Even though I agree with the overall message of this meme, I get the sense that
none of us really understands bitcoin with any kind of well rounded knowledge, but many of us who have studied bitcoin for a long period of time have gotten to know certain parts of bitcoin.. just like the blind men touching varying parts of an elephant, and surely I am including my lil selfie into a group that might have gotten some understanding of one or two parts of the elephant, so maybe I know more than the brand new person who either is just coming up to the elephant or has ONLY been told about the elephant.
By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.
We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet? something like $14k. Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months? I might be willing to take the other side of that bet. We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.
You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.
I am initially trying to figure out if we might be able to figure out some possible agreeable bettable terms in which we are in agreement that the terms are clear and we are in agreement that each of us would take the opposite side of the bet. I don't really want to bet, but if you are stating some pretty outrageous ideas, I would be willing to see if you would be willing to stand behind your ideas more than merely spouting them out.
If you may well realize, that historically in this thread, there are a lot of members who spout out all kinds of bullshit and even outrageous and somewhat non-specific bullshit, but then when it comes down to figuring out some kinds of possible bettable terms, then we get crickets. I would actually prefer someone else bet, but I am willing to enter into a bet as long as we can work out agreeable terms.
For example if you were to say that the odds for the BTC price to go below $14k were greater than 50% within the next 3 months, then surely I would be willing to take that otherside of that bet if we figured out an agreeable amount to bet.
Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?
First of all, why would I do that when I have ONLY conceded that I have more than 0.63BTC, so why would I enter into a bet that may well consume the whole of my conceded bitcoin stash size?
Another thing is that if we were to find something that had really high odds on one end and low odds on the other end, then I think that the bet size would change if one side were to be giving higher odds to the other, but if we are trying to figure out a potential 50% threshold, then each of the sides would be betting the same amount. So for example if you were to proclaim that the odds of BTC to go below $10k were greater than 50%, then I may well be wiling to bet a higher amount on that kind of a bet.. otherwise if we cannot find the most outrageous of statements, then I might not be willing to bet.. because I would need to perceive that the odds were in my favor of winning, just like you would need to perceive that the odds were in your favor of winning or that the pay off was sufficiently good. if you are trying to move the amount up.. or maybe you are wanting to whimp out of making any bet because you want the amounts to be higher so you can have more of a dramatic effect.. blah blah blah.. which to me shows that you are probably not serious..
In regards to the size of the bet, probably it would be something in the lower ranges, perhaps something like in the 0.001 BTC or lower ranges (which is around 100k sats)... and most likely we would need to find and/or agree upon a person to escrow, too.
If we work out the terms, there might be some other members willing to bet more, and maybe all the bets might add up to 1 BTC.. who knows? I would like to work out the terms of the bet before committing to high amounts or trying to act like some kind of a high roller and bullshit like that. I don't need that kind of attention as a supposed BIG baller. I already have more attention than I wish to have, relatively speaking and in an ideal world.. if such an ideal world were to exist.
I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?
That's tempting, but it is NOT really that outrageous in comparison to my own views of possible bottoms... and so it sounds like that is the lowest that you are willing to assign your 50/50 odds? So you are suggesting that the odds are greater than 50% that the price will touch less than $15,500 before April 1, 2023 - that's if we pick the last day of March and midnight as our cut-off for the bet? If I am not willing to take the bet, then there might be another member in these here parts who would be willing to play ball with that number and take your bet (that seems less outrageous than things you had been saying previously in regards to $10k)..
Let me ponder over it, and in the meantime maybe another member will be eager to take the other side of that. I am pretty sure that I would assign less than 50% odds to such, but I am not feeling as strongly about it as if you were to pick a lower number. For example, if you picked lower than $13k, then I might be able to give you 2/1 odds... but then we still need to figure the bet-size for that, too 100k satoshis if you lose and 200k satoshis if I lose.. I am thinking sub $10k, I might be able to give you 4/1 odds on something like that.. you have to pay me 100k satoshis if we do not go below $10k and I pay you 400k satoshis if we go below $10k... before April 1, 2023.
Anyone more creative out there?
or more willing than me to enter into betting terms with gallianooo on his seemingly increasingly less bearish
(than previously stated) terms?
Anyone trustworthy wiling to escrow? and what would be your fees, if any?
By the way, I will give you credit, so far, gallianooo, that you are at least discussing possible bettable terms as compared with some earlier interactions on the topic when outrageous claims were being made, even though it seems a bit to me that you are backing off of some of your more outrageous claims, and maybe that is my fault for trying to pick a higher number and possible 50/50 terms..
You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.
Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?
I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?
JJG won't bet you on that number. Neither would I .
But I should not assume what he will do. He can type for himself.
Yeah.. you are right about my perception of that gallianooo's numbers are NOT very bold.. and from my perception, gallianooo does seem to be backing off of his more extreme statements from earlier.. but I might have contributed to causing some of that backing off..... my bbbbaaaaaddd to not stick with (and push for) the more extreme numbers.. and maybe we will figure out an acceptable betting threshold .. .perhaps? perhaps?..
if you guys bet 0.001 or 0.01 each. I will escrow it for no charge
including the fees to send the coins to the winner.