Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

And the dollar has crushed btc in the 2021 nov 1 to 2022 oct 1 time-slot.

And btc has buried the dollar in the 2009 jan to 2022 oct time slot .


we can go on and on.

My 140000 doge was worth 280 bucks in 2020 it is now worth around 8400

My doge will never run out of rewards. and every year the inflation of doge decreases.

BTC will run out of rewards and the key question will be how well does the LN feed coins to miners.

as I have stated I am 65 this issue will come to a head down the road. Most likely I will be gone when this happens say.

2024 3.12500000 coin reward
2028 1.56250000 coin reward
2032 0.78125000 coin reward
2036 0.39062500 coin reward
2040 0.19581250 coin reward I am 83.  


At this point in time LN will have really saved mining or killed it off only 18 years from now.

Just saying

oh I still stack btc but frankly the numbers above are a cause for concern.

The lightning network is not really what will drive this.  If it continues to be a success it will be one major customer for block space on the base layer.  But there will be other customers.  All the other layer 2 stuff, and all the folks wanting to do base layer transactions for whatever reason.

Miners will either survive on fees, or not.  That is the crux of it.

Napkin math and thoughts:
Currently the block subsidy is ~$125k
With 1000-3000 transactions per block we are looking at fees needing to be $40-125 per transaction on the base layer.
Many individual coin moves can be bundled into a single transaction bringing the cost per tx down effectively for the consumer
Increasing the block size is not 100% out of the question, but VERY contentious.
Adding a tail emission to Bitcoin is even MORE contentious.
We can NEVER make blocks big enough to do all transactions on the base layer without breaking the distributed part of the tech
Therefore 2nd layer tech is an ABSOLUTE necessity both for keeping the ledger decentralized, as well as making payments cheap.

Either fees become fairly high, and most of us transact for coffee on other layers, or Bitcoin is only ever used by a small subset of the world population (recently saw the Samourai guys claiming that is the future which they believe -  I do not see how, though)

So, in my opinion lightning and other Layer 2 tech does not threaten miners AT ALL.  In fact it is quite the contrary.  Without it miners would have no hope of the fees ever being able to go high enough to support them.  Layer 2 MAY indeed have a cost to the miners NOW in that it is taking pressure off the need for blockspace.  But until fees go up, that is what the subsidy is for.
 

Not arguing the need for scaling.
I just do not see how the LN will feed fees to the miners.
If it strips to much of the fees away BTC has a long term issue of usefulness to a miner.

So down the  road say
2040 under .4 btc in block rewards
2044 under .2 btc in block rewards
2048 under .1 btc in block rewards
2052 under .05 btc in block rewards
2056 under .025 btc in block rewards [I am 99 at this point but if you are 22 right now you will be 56]


Btc may not have a lot of mining support.
Also if a sat is a $1  moving coins will be hard to do.

I am not anti btc but I see it as a 10000 t bill in the longer run.

Doge on the other hand could be the currency.

it can carry 10x the transactions that btc can do.
it has lower inflation rate in terms of percent of coins added every year
and it can 2x the block size if needed at least in 2028 and say 2038 and finally 2048

so 80x the transactions makes it easier to uses for coinage.

I am basically saying this thread needs to realize BTC needs some minions to rule and Doge is a good minion for BTC.

I stack both

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[Inwestour]

By the way.. don't get me wrong.. it seems that I am the same as you (Cryptolove20015), and likely many of the other dominantly BTC HODLers who frequent this thread in the frame of mind to welcome UPpity outbursts whenever such UPpity outbursts might come - and we have had several of those kinds of "relief rallies" in bitcoin's history - while at the same time it can seem like forever waiting for them.. and for me the 8-ish months in 2015 felt like forever for me.. and the seemingly ONLY 4-5 month wait in late 2018/early 2019 did not feel close to as painful as the 2015 wait....   Every time, we can say that this time is different in the sense that there are always going to be differences that cause the uncertainty to feel real this time.. and maybe the bearwhales have to cause those kinds of feelings to the extent that they are capable of accomplishing such pain and suffering upon the BTC HODLers .. in the sense of pushing the BTC price down as low as it can be gotten and to keep it down as low as it can be kept for as long as possible.. yet it still seems that at some point they will run out of ammunition.. We do have a limited BTC supply and it does seem that having such limited supply could cause some of those big cocky beartwats to get sufficiently reckt.. even if they might be a very large institutional actor, as state or some combination of those kinds of historically manipulating twats who want to (and feel that they can) always get their way (until they don't).

I thought about it, how difficult it must be to implement, and how much resources you need to own in order to lower the price of bitcoin and keep it at the bottom for a long period. Because they are also played against by very big players who buy. I mean how difficult it is. I will give my opinion that in this bear market, I feel some confidence that bitcoin will rise again. In previous cycles, I had a lot of doubts and actually thought that maybe cryptocurrencies have experienced their peak. But after that, everything happened again, the bull market came and there was a great growth, but I was without bitcoin, it depressed me.

Well, this time I decided not to make that mistake again and maybe it's good that I started buying around the beginning of the bear market, there may not be a better time. I also thought that if my faith in bitcoin is still strong, then perhaps we have not hit the bottom yet? Or I just believed in bitcoin and now I can't be broken.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Just saying

(JJG stuff)

You're talking to BPIP #2. Show some respect, #48.

Oh gawd   

I should batslap you for even thinking that kind of nonsense.

In udder wurds, we got a BPIP#2 that doesn't seem to know nuttin.

 

Been in bitcoin for 10 years and don't gots no bitcoins.


Worse yet holding onto (accumulating) (even pumping) doggie coins as the future of POW coins.


 

By the way.. don't get me wrong.. it seems that I am the same as you (Cryptolove20015), and likely many of the other dominantly BTC HODLers who frequent this thread in the frame of mind to welcome UPpity outbursts whenever such UPpity outbursts might come - and we have had several of those kinds of "relief rallies" in bitcoin's history - while at the same time it can seem like forever waiting for them.. and for me the 8-ish months in 2015 felt like forever for me.. and the seemingly ONLY 4-5 month wait in late 2018/early 2019 did not feel close to as painful as the 2015 wait....   Every time, we can say that this time is different in the sense that there are always going to be differences that cause the uncertainty to feel real this time.. and maybe the bearwhales have to cause those kinds of feelings to the extent that they are capable of accomplishing such pain and suffering upon the BTC HODLers .. in the sense of pushing the BTC price down as low as it can be gotten and to keep it down as low as it can be kept for as long as possible.. yet it still seems that at some point they will run out of ammunition.. We do have a limited BTC supply and it does seem that having such limited supply could cause some of those big cocky beartwats to get sufficiently reckt.. even if they might be a very large institutional actor, as state or some combination of those kinds of historically manipulating twats who want to (and feel that they can) always get their way (until they don't).

I thought about it, how difficult it must be to implement, and how much resources you need to own in order to lower the price of bitcoin and keep it at the bottom for a long period. Because they are also played against by very big players who buy. I mean how difficult it is. I will give my opinion that in this bear market, I feel some confidence that bitcoin will rise again. In previous cycles, I had a lot of doubts and actually thought that maybe cryptocurrencies have experienced their peak. But after that, everything happened again, the bull market came and there was a great growth, but I was without bitcoin, it depressed me.

Well, this time I decided not to make that mistake again and maybe it's good that I started buying around the beginning of the bear market, there may not be a better time. I also thought that if my faith in bitcoin is still strong, then perhaps we have not hit the bottom yet? Or I just believed in bitcoin and now I can't be broken.

If you are investing into bitcoin with your excess cash (if there is such a thing?), then you should realize that you are continuing to build your BTC stash, whether you are able to invest $100 per week or you can only invest $10 per week, and I would imagine that after the first 4 years of investing into BTC at whatever was your rate, you are going to be in a better position to decide what to do next and you should be in a better position to assess whether your ongoing investment into bitcoin had put you into a better position than if you either had not invested into bitcoin at all, or if you had chosen some other investment or if you had chosen not to invest.  These are not easy questions to answer unless you have acquired enough confidence that bitcoin is amongst the best of investment avenues that are currently widely available to all people around the world... but even the fact that bitcoin is likely amongst the best of current investments, we still are NOT guaranteed that we are going to be better off to have had invested into it rather than investing into something else or just consuming our investment amount.

Once you get over the hurdle of deciding upon bitcoin and then focusing on carrying out your BTC investment/accumulation/buying plan, you won't be able to change what you did 4-10 years or longer down the road, even though you are able to change at any time along the way, if you change your mind about the plan that you create  and/or follow today.

Of course, ongoingly you will be faced with choices regarding how regular and aggressive (or whimpy) you should be in your investment and the extent to which that you might want to tweak your plan along the way.. so the level of your aggressiveness(whimpinees) and consistency in carrying out your plan can end up having pretty decently sized compounding effects down the road, whether you are looking at 4-10 years or maybe even some longer timeline in which you may well end up getting to a wealth accumulation location that you had not thought that you were going to be able to reach based on your personal circumstances and the ways of the world.  And sometimes investors can become too greedy and too aggressive in their investment approach - so there is a balance in which being too aggressive could end up working against you too, even if you might consider that being aggressive might be a good thing... there are ongoing needs not to overdo what you are doing in such a way that you end up taking way more risks than necessary.

[Hamza2424]

Things are just getting out of hands now!!!
Really that a bitter truth of the nature you cant be on peak always but its the universal rule when you came from a top to bottom and put some effort its way more higher then the last High where you was standing so hold on.. and watch as
pills needed



https://imgur.com/QF0qOD6

[HI-TEC99]

Credit Suisse says "nothing too see here" today.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11276103/Credit-Suisse-share-price-slides-amid-market-turmoil.html

Credit Suisse shares crashed to a record low on Monday after a bid by bosses to calm investors over the health of the Swiss bank backfired.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Taking this graphic (too) seriously means we still haven't bottomed out yet...  

[gallianooo]

So JJG ?

Do you need one month to make your calculation for 2 basic bets ?

Or are you just waiting we drop to have an excuse to skip the bet (that you proposed) ? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I am getting a mild tingling in my jibbity bits.

[BitcoinBunny]

Taking this graphic (too) seriously means we still haven't bottomed out yet...   

Maybe the graphic is just a few months old and we are already at the bottom of the first loop on the roller coaster track, soon bouncing upwards like Autumn Falls' bouncing tits.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Ami0]

”You know we’ve reached a unique time in history when Bitcoin suddenly is less volatile than fiat currencies. Bitcoin remained locked in an $18-20k range this week as the dollar index rallied +0.5%, the S&P 500 fell –3.1% and the British pound crashed to an all-time low”

Peter Saddington

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Taking this graphic (too) seriously means we still haven't bottomed out yet...  

Maybe the graphic is just a few months old and we are already at the bottom of the first loop on the roller coaster track, soon bouncing upwards like Autumn Falls' bouncing tits.

saved my day

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation