you also have to understand the limit of your betting power, and the limit for bets in the casino.

Edit2: And to top it up: Your only gain in the end, if you win before the limits, is the size of your first bet. So if you start low, to be able to go on for a large number of rounds, your win is also low. If you start a martingale series with a one dollar bet, and lose many times, you could end up putting thousands on the table, and if you win in the end, your gain is one dollar, the size of the first bet.

A Martingale strategy works, so long as the win amount is equal to the bet and the odds are 50/50.  With a 1 dollar bet, you are very likely to win your 1 back dollar bet back before you get anywhere near $1000.  If the odds are 50/50, then you would have to lose 7 times in a row, to reach into the $100 arena... highly unlikely if the odds truly are 50/50.. the trick in that regard is making sure that you do NOT miscalculate the odds.

A Martingale strategy does NOT work. If you do the math, you will find you will lose money long-term unless you have infinite funds and no betting limits. Yes, it's unlikely that you will lose 10 times in a row or whatever, but when you do you are wiped out for an enormous amount of money, and it's that scenario which makes you lose money on the strategy long-term.