Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1576577802475667456

FUN FACT: I'm not a miner, but this makes me really want to go back to 13 years ago

13 years ago, bitcoin did not even have a price.. so it is a bit unrealistic to be talking about bitcoin in terms of monetary value especially for normies who were not actually mining it.. and 12 years ago it was barely starting to get a monetary value even though some exchanges were starting to show up.. so maybe if we talk about 10 or 11 years ago, we are being a bit more realistic in terms of any kind of normies (who are not miners) starting to be getting their hands on bitcoin.. maybe paying a dollar or less per bitcoin if we are talking about 2011-ish.. and sure there was even a wide variety of prices back then too with a price bounce from $1 to $32 and back to $2 and then getting caught in sub $5 prices for a large amount of time (before my time so just looking at charts and reading some threads) .. while at the same time ONLY being discussed in niche circles prior to 2012.. so maybe by 2013 some exchanges started to show up in which more normies could get a hold of some bitcoin (and maybe even local bitcoins was helpful and more available during that time in bigger cities)... 9-10 years ago..

The next BTC is BTC.

Stop searching google for which coin is going to be "the next BTC". Hopefully You're already invested in it.

I would think that people involved in this thread would be buying bitcoin rather than getting distracted.. but I will let you know that we have some veteran WO members who seem to think that getting into dollars (and earning some yield on that shitcoin) is a good idea.. so not everyone in these parts recognize that bitcoin is the actually thing to be stacking.. rather than dollar yields or some other distractions that might be marketed as the "next bitcoin" as you had mentioned to be another way that a lot of folks are distracted. which has frequently been the case in bitcoinlandia.. People think that they are smarter, they can sell their BTC buy lower.. they can wait for lower prices.. and a bunch of other ways that they fail and refuse to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP.. It's an ongoing theme.. sorry to say.. sad but true, and gosh people in fiat landia don't seem to know where to put their money... they are just hoping for the best.. even if they hear about bitcoin, they seem to NOT have time for that.

Hooootttt.... Bitcoin found a nice location to stay...

if I were Bitcoin, I would probably move down a little bit further  

Whoaza!!!!!!  Cheering for Bitcoin to go down does not tend to go over very well in these here parts most of the time.   


Is this a trick?

[Cryptolove20015]

What is a block halving event?
As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140). As of now, the block reward is 6.25 coins per block and will decrease to 3.125 coins per block post halving.

Source: Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

buddy is the only analyst I trust

[Ami0]

Pretty typical September for #Bitcoin   . Surprise surprise. The good news is that it was the best red September we have had. lol



"intocryptoverse"

[Lucius]

This Saturday, we detected that the group Witmer Locos Salvatruchos, of the MS13 Freedom Program, was still active and responsible for the killings in Comasagua.
2,000 soldiers have surrounded the entire municipality. We know the gang members are still there. Source: https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1576495647016247299

What is really happening in the country of El Salvador right now ? is there an internal conflict being resolved by the government of El Salvador ?

What is happening is the reality in more or less all countries of Central and South America, and since El Salvador became interesting to the rest of the world, the problem with their local gangs has only come into public focus. There is no doubt that the country has a huge gang problem, and even Bukele canceled his trip to a conference in Miami this year because of it.

However, I think that in the context of general security and tourism, the problem of gangs is not so pronounced, because supposedly the income from tourism has increased, and some have even linked it to the fact that Bitcoin is legal tender in that country. However, I rely more on the experiences of those who were there, and can tell us from personal experience something more about when it comes to paying with Bitcoin, and if we read this post, then it becomes a little clearer that it is not easy to pay something with Bitcoin in that country if you are not using the official Chivo wallet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mRTHroo]

Elon Musk

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davian144]

^{State Treasurer Curtis Loftis, right, learns about bitcoin in El Salvador. | Photo provided}

In the mountain town of Ataco in El Salvador, a female street vendor sold flatbread to S.C. State Treasurer Curtis Loftis Jr., but he did not accept U.S. dollars or another foreign currency. Instead, she wanted bitcoin. Source: https://charlestoncitypaper.com/loftis-used-digital-bread-to-buy-bread-in-el-salvador/

It's so easy there where Bitcoin has become a means of payment that almost everyone wants and is happily accepted when buying the desired food.
This means that there (El Salvador) can not only use fiat currencies such as US dollars or other foreign currencies, but can also rely on Bitcoin as a substitute and this has really made it easier for everyone there (El Salvador).

[xhomerx10]

Hooootttt.... Bitcoin found a nice location to stay...

if I were Bitcoin, I would probably move down a little bit further  

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

And the dollar has crushed btc in the 2021 nov 1 to 2022 oct 1 time-slot.

And btc has buried the dollar in the 2009 jan to 2022 oct time slot .


we can go on and on.

My 140000 doge was worth 280 bucks in 2020 it is now worth around 8400

My doge will never run out of rewards. and every year the inflation of doge decreases.

BTC will run out of rewards and the key question will be how well does the LN feed coins to miners.

as I have stated I am 65 this issue will come to a head down the road. Most likely I will be gone when this happens say.

2024 3.12500000 coin reward
2028 1.56250000 coin reward
2032 0.78125000 coin reward
2036 0.39062500 coin reward
2040 0.19581250 coin reward I am 83.  


At this point in time LN will have really saved mining or killed it off only 18 years from now.

Just saying

oh I still stack btc but frankly the numbers above are a cause for concern.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

And the dollar has crushed btc in the 2021 nov 1 to 2022 oct 1 time-slot.

And btc has buried the dollar in the 2009 jan to 2022 oct time slot .


we can go on and on.

My 140000 doge was worth 280 bucks in 2020 it is now worth around 8400

My doge will never run out of rewards. and every year the inflation of doge decreases.

BTC will run out of rewards and the key question will be how well does the LN feed coins to miners.

as I have stated I am 65 this issue will come to a head down the road. Most likely I will be gone when this happens say.

2024 3.12500000 coin reward
2028 1.56250000 coin reward
2032 0.78125000 coin reward
2036 0.39062500 coin reward
2040 0.19581250 coin reward I am 83.  


At this point in time LN will have really saved mining or killed it off only 18 years from now.

Just saying

oh I still stack btc but frankly the numbers above are a cause for concern.

The lightning network is not really what will drive this.  If it continues to be a success it will be one major customer for block space on the base layer.  But there will be other customers.  All the other layer 2 stuff, and all the folks wanting to do base layer transactions for whatever reason.

Miners will either survive on fees, or not.  That is the crux of it.

Napkin math and thoughts:
Currently the block subsidy is ~$125k
With 1000-3000 transactions per block we are looking at fees needing to be $40-125 per transaction on the base layer.
Many individual coin moves can be bundled into a single transaction bringing the cost per tx down effectively for the consumer
Increasing the block size is not 100% out of the question, but VERY contentious.
Adding a tail emission to Bitcoin is even MORE contentious.
We can NEVER make blocks big enough to do all transactions on the base layer without breaking the distributed part of the tech
Therefore 2nd layer tech is an ABSOLUTE necessity both for keeping the ledger decentralized, as well as making payments cheap.

Either fees become fairly high, and most of us transact for coffee on other layers, or Bitcoin is only ever used by a small subset of the world population (recently saw the Samourai guys claiming that is the future which they believe -  I do not see how, though)

So, in my opinion lightning and other Layer 2 tech does not threaten miners AT ALL.  In fact it is quite the contrary.  Without it miners would have no hope of the fees ever being able to go high enough to support them.  Layer 2 MAY indeed have a cost to the miners NOW in that it is taking pressure off the need for blockspace.  But until fees go up, that is what the subsidy is for.
 

[Gachapin]

Hooootttt.... Bitcoin found a nice location to stay...

if I were Bitcoin, I would probably move down a little bit further  

Whoaza!!!!!!  Cheering for Bitcoin to go down does not tend to go over very well in these here parts most of the time.   


Is this a trick?

....in some rare cases sacrifices need to be made