Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[igorr]

therefore MtGox is dead

[Rampion]

Its been feeling kinda bottomish to me for the last days... I confess I bought more. We might go lower, but I cannot see bitcoin retesting $266 or lower at this stage.

It surely looks like the next couple of bubbles will be massive. Till now only a little minority of early adopters wrapped their heads around bitcoin and managed to buy some coins, but if it becomes easier for the masses to buy in the following mania phase will take the price to the stars and beyond.

[fonzie]

Average bitcoin buyer & supporter (Sr.member):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=559630.0

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 07

Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2929 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 472 USD.


Plot legend

This last data point was again good (S = 0.0030, W = 0.835), and almost aligned with the previous three points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to stick with a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last four Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2670.77, B = 64.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD (it was 6.23, 6.20, 6.13 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 23:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

This was again an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2860 CNY
Error: 6 CNY (~1 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 459 USD
Error: 7 USD
 
NOTE: If you lost money because you trusted my predictions, you made at least two big mistakes.

[fotosonics]

Bitcoin will have its day in Congress.

[fonzie]

CNBC Video

"It hasn´t completly collapsed yet"

Ross sees Bitcoin trading in a descending triangle with a base at the $500 level. Given that its peak was around $1,100, the triangle would project a downside of equal magnitude in the opposite direction. In this case, that would be negative $100.

"Now, that doesn't really make sense," says Ross. "But, given the recent history – given the MtGox scandal – I could see this thing at negative. It could actually cost you money to own this thing at the end of the day. It could just disappear that quickly."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/this-could-be-the-end-of-the-bitcoin-era-220746326.html

[chessnut]

LOL that video is hilarious. they have no idea at all. If they wanted to say something that was actually negative, they could talk about the third party deposits ban. but that is not the end of bitcoin at all. I love watching shit like that at the bottom.

[fonzie]

LOL that video is hilarious. they have no idea at all. If they wanted to say something that was actually negative, they could talk about the third party deposits ban. but that is not the end of bitcoin at all. I love watching shit like that at the bottom.

I´m sorry but these are confirmed LEGIT TA ANALYSTS FROM WALL STREET!

[chessnut]

LOL that video is hilarious. they have no idea at all. If they wanted to say something that was actually negative, they could talk about the third party deposits ban. but that is not the end of bitcoin at all. I love watching shit like that at the bottom.

I´m sorry but these are confirmed LEGIT TA ANALYSTS FROM WALL STREET!

I think somebody here needs to tell that guy that his stupid lines on his chart dont mean shit. he's just drawing them to fit LOL.

but seriously, do you believe this? the fundamental reason they offer for bitcoin crashing is capital gains, when bitcoin will not be used by the crowd, only on behalf of the crowd. they are blaming the crash on mtgox, but mt gox is just FUD! it's happened! over!

[jonoiv]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 07

Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2929 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 472 USD.


Plot legend

This last data point was again good (S = 0.0030, W = 0.835), and almost aligned with the previous three points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to stick with a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last four Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2670.77, B = 64.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD (it was 6.23, 6.20, 6.13 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 23:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

This was again an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2860 CNY
Error: 6 CNY (~1 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 459 USD
Error: 7 USD
 
NOTE: If you lost money because you trusted my predictions, you made at least two big mistakes.

Im not  sure it's following that line anymore, it's following the trend line from December.  

There was just a 560 BTC pump in the last 5 mins.  As soon as it tries to break through new sell walls appear and it fails.  

[fonzie]

LOL that video is hilarious. they have no idea at all. If they wanted to say something that was actually negative, they could talk about the third party deposits ban. but that is not the end of bitcoin at all. I love watching shit like that at the bottom.

I´m sorry but these are confirmed LEGIT TA ANALYSTS FROM WALL STREET!

I think somebody here needs to tell that guy that his stupid lines on his chart dont mean shit. he's just drawing them to fit LOL.

but seriously, do you believe this? the fundamental reason they offer for bitcoin crashing is capital gains, when bitcoin will not be used by the crowd, only on behalf of the crowd. they are blaming the crash on mtgox, but mt gox is just FUD! it's happened! over!

You´re right, they seem to be a bit uninformed about how bad it really looks I just wrote an e-mail to CNBC to keep them up to date about the upcoming CHINA tragedy that is about to happen. Maybe we will soon see some new updated analysis from them.

 

Edit: Also MtGOX is fact and no FUD. China news right now are a bit FUDdish but will soon proven to be rock solid facts.

[cee-euros]

Btc-e doin stuff:
Large moving ask wall turned into large moving bid wall. Fishy

[JorgeStolfi]

Im not  sure it's following that line anymore, it's following the trend line from December.  

There was just a 560 BTC pump in the last 5 mins.  As soon as it tries to break through new sell walls appear and it fails.  

[ image ]

I can't dispute your analysis... but, would dare to give an explicit prediction --  xxx USD/BYC at time hh:mm?

[chessnut]

You´re right, they seem to be a bit uninformed about how bad it really looks I just wrote an e-mail to CNBC to keep them up to date about the upcoming CHINA tragedy that is about to happen. Maybe we will soon see some new updated analysis from them.

 

Edit: Also MtGOX is fact and no FUD. China news right now are a bit FUDdish but will soon proven to be rock solid facts.

FACT: MtGox is FUD, it has not had fundamental weight on the market since withdrawals were halted. you have had all the facts you could hope for from china, and the market is strong. by the 14th, the downtrend will be OVER.

[heartastack]

What planet are you living on where you say a wall is fake just because the exchange its on has less volume. Ever think maybe the people selling don't want Chinese Yen stuck on a Chinese exchange.

Chinese Yen... What planet indeed.

[roslinpl]

Explanation

As good as it looks! Price did not drop anoter 30$ during this day! Great news IMO!

[jonoiv]

Im not  sure it's following that line anymore, it's following the trend line from December.  

There was just a 560 BTC pump in the last 5 mins.  As soon as it tries to break through new sell walls appear and it fails.  

[ image ]

I can't dispute your analysis... but, would dare to give an explicit prediction --  xxx USD/BYC at time hh:mm?

I really don't know.  At the moment (and since December), this line seems to have a gravitational pull.   It goes over,  It's  pushed back down.   It's goes under It's sucked back into it.

My only predictions are of the conspiratorial variety.  Like there are higher powers with extreme amounts of bitcoins and fiat.  

The line is like a black hole.     It's being pumped again now on BTCE... it's crazy amounts of money with not much movement.  

[fonzie]

I haven´t watched BTC-E orderbook in a while. Since when is Mr. crazy bot active over there. He´s rapidly changing the amount of his 4-8 asks between 20-80BTC all the time.

[MinermanNC]

You´re right, they seem to be a bit uninformed about how bad it really looks I just wrote an e-mail to CNBC to keep them up to date about the upcoming CHINA tragedy that is about to happen. Maybe we will soon see some new updated analysis from them.

 

Edit: Also MtGOX is fact and no FUD. China news right now are a bit FUDdish but will soon proven to be rock solid facts.

FACT: MtGox is FUD, it has not had fundamental weight on the market since withdrawals were halted. you have had all the facts you could hope for from china, and the market is strong. by the 14th, the downtrend will be OVER.

That's right 

[Erdogan]

If you say you think it is going up, that is kind of a nonce if you don't at the same time say your perspective.

I thought it was a sure thing (all the time) that it would always go up in the timespan of 3 months.

Since I was obviously wrong, I take the standard financial advisor response: Extend your timeframe. (At the bottom of the stock market, some advisors said you had to have a timespan of 2 generations for your stock investments).

Now I think that you will always gain on a bitcoin buy in the timespan of 6 months.

 

Edit: ... and I am ready to extend it more, perpetually if necessary!