Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 20%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 30%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 50%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 30%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 25%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 20%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 15%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 5%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 4%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 3%

do
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%

are most possible in this case.

Yes hehe there was already below 400 in 2014 - correct

Above 500 was already done too - correct.

What are another options?
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%

It was during whole January.

Another:

g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%

And this is what I am waiting for
I bet it will happen until 1st May 2014.  Mark my words - I will check all my predictions later and we will see how many % were correct :p

I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past.  Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Is there some historic data or some poll like Rpietila's one where we can find which were the odds of Bitcoin > 1000$ in 2013 by April-May 2013??? Sure they were not >5%.

[Todorius]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

[niothor]

I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past.  Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102.

3? I only know about one .

[EuroTrash]

Boy the sharks on BFX must be having a party

[Guinpen]

g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%

And this is what I am waiting for
I bet it will happen until 1st May 2014.  Mark my words - I will check all my predictions later and we will see how many % were correct :p

Marked.

[p0peji]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Anyone want to switch up and invest in Alt Coins, Take a hard look at BlackCoin its very impressive right now Mintpal seems to be leading the charge.

Alts sure are interesting and the probability tends to lean on me buying a bunch of alts not BTC when the general downtrend is over.
I'm really hoping to see more then just forks of bitcoin. Sadly this blackcoin is still just a fork and therefor have no real advantages, just different choice of configuration.
Except the demographics maybe

NXT is interesting because it dared to take on a different road, but not interesting enough yet to buy. Ripple also took a different road but it has serious transparency issues about the entire mechanics. If NXT will hit big in the coming years, then I bet that the current NXT buyers are also presenting themselves as skilled visionaries, like those here who bought bitcoin before 2012. Luck had nothing to do with it

[TERA]

I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past.  Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102.

3?

btce bitfinex mtgox

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

NXT is interesting because it dared to take on a different road, but not interesting enough yet to buy.

Wise words. I agree so much.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

Maybe you could reduce it to 5main options, I recognise your love of being exhaustive

[Bronstad]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

Nah, there's a 45% chance it doesn't happen until Jan 1st, 2015. Not worth the risk 

[p0peji]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

Nah, there's a 45% chance it doesn't happen until Jan 1st, 2015. Not worth the risk 

Either you stand by your estimations or you admit they are complete BS.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You chose to ignore them, you bought in didnt you, what makes you any better than anyone else.

Yeah and I bet the guys saying it from $1 are kicking themselves about the wealth they could have secured for themselves.

Who knows, $340 is as good of a bottom as any.

Or do you think that this is a bull trap and were only going down to previous YTL?

These faults weren't having an effect at the time when I bought.

They are stupid if they're kicking themselves for it. It's like kicking yourself after seeing the lottery numbers and saying "only if I chose 45, 5, 6, 11, 22 and 37". During this time there was only blind hope that bitcoin will be this big. No experienced, educated and knowledgeable investors got involved, so no skill was involved in seeing potential. Most of the ones who were involved then, were just dumb kids who got lucky at random google searches and got excited because they weren't skilled enough to assess the low probability of success.

Yes, that's what I thought, "who knows". Just some time ago you tried to present yourself as an skillful trader, but when asking some certainty on your predictions then the answer will always be "who knows". Because you really don't have a clue on what will happen. You aren't able enough to make proper analysis to support any of your predictions. You just make blind bets that have a 50/50 winning chance to you.

But I'm telling you with certainty, if there aren't new strong laws made to support the financial use of bitcoin in US or EU (I haven't considered China as an option for potential for a long time already), or if there aren't new markets opened with proper volume in new geographical locations, then this WAS NOT the bottom and it will drop more then 340$.

Yes, thats what I thought, of course these faults didnt matter when you were buying just when your not.

Your laughably wrong again, a lot of the early bitcoiners were far from dumb kids who got lucky from google searching, are you seriously that retarded? The majority of the early bitcoiners were older, well educated, skilled (most in cryptography) and saw and could understand the problems with "digital cash" that Satoshi has solved. An inordinate amount of skill and knowledge was required to see Bitcoins potential early. Your showing how little knowledge you posses of the history of Bitcoin.

Who knows was an ambiguous answer to an ambiguous question. Your basically asking will we see an ATH before a dip below $340 which is a question way too broad to give a definitive answer to. We could go to $1100 I could triple my money and then go down to  below $340 and I would still be wrong if I had said yes to your question.  I know your only trying to trap me in an answer but at this point it doesnt matter.

Comical how you ask me for a definitive answer then tell me your answer but with clauses that are open to interpretation to protect your prediction. Why would I say this is definately the bottom when all the Chinese exchanges could close tommorow? I dont need to make predictions like those when I can react the the market and news accordingly. I made my proper analysis and bought in the mid $350's I sold some of those coins today at +30% in 48 hours. I can now make predicitions on the next move . If we go down again I buy more all the time making money while you sit there making nothing on your very long term ambiguous assertions. Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows what will happen for sure but in the short term your loosing and the people your berating are winning. End of.

Yes, they didn't and that was the reason why the price rose from 200 to 1163. (I didn't sell at the exact top, but at around 1030). And now they do, and that's why the price has fell ever since. But you have no clue on what I'm talking about, do you?

These educated folks that you are talking about, were not and still are not into speculating with trading. Their interest in bitcoin was and is technical.
The traders, or a new race of beings, even lower in the foodchain, The Hodlers, were and still are mostly dumb kids who are not educated and don't have any experience in investing or trading.

I'm basicly telling you that you tried to pretend that you were certain that the price will rise from 340 to this, because you are a skilled short trader. I'm now giving you a chance to make a new solid short prediction where the price will be. You didn't even have to give the right number. Just say if this was the bottom or not. Is it really this hard to you? Where are your skills or are you telling me that you acted while not knowing on what you're doing?
My first point was, that you, me or anyone else can't predict the short term outcome of the current market movements. It's a blind bet to everyone and I would apprieciete it, if you wouldn't try to act like you knew what you were doing while buying sub 400.

This is the last reply I shall grace you with.

Comical again, and these faults magically didnt matter from 2-30 or the run up to 266, only when the price is going down. You speak as though 200-1200 was the only price rise in Bitcoins history.

I was confident that $350 was a good buy in point which it has proved to be you don't need any more evidence that I was confident about that other than the fact I bought. In fact thats stronger evidence than just saying it.

Your not asking for a solid SHORT prediction, you  didnt ask me if this was the bottom or not, you asked me if that was the bottom and were going straight to all time highs, thats one of the longest term speculations you can make at the moment. If you said will we go to the bottom in the next week that is a short term prediction.

"These educated folks that you are talking about, were not and still are not into speculating with trading. Their interest in bitcoin was and is technical.
The traders, or a new race of beings, even lower in the foodchain, The Hodlers, were and still are mostly dumb kids who are not educated and don't have any experience in investing or trading."

Talk about a contradiciton. These educated folks who arent trading are by definition hodlers yet in the next sentance you call them dumb kids and the lowest in the food chain  

Stop speaking to me like I've made one prediciton and luckily got right. The last price prediciton I made was a short at around $440 and I said I would buy back at just over $400, that happened as well. I'm not acting like a pro trader who always gets it right, no one is, to make money you only have to be right >50% of the time. You havent put any money where your mouth is while just spouting we're going down.

 Why dont you throw some of your BTC profits on finex and short it then been as your so sure we're going down. Maybe that will add some weight to your argument.

200-1200 was the first rise that was fueled by expectations that bitcoin will be supported enough by the government to find it's use in legal finance. It was all about some Chinese officials getting excited that bitcoin could actually pose a threat to the dollar. Soon smarter officials joined in and explained that with supporting bitcoin, you actually support the dollar not threaten it, and then these expectations were dropped.
During this time the pumps that were activated were strong enough to drive over all the smaller bumps on the road. Right now the support is very weak and every small bump slows down the ride.

Yeah, I don't need proof that buying at 350$ was profitable, because it was. But our discussion was about if it was an blind bet or an predictable analytical decisions. Blind bets can also be profitable, but making blind bets will still be something for the degenerate gamblers. Even the degenerate gamblers win sometimes, or else they wouldn't play at all.

The educated folks with technical interest aren't mostly traders nor hodlers. Most of the more educated folks I have met, agree with me that bitcoin is far from being developed enough to be an quality currency, but they see the potential in the idea and they have interest in making this potential true. They aren't buying up coins for speculative purposes nor mining and hoarding. To those people, the sensless arms race in mining and the sensless hoarding is hurting the general development more then helping it.

I should stop talking that you only made one lucky prediction, but I should instead talk on how you made TWO lucky predictions? :-O
Now, this certainly changes everything...

[podyx]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

Nah, there's a 45% chance it doesn't happen until Jan 1st, 2015. Not worth the risk 

Either you stand by your estimations or you admit they are complete BS.

First off, he has a 10% edge, not 5%

5/50=0.1=10%. why do people have such a hard time understanding this?
second, it feels much worse to lose money then it feels good winning money

[bitgeek]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

[niothor]

I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past.  Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102.

3?

btce bitfinex mtgox

I didn't know mtgox was still an exchanger when that happened )))
So , you're long and you keep up with those posts ?

[EuroTrash]

For the moment it looks to me like we bounced against arepo's descending trendline.

[Bronstad]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

Nah, there's a 45% chance it doesn't happen until Jan 1st, 2015. Not worth the risk 

Either you stand by your estimations or you admit they are complete BS.

Dude, calm down. There are plenty of people responding to this mini-poll, go bug them. I have no insider knowledge, so like everyone else my estimates are "BS".