Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

So put simply,  Chinese bed time = coin dump because they only want to hold fiat overnight?

Not quite...

It is a fact that Huobi's volume is very low around 03:00 am local time. (OKCoin has a steady background traffic that does not disappear even at those times, may be fake volume.)

My impression (not yet verified quantitatively) is that the prices sampled daily at that time of the day are more likely to follow steady trends over successive days  than prices sampled at other hours, or even mean daily prices.   

It is my impression, also, that the price at that hour often deviates from the current trend whenever the trade volume is large at that hour, compared to the daily volume (i.e., when Huobi's clients stay up trading through the night).  However, the price sometimes returns to that trend on the next night, if Huobi's clients go to bed at the usual time.

These impressions are the basis of the "Chinese Slumber Method".  I look the price and volume around 03:00 am.  If the volume too high relative to the day's total volume, I ignore that data point (W near zero).  Then I try to fit a simple trend formula to the most recent good points (W near 1), either a straight line or a shifted exponential, and extrapolate it to predict the value at the next "slumber time".

At each day I must decide whether to continue with the previous trend or assume a trend break and start a new trend,  Bad "slumber points" are preferred trend break points.  Apart from this general principle, the choice of breaks is still subjective (but I hope to automate it, with dynamic programming, if Huobi does not collapse on April 15).

I do not believe that past prices by themselves are useful to predict future prices.  However, I believe that the price is influenced by certain "concrete" factors, such as the amount of money and coins in the exchange, or the general mood of the traders; and that these factors tend to change gradually over several days -- but suddenly at times, in response to news or new exchange policies.  The "Chinese Slumber" method tries to determine the price trends determined by those "concrete" factors.

I don't know why the "slumber prices" should follow the trend more faithfully than prices sampled at other times (if they indeed do).  One guess is that most traders return to their "base positions" (their preferred ratios of CNY:BTC in their accounts) before going to bed; and those moves somehow cause the price to drift back to the "ideal" price determined by the "concrete" factors.  Whereas, during the day they may deviate considerably from those positions, thus adding "noise" to the price.  But that is only a guess.
 

[seleme]

300 1 day EMA resistance holds for 4th day in a row.

I don't mean to sound like a nub (which I am) but could someone please explain me these EMA resistance, what they mean and other lingo like this.  I read the forums and I don't understand this.  

Also is there any links you could direct me to (speculation etc....i know btcpredictions, bitcoinwisdom, bitcoinity, bitcointicker.co, tradingview.....am i missing any)
thanks

EMA is sum of closing prices of some number of days divided by that number of days. So currently 300 EMA is around 465 and acts s resistance last 4 days. It acted as support for 2 days after first Chinese crap came in some 2 weeks ago.

I do expect this resistance to be violated soon though unless China drops another set of crap news.

[billyjoeallen]

Huobi's going nuts. If bitfinex follows, I'm going to make bank.

[bitcoinsrus]

300 1 day EMA resistance holds for 4th day in a row.

I don't mean to sound like a nub (which I am) but could someone please explain me these EMA resistance, what they mean and other lingo like this.  I read the forums and I don't understand this.  

Also is there any links you could direct me to (speculation etc....i know btcpredictions, bitcoinwisdom, bitcoinity, bitcointicker.co, tradingview.....am i missing any)
thanks

EMA is sum of closing prices of some number of days divided by that number of days. So currently 300 EMA is around 465 and acts s resistance last 4 days. It acted as support for 2 days after first Chinese crap came in some 2 weeks ago.

Thanks seleme i appreciate it

[Erdogan]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

[Erdogan]

By the way, as seen on the hourly bars, we have had a nice progression the last few days. I feel comfortable.

Edit: Looking on Huobi, may be not the leading exchange at the moment, but it seems that the wisdom display of the OKcoin trades is not as consistent. I mean, the order book, the last price and the trade history, including the colors (green for a buy) is not consistent. Maybe their api is not as good as on other exchanges.

[MinermanNC]

I think you guys are putting just a bit to much weight into what China may or may not do, yes I know its significant in the short run, but we all need to realize there is so many more markets coming on line that the China syndrome will be less a factor, just look at BTC resolving its own issues as we speak. Its going to come back, there really is only one direction to go and that is back up  

[seleme]

I think you guys are putting just a bit to much weight into what China may or may not do, yes I know its significant in the short run, but we all need to realize there is so many more markets coming on line that the China syndrome will be less a factor, just look at BTC resolving its own issues as we speak. Its going to come back, there really is only one direction to go and that is back up  

I personally wouldn't give a shit about China if market would not too. But since it does, I have no choice.

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

[Davyd05]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Rpiella sounding statement, true none the less

[MinermanNC]

By the way, as seen on the hourly bars, we have had a nice progression the last few days. I feel comfortable.

Agree, BTC has been very stable for 4 days now, albeit frighteningly low at its low point... it keeps chipping away and erasing it previous days average low...

[MinermanNC]

I think you guys are putting just a bit to much weight into what China may or may not do, yes I know its significant in the short run, but we all need to realize there is so many more markets coming on line that the China syndrome will be less a factor, just look at BTC resolving its own issues as we speak. Its going to come back, there really is only one direction to go and that is back up  

I personally wouldn't give a shit about China if market would not too. But since it does, I have no choice.

True, I guess if your holding 100 BTC or more its a big deal lol

[Erdogan]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

[Davyd05]

2900 should break in 4-8hrs my guess.

lol self quoting is fun wonder if 3000 becomes the new target

[billyjoeallen]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

Because I want to learn how to day trade. If I am successful, I will help soak up excess liquidity when the market doesn't need it and I will provide liquidity when the market needs it and in so doing, help stabilize the price which is good for merchants and the general bitcoin using public. If I am an unsuccessful trader, I will be giving money to the people who stabilize bitcoin.  One has to appreciate the genius of Satoshi for getting the incentives right.

[Erdogan]

2900 should break in 4-8hrs my guess.

lol self quoting is fun wonder if 3000 becomes the new target

Nice.

[Davyd05]

2900 should break in 4-8hrs my guess.

lol self quoting is fun wonder if 3000 becomes the new target

Nice.

Not so much wonder as much as late Sunday it should occur if the recent trend holds. Monday can help us judge how bearish Tera really is based on a weekend of no dumps

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

I doubt that we really have fair and balanced reporting in this thread... which sometimes gets the FUD screaming way too disproportionately to the reality of the Bitcoin situation. 

Yes, it is good to have some reality checks and some analysis of downtrends; however, most people who are truly knowledgeable about BTC (even some of the so called bears) recognize the long-term bullish potential of BTC.. whether we getting to some stable price point of $600 for the long term or $1,000 or $10,000 or $100,000. 

Of course there are going to be some government attacks, banking industry attacks and other contrarians, but there seem to be way too many resources going into BTC networks for us to fall short of some kind of decently high returns on our current investments of anything below $1000 per BTC.. minimally in the couple thousand range with a much higher potential.. as most of the knowledgeable ones in this thread and in the BTC sphere seem to recognize... even though there is some short term... back and forth and even propaganda within this thread... and bitcointalk seems to have a pretty high tolerance regarding the content of posts... even if some of the contents seem to be pretty apparently untrue or seem to be for incitement purposes.

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

That does NOT sound like leverage to me.... except maybe to the extent you may have withdrawn more of your first child's college money in order to make your bets.   

[JayJuanGee]

the next dump could be brutal

For the dumper yes. Who would dump at these prices?

I just market sold 3 BTC @ $465.  If this shit continues, I'll double that and then double it again. Then I'll leverage short.

You risk losing all your gains. With leverage, you risk going underwater. Your whole bitcoin experience could be a drain on your wealth. It could turn to a liability. To a total fiasco.

Why this risky behaviour?

Yeah, but if he is saying that he bought in at $10 per BTC.. and in another post he said that his average is below $40  er BTC... He should have a whole hell of a lot of room for playing around and taking risks....   if that is 1,000 or more BTC, which I kind of doubt it to be that much.... but who knows?  working with incomplete information, here... and that is why it is difficult to judge another persons investment strategy without knowing some particulars.

And we all gotta admit that BTC is very much up and down... even though sometimes it seems fucked like we are on our way in one direction, we get the returns back down to some extent.. and if we get a sudden shoot up.. and then who the hell wants to wait 2 months or even 6 months for a flash crash to recover from that?

He could, obviously, conceptually divide his bitcoin stash into two parts, holding one part and speculating with the other part. That would ease his risk a bit. Regardless, shorting the risk part with leverage, it could eat into his hold part, and even erase it, he could still go underwater, both parts taken as a whole.

Edit: He also says he has used credit to buy coins, that means he is leveraged also on his longs, which could take hime out also on the long part if he is unlucky. So that pretty much nullifies my argument, I guess.

In the end, it depends on the price going up. Which I happen to think is a safe bet, but I understand everybody does not agree on that.

The VAST majority of my coins are in cold storage. I am betting my trading stash that the market is going down, but if I am wrong, I win more than I lose.

Fair enough, but that means your shorts work against your cold storage. Why leverage both? Why not just do one of the things, and rightsize your holdings? Give the kids some food and have ease of mind.

Because I want to learn how to day trade. If I am successful, I will help soak up excess liquidity when the market doesn't need it and I will provide liquidity when the market needs it and in so doing, help stabilize the price which is good for merchants and the general bitcoin using public. If I am an unsuccessful trader, I will be giving money to the people who stabilize bitcoin.  One has to appreciate the genius of Satoshi for getting the incentives right.

What you are saying kind of sounds like bullshit b/c you can learn day trading by using 1 BTC or less....  

However, I suppose that if you are using 100BTC or more, then the dynamics may be a little bit different... possibly?  

You are NOT really going to make any dents on the bitcoin ecosystem with 100BTC - though yeah, you may be working with a bit more than that; however, I really would think that a guy would need more than 1000 BTC to be a baby whale.. or maybe like a big fish... and maybe whales are generally in the 2,500 BTC and above category?   You do NOT really claim to be any kind of whale or even a big fish.. only one that is contributing in some way to the BTC ecosystem...     Yeah.. right.. maybe?   

What a saga... !!!!  Probably, you are getting tired of some of us attempting to analyze your situation.. and maybe you will be having another meltdown, soon?