Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

The only reason USD give bitcoin value is because people are not smart enough to just use BTC for payments and because we're working bottom up on the transfer of funds from consumers to suppliers.  had it been the other way around and suppliers were already on board and using BTC to fund their projects then bitcoin would give USD, CNY, RMB their value...

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

You my friend are fucking clueless...

[roslinpl]

Explanation

460

520 tomorrow morning with no problem

for now it is rising 10$ in ~3-4 hours.

[mmitech]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...

[dreamspark]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  )

+1 thats quiet an achievment.

In other news blackcoin just made me 20BTC in the last day or two. Should be able to feed the kids for a short while

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

How 'bout a 2 year average?  That would give quite the different picture   .
Honestly though, it would be more fair to look at monetary inflation (in which bitcoin is still quite inflationary at present, admittedly).

[oda.krell]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...

I'm sure they are, I suspect the Bitstamp account brings in quite a nice bit of revenue and fees.

But that's not the point, right? We were assigning probabilities to events, pulled out of our asses, but motivated by our experience and expectations. And my experience and expectation is that the banking interface is a fragile one, that could break. Not likely, so I personally don't see more than a, say, 5% chance that it happens, but "sub 1%" is another way of saying it's nigh impossible, and that I disagree with.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The only reason USD give bitcoin value is because people are not smart enough to just use BTC for payments and because we're working bottom up on the transfer of funds from consumers to suppliers.  had it been the other way around and suppliers were already on board and using BTC to fund their projects then bitcoin would give USD, CNY, RMB their value...

The main reason why USD is giving value to bitcoin is that bitcoin is lacking the main quality that is needed with a proper currency. That is PRICE STABILITY.

Without price stability, bitcoin is no currency but just a gimmick to handle fiat transactions. You can't run a company with making your calculations based on a currency thats value can change 350% over a couple of months, like Jorge brought forward couple of posts ago.
But I bet that you actually haven't ever ran your own business, so it's very hard to understand it. it's easier to just call people "not smart enough" for not wanting to make foolish business decisions.

This is the reason why I often think that bitcoiners are the scum of the earth, who are in par with Bolsheviks who also constantly "knew better" then those who had education and experience.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Rampion]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

There's definitely a good chance of that happening, as Bitstamp is operating with a corporate account - exactly the same type of account that you would have to receive payments for selling goods or services, the type of account in which you can commingle funds because they are legally yours as soon as you get them - but as Bitstamp is not selling goods or services but acting as a financial intermediary you can see clearly how they are non-compliant with EU regulation regarding PSP (payment services providers) and other financial intermediaries. They either need to have a banking license (lengthy and extremely expensive process) or to operate under the banking license of a banking partner (not easy because the bank would have full responsibility on customer funds - Fidor is doing that for Bitcoin.de as you can see on Bitcoin.de's disclaimer, while Unicredit is definitely NOT doing that for Bitstamp).

All in all, what davout (founder of Bitcoin Central) is saying HERE is definitely right, I can guarantee you that as I've made my own thorough due diligence with regulators in more than one EU country. Truth is Bitcoin Central is *mostly* compliant, as they are using a banking partner that opens one separate bank account for each one of their customers - that's the way to go, otherways as soon as regulators needs to fine you, or to freeze a certain amount of money because of suspicious activity, they will have to freeze all customers funds as they sit on a single bank account that is legally property of the exchange and not of the customers themselves.

Bitstamp either becomes compliant or it gets sold to a big fish that will make it compliant or it will be shut down eventually. Probably they have made enough millions to become a bank, but saying that there is less than 1% chance for them to be shut down is simply delusional.

[mmitech]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...

I'm sure they are, I suspect the Bitstamp account brings in quite a nice bit of revenue and fees.

But that's not the point, right? We were assigning probabilities to events, pulled out of our asses, but motivated by our experience and expectations. And my experience and expectation is that the banking interface is a fragile one, that could break. Not likely, so I personally don't see more than a, say, 5% chance that it happens, but "sub 1%" is another way of saying it's nigh impossible, and that I disagree with.

I agree, I was just pointing out that Banks are aware of Bitcoin, and when we say Banks we are not talking about computers and buildings but about people and employees running/working in these banks.


yet, I share the fear with many of you, if something somehow happen to an exchange's Banking account, basically only people who have funds there are fucked, but if anything happens to the bank (just look to the new EU Bank bailing road-map) than not only Exchanges are fucked but pretty much everyone living in EU and the ones who didn't even hear about Bitcoin will be the most effected.

if I summarize the situation, what is happening in the world right now doesn't look so promising, and having fiat sitting in your bank account is not safer than having Bitcoin sitting in your wallet, even when considering a scenario when an exchange like Bitstamp gets fucked up by its bank, the consequences will be temporary comparing with what could go wrong if something similar happens with the EU banking system.

[FNG]

CCMF   

[Hen0xyd]

CCMF   

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby

[Adrian-x]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

Bitcoin is the only inflation rate I believe, and skeptics call it deflation.

[Davyd05]

CCMF  

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby

seems the action is builiding and trying again to break today's resistance point

[Rampion]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...

I'm sure they are, I suspect the Bitstamp account brings in quite a nice bit of revenue and fees.

But that's not the point, right? We were assigning probabilities to events, pulled out of our asses, but motivated by our experience and expectations. And my experience and expectation is that the banking interface is a fragile one, that could break. Not likely, so I personally don't see more than a, say, 5% chance that it happens, but "sub 1%" is another way of saying it's nigh impossible, and that I disagree with.

I agree, I was just pointing out that Banks are aware of Bitcoin, and when we say Banks we are not talking about computers and buildings but about people and employees running/working in these banks.


yet, I share the fear with many of you, if something somehow happen to an exchange's Banking account, basically only people who have funds there are fucked, but if anything happens to the bank (just look to the new EU Bank bailing road-map) than not only Exchanges are fucked but pretty much everyone living in EU and the ones who didn't even hear about Bitcoin will be the most effected.

if I summarize the situation, what is happening in the world right now doesn't look so promising, and having fiat sitting in your bank account is not safer than having Bitcoin sitting in your wallet, even when considering a scenario when an exchange like Bitstamp gets fucked up by its bank, the consequences will be temporary comparing with what could go wrong if something similar happens with the EU banking system.

The fact is that an exchange commingling all their customers funds in one single bank account is simply non-compliant, and even illegal in most of the EU.

Just check how brokers work: you need to open a bank account UNDER YOUR NAME on a certain bank, and give the broker an authorization to operate with your account for this or that purpose - but customers funds are never commingled, each customer has his own separate bank account.

Bitcoin exchanges (apart from B-C afaik) do not operate that way (not even Kraken), exposing customers to a huge risk. It just takes one rotten seed (eg, a drug dealer) operating in exchange X and the only option LE has is to freeze the full account - that's why you cannot take customers deposits* in the EU if you are not a bank.

*deposit = holding funds on behalf of a third party - those funds are NOT legally yours, you are just holding them on behalf of your customer - that's what banks and only banks do.

[FNG]

CCMF   

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby

 

Break 3k will bring us to 3300 in a hurry imo 

[p0peji]

CCMF  

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby

seems the action is builiding and trying again to break today's resistance point

This is one nasty pump.

[Davyd05]

CCMF  

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby

seems the action is builiding and trying again to break today's resistance point

This is one nasty pump.

doubt its a pump, well I just feel the market is easing back in as they digest bitcoin isn't getting a surprise overnight ban in China...these people probably want to beat a race for coins when the psychological deadlines are passed.

We'll see though if they can break the resistance points and shoot to 500, they can retrace a bit and ramp up some continue pressure.

[s11made]

Have a look at the BTC price in the timeframe between mid december and end January .  Now compare that to the "big picture" chart.
Not that I am trading expert - far from it - but for me personally this makes sense.

This is how I see it, without taking into account any specific news but only the chart and the price (what naturally reflects people global reactions to the news)


My guess: Rise to about 600-700$.
Then after that there are 2 ways out. Either we break 720$ mark and it goes up further. Or we miss it and we will quickly fall below 300$ again.