Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pinky]

anyone here trades on bitfinex? what is the overall experience there ? are they trustworthy ? 

they say that they are in Beta, so where are they located and do we know the owners....to be honest, I was trading Litecoin exclusively on BTC-e, but I don't feel comfortable with leaving my funds there for more than a couple of hours, I get really nervous, I missed many opportunities because of that... now I am considering to move to Bitfinex for the time being until bitstamp adds Litecoin.


I only need to trade LTC/USD and vice-versa without the need to withdraw Fiat, so do I need to be verified ?

 

It's ok, but low liquidity compared to btc-e.
Trust? Are you serious? Of course you can't trust them. This is bitcoin, everyone is a potential scammer or idiot.

[igorr]

does anybody still care about walls? down to $400, it just crossed the 15k mark!

It is fake wall.
Just compare with huobi wall, and
you can see.
There no have any logic.
Huobi has a volume of daily transactions three times more than bitstamp and should have a greater wall than bitstamp.

China exchanges are more market order fans than limit order, wall is likely real

just compare volume !

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[JorgeStolfi]

anyone here trades on bitfinex? [ ... ] where are they located and do we know the owners....

They are located in Hong Kong but cater to foreign clients only.  Their CEO has a French name, somewhere I read they had some Canadian investors.
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1t9h2r/are_our_funds_safe_on_bitfinex_it_is_a_hong_kong/

[jonoiv]

So put simply,  Chinese bed time = coin dump because they only want to hold fiat overnight?

Not quite...

It is a fact that Huobi's volume is very low around 03:00 am local time. (OKCoin has a steady background traffic that does not disappear even at those times, may be fake volume.)

My impression (not yet verified quantitatively) is that the prices sampled daily at that time of the day are more likely to follow steady trends over successive days  than prices sampled at other hours, or even mean daily prices.  

It is my impression, also, that the price at that hour often deviates from the current trend whenever the trade volume is large at that hour, compared to the daily volume (i.e., when Huobi's clients stay up trading through the night).  However, the price sometimes returns to that trend on the next night, if Huobi's clients go to bed at the usual time.

These impressions are the basis of the "Chinese Slumber Method".  I look the price and volume around 03:00 am.  If the volume too high relative to the day's total volume, I ignore that data point (W near zero).  Then I try to fit a simple trend formula to the most recent good points (W near 1), either a straight line or a shifted exponential, and extrapolate it to predict the value at the next "slumber time".

At each day I must decide whether to continue with the previous trend or assume a trend break and start a new trend,  Bad "slumber points" are preferred trend break points.  Apart from this general principle, the choice of breaks is still subjective (but I hope to automate it, with dynamic programming, if Huobi does not collapse on April 15).

I do not believe that past prices by themselves are useful to predict future prices.  However, I believe that the price is influenced by certain "concrete" factors, such as the amount of money and coins in the exchange, or the general mood of the traders; and that these factors tend to change gradually over several days -- but suddenly at times, in response to news or new exchange policies.  The "Chinese Slumber" method tries to determine the price trends determined by those "concrete" factors.

I don't know why the "slumber prices" should follow the trend more faithfully than prices sampled at other times (if they indeed do).  One guess is that most traders return to their "base positions" (their preferred ratios of CNY:BTC in their accounts) before going to bed; and those moves somehow cause the price to drift back to the "ideal" price determined by the "concrete" factors.  Whereas, during the day they may deviate considerably from those positions, thus adding "noise" to the price.  But that is only a guess.
 

My brain is not as big as a lot of people on this forum and I can't claim to fully understand your method.  But i can grasp the concept (I think).  

I like to use more, visual prediction methods.  Looking at your diagrams there is obviously some truth to it. Are you saying even though the volume is low at these times on Huobi, the overall sentiment is like an amplification of feeling causing a chain reaction, through the collective "final trade" of the night?

You made predictions last night.  Do you still hold true to those predictions?  where do you see the price going in the next 2-4 hours?

[JorgeStolfi]

Are you saying even though the volume is low at these times on Huobi, the overall sentiment is like an amplification of feeling causing a chain reaction, through the collective "final trade" of the night?

Something like that.  In fact the low volume means less "noise" (volatility) at that time.  For one thing, at those times the arbitrage traders can achieve equilibrium between China and the West, whereas during the day they are chasing a fast-moving target. 

I believe that arbitrage traders largely copy Huobi's price to the West during the day, because Huobi has better liquidity. However, when China is asleep, they sometimes copy a rising or falling Western trend to Huobi. On those days, the volume at the "slumber time" is higher than normal because of arbitrage, so the method will give low weight to those data points.

I don't knwo about "chain reaction", perhaps it suffices that enough traders decide on their own to "reset" their positions.

You made predictions last night.  Do you still hold true to those predictions?  where do you see the price going in the next 2-4 hours?

Since there have been no news or events that could cause a break in the underlying trend, the prediction still stands.  It may be voided if there will be significant trade around 03:00 am.
 
However, note that my predictions are intended only as a test the Method, not as advice to traders.  If you lose money because you trusted my predictions, you will have made at least two big mistakes. 

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Not bad at all I see progress in it. ~440 in a hard days it is not bad at all

[igorr]

Explanation

Not bad at all I see progress in it. ~440 in a hard days it is not bad at all

There is no progress.

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[JayJuanGee]

Four days volume descending like a staircase.  You'd think there would be a battle over these coins running a $15 discount over last night,>60% discount from the ATH. The only demand I see is people like me waiting to buy back the same coins we dumped 12 hours ago.

There are other people like you...     OM  F'ng G!!!

[thefunkybits]

Anybody home? If we don't break 500 this time im gonna lose it 

Technicals are looking sexy

[podyx]

choo choo

[igorr]

Need the price about $800 to reverse trend or below $300 usd to further strengthen downward trend.


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[jonoiv]

choo choo

Huobi is bang on the trend line now.  It needs to break 2880   .  it's at 2869  now and needs another 635 BTC to move up just 11 CNY.

If it fails it's bounced off the trend line twice, thats pretty bearish.  if it succeeds then I'll buy.

[thefunkybits]

Need the price about $800 to reverse trend

$650 on stamp by Friday would be enough for me...we gotta go hard and fast (4 day EMA and 1 day MACD cross may trip off some bots for us )

[igorr]

Need the price about $800 to reverse trend

$650 on stamp by Friday would be enough for me...we gotta go hard and fast (4 day EMA and 1 day MACD cross may trip off some bots for us )

I know, you need $650  to catch the good shorting position.

[jonoiv]

choo choo

Huobi is bang on the trend line now.  It needs to break 2880   .  it's at 2869  now and needs another 635 BTC to move up just 11 CNY.

If it fails it's bounced off the trend line twice, thats pretty bearish.  if it succeeds then I'll buy.

[EuroTrash]

Care to explain the logic you used to lay those lines?

[thefunkybits]

Care to explain the logic you used to lay those lines?

[dreamspark]

Im feeling pretty bullish short term based on the general price increase over the weekend. A fourth green daily candle and a 1d MACD cross could see the party get started.

[jonoiv]

Care to explain the logic you used to lay those lines?

that really made me lol.

Edit.  It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.

It's only been above it only once for any sustained period,  after the Gox made the bankrupt statement.  the price rested on it before dropping under it again after the next "China Ban" news.  

As you will notice, it's there again but fails to get through it.  Im not saying it won't break it again,  but there is strong resistance on this line.

[nrd525]

Martingalers lose their entire stash all the time on just-dice.com.   I'm not sure what the record is for losing 50/50 bets in a row, but it is something very high like 15+.