Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Adrian-x]

I wouldn't get too cocky if I were you guys...
I've just finished watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2thGzzNSs and I realized that their government could easily initiate a 51% attack  
Once bitcoin start hurting their economy, I wouldn't be surprised if they do something like that.
So basically, right now, they are like a cat playing with a cockroach..  
I conclude that bitcoin still has a few more years left to live... unless you piss this cat reaally hard  

A 51% attack just became a costly waste of time the idea president here renders it useless.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0

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[JayJuanGee]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 0%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = Undecided, sir.
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 100%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 100%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 100%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 1%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 1%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 1%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 1%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Your projections are very black and white.. Almost nothing is 100% or 0% unless it is already happening or no way in hell that it is going to happen.  Maybe you stopped rounding below 1%.. but still... 0%?

Some people confused 100% b/c they were literally reading the past into their future projections.  You seem to NOT have made that particular mistake in your projection b/c you put item d) as undecided "sir" 

[JayJuanGee]

Reading about the idiots who regularly loose money , in the previews posts -- there's no wonder . I just realize how simply you can go down , just seeing one exchange tricks . Yes , indeed we are some idiots here who loose money , and others , maybe connected with the exchanges , are laughing at us ! Very impressive business ....for them !   

I'm pretty sure it won't be a loss to put you on ignore right now. Buh bye.

Yeah..... he he he.. nip the situation in the bud.   

[JorgeStolfi]

Why do you waste your time in the speculation forum then? There are other threads where the research is made:

Well, here I learn about many things that get posted to many other forums; but the converse is not true.   

And about bets, you know Pascal's Bet for sure.  What is the probability that handling bitcoin will get one's soul sent to Hell for eternity?  Since that is either true or false, and we have no information, we must assume it is 50%.... 

[rpietila]

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.

Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.

And I am quite sure I know the reason for that. It is the extreme information asymmetry between Bitcoin owners and non-owners. (To simplify,) Bitcoin owners know that bitcoins are very valuable, and they buy and hold as much as they can. But as a result of their price going up, it forces people to sell, not because they don't trust Bitcoin, or expect the EV to be anything less than $100k or whatever in a few years, but because their entire net worth consists of bitcoins and it is rational to diversify (cf. Kelly betting). Even if the price goes down, these true believers cannot buy much more because the same optimal allocation strategy holds true.

The ones who don't own bitcoins, don't know it is good They are converting to bitcoiners at an exponential rate, though (see my previous post, and this thread for the ownership distribution). This increasing adoption gives the steam to the rise of price, in a self-sustaining virtuous cycle.

First only very few people knew about Bitcoin, and they were technologically astute and early adopter type. Many could start using Bitcoin immediately upon hearing. In the second phase more people heard, but they were, on average, slower. In the third phase or so, in which I belong, I heard and it took me 12 months to buy. In the next one, people who heard in 2011, propelled the boom in 2013 because their average decision making time was even longer. In the whole of 2013, especially the time around the peaks, 100s of millions of people heard about Bitcoin. On average, these people are even slower than previous ones, perhaps taking on average 24 months to enter (and also a smaller percentage of them enters). But they are so many! There is nothing you can really do to prevent the fraction of these people adopting Bitcoin, and by doing it, their action increases the price again by a decade, letting the rest of the planet to hear about it and putting hundreds of millions of people in the pipeline.

Bitcoiners know it, the rest don't. The price does not go to $1 million in an instant because only the ones who realize the above thing, can push the price up, but it will nevertheless go there eventually, because the above thing is a self-sustaining loop. Therefore buying bitcoins when you read and realize it, is the most lopsided bet you can ever make. You can actually pay $460 for something whose EV (expected value = average payback of all scenarios weighted by their probabilities) is in between $100k and $1M+. ONLY the fact that people realize this one at a time, slowly but exponentially, keeps the bitcoin price "at check", growing at an average of 1000% per year, for 5+ years now.

My wealth is dependent on the above being true. Nobody has explained to me, why it is not so. The stage is yours!

[wachtwoord]

Dreamspark: 

How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"

Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices.    Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution.  Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.

If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg.  And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.

What made you arrive at 3k BTC (at today's exchange rate $1.38M, or 1M Euro) as the cut-off point for living off passive income?

[JayJuanGee]

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. 

Congratulations... YOU are like one of the first bears (who has been accused of being a troll) to fully cooperate in such a specific guestimation of the future - which questions were framed by someone else (a bull).

And, yes, your projections seem fairly highly bearish but also seem to trend towards a feeling that you are projecting that we are going to linger in the current price range while slowly bleeding downward.. 

[akujin]

I wouldn't get too cocky if I were you guys...
I've just finished watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2thGzzNSs and I realized that their government could easily initiate a 51% attack  
Once bitcoin start hurting their economy, I wouldn't be surprised if they do something like that.
So basically, right now, they are like a cat playing with a cockroach..  
I conclude that bitcoin still has a few more years left to live... unless you piss this cat reaally hard  

A 51% attack just became a costly waste of time the idea president here renders it useless.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0

I'm too lazy to read everything written there.. LOL  

[JayJuanGee]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol   )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

GOOD EYE!!!!! 

Sometimes I write "and/or," when making these kinds of statements, and this time, I just wrote "or."  I think and/or would have been better  - b/c I am NOT really sure if an "and" by itself would be accurate, either.

Thanks for providing opportunity for me to further clarify that point.

[niothor]

I wouldn't get too cocky if I were you guys...
I've just finished watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2thGzzNSs and I realized that their government could easily initiate a 51% attack  
Once bitcoin start hurting their economy, I wouldn't be surprised if they do something like that.
So basically, right now, they are like a cat playing with a cockroach..  
I conclude that bitcoin still has a few more years left to live... unless you piss this cat reaally hard  

A 51% attack just became a costly waste of time the idea president here renders it useless.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0

I'm too lazy to read everything written there.. LOL  

Do it! It's good for your health.

[roslinpl]

I just saw a little drop... about -$10 but still - as for this hour it looks very promising.




it is 21:58 my Local time and I am pretty sure in 12h I will check a charts and we will all see $500

Ahh

A spring for cryptocurrencies

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Ivanhoe]

China trying to go higher.

[JayJuanGee]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:

Euro Area (Euro) 1%
USA (Dollar) 1.6 %
China (Yuan) 2%
Brazil (Real) 6.5%
Argentina (Peso) 11%
Venezuela (Bolívar) 54%
Bitcoinland (Bitcoin) 350%
 

O.k.  You are very selective with the period of time that you selected. 

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014.  You should reach the opposite conclusion that Bitcoin actually deflationary rather than inflationary.. which is likely going to continue into the long term future.. so long as bitcoin survives... and really may NOT be too fair to pick any currency, such as bitcoin over its adoption phase to be reflective of long term stability.  The adoption phase number (in which we currently are in) are going to be quite a bit skewed in the deflationary direction - much more than later.

He's a bear , a real thought to be extinct cavebear

Yeah, but even a bear should have enough integrity to project with a little less obvious spin, and to put matters like this in context?  These kinds of posts tend to show someone is being disingenuous  b/c we certainly know from his various posts that he is intellectually capable of providing context and understanding sophisticated subtleties.

[Davyd05]

2950 huobi.. and stamp was still short covering lol

[JorgeStolfi]

That's no bear mask, that's a full on troll-mask. Just completely giving up on the "researching" schtick I see.

Why a troll? I am very skeptical that Bitcoin will succeed, I already explained why I think so.

To see where my "bearish" probabilities came from, look at the weekly price chart on any exchange, pretend that you are a bear looking at the market price of square blue tomatoes, and say how likely you think it is that a square blue tomato will sell for 1250$ sometime this year (which is already 1/4 over).

[JayJuanGee]

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. 

I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!

I propose geometric mean, such that:
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
=> sqrt(0.01*0.7) = 8.4%.

You pay 1 / 8.4% = 11.952 units if you lose
He pays 1 / 91.6% = 1.092 units if you win.

Normalized, this is 10.948 : 1.

Both people in the wager have about 8 times better odds than they estimated as current, wonder why there is so little of this!  

Jorge is NOT going to bet b/c he is really NOT committed to his numbers.

There are a few other posters here who are also NOT committed to their numbers.

I would make small bets on my projections especially if the spread is comfortable for me, and certainly it is easier to bet when you know someone else's projections in order to figure out the spread.

[JayJuanGee]

Based on this data we could give a 1589$ equity, which is not surprising since most people on a bitcoin forum are at least long-term bulls. Also it's above the ATH.

That's about where I expect the capitulation to go after the next bubble deflates.

And, when is that next bubble coming... within the next 6 months?

[billyjoeallen]

This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.

and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods

There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%.  Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it. 

Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".

We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market

Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy

There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me

$450 should be a steal, but it's not. The investing public is fickle. Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. There is no certainty, but investing based on "feelings" usually doesn't pay as well and investing based on asymmetric information (insider trading). If you have a well diversified portfolio of more than $100,000 dollars, now would be a good time to buy a little, but obviously not as good of a time as two days ago @ $340. The risk is that you might have to wait a long time for your bet to pay off.. How long can you afford to wait?

I think Big Money is buying bitcoin right now, but they are buying off exchange and they are buying below market from miners. Those coins are just as likely to get dumped on the exchange for a guaranteed profit as they are to be held if some new disaster strikes. Buying right now may be a good long term investment, but it's an extremely risky short term speculation.  What if the Overstock stockholders pressure the CEO to stop accepting bitcoin or something similar happens?

John Maynard Keynes was a flawed economist in my opinion, but he was one of the very few to actually make a fortune in the markets. He said "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Many people have been force liquidated already and it's quite possible many more will be in the future. Bitcoin is a fantastic asset, but it is not worth risking insolvency over. We need financially healthy enthusiasts to form the base for the next rally, not bug-eyed gamblers. 

I want bitcoin to go strait up from here, but I've been in this game for over three years and my experience tells my it's unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. TERA is an excellent trader who makes money in bull and bear markets. She understands order flows better than I do. When she says she thinks this probably isn't a final bottom, I believe her.

I used to play poker and I discovered that it's quite possible to make money in a game even if you know you aren't the best player. You just have to know who that player is and you have to stay out of his way. The one thing I know for sure in this market is that I'm not the best player. I may not even be a good player. I've learned a lot, but perhaps the most important thing I've learned is how little I know.

Being ignorant isn't dangerous. What is dangerous is being ignorant and unaware of your ignorance. People are likely going to be insolvent before this is over. Intellectually I know that it's ultimately a good thing and has to happen, but I'm not quite calloused enough to enjoy it. Maybe that's why I gave up poker.

[JayJuanGee]

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

There is NO such thing as bear-masked or bull-masked... except to say best case scenarios and worst case scenarios.  If you are unsure, then just put the projection in a range..... 


Then to formulate any kind of bet, then that could be hammered out by understanding each of the party's assessment(s) of the situation