Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[joburgtaxi]

Anyone want to speculate on the effects to Bitcoin when this happens ?

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/apr/14/facebook-e-money-transfer-service-europe

[chessnut]

Will do. Thanks.

Get to learn the hard way that trading is not for me.

there is only one way to learn how to trade. the hard way.

also, I think for an asset that has grown 8000% in a year, we should never be surprised when it halves! hold on tight!

[TERA]

So whats the official trendline break target? I thought it was around ~$480-$490?

Linear $515.

Logarithmic $580.

[dreamspark]

So whats the official trendline break target? I thought it was around ~$480-$490?

Linear $515.

Logarithmic $580.

Thanks, today could be the day...

[RoadTrain]

It's training men, hallelujah!

[podyx]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

[dreamspark]

WTF BTC-e to 554!!!

[rudius]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

haha Bears starting to feel the pain

[podyx]

Why isn't huobi biting?

[Cassius]

Anyone want to speculate on the effects to Bitcoin when this happens ?

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/apr/14/facebook-e-money-transfer-service-europe

We knew this was coming. Others will too (Google...?).
Not sure what I think. Bitcoin has a good headstart in terms of regulation, but Facebook has the bigger network and the clout to catch up fast.
Possibility of an integrated service or users combining them in some way?
Facebook is also centralised, which bitcoin is not.
Not an existential threat, anyway.

[jonoiv]

I don't have any clue wtf to do now.

I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."

I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"

I put almost my entire savings at 480

Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.

So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?

You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking. 

You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments.

Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again.  I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees.  Sure I am still in the red, and  I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this.

I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you.

To the OP.  I have never agreed with JayJuanGee on any major point.  But he is correct here.

The most important lesson is patience.   Patience lessons are expensive ones, but they're lessons you rarely forget.   I have sold at the bottom in the past,  I make mostly successful trades but have also made some serious errors.  

[Dalmar]

WTF BTC-e to 554!!!

bots have gone insane. 

[jonoiv]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

yer WTF?

[criptix]

i gonna miss all the china fud and bearish sentiments  

but maybe this is just a big trap, we will see  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[podyx]

bear-e showing the way!

[RoadTrain]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

yer WTF?

Short squeeze most likely.

[podyx]

I get the same feeling I had when we passed $100 last year and just kept going after being down to $70

[rpietila]

Right now these markets are like 98% day traders just following each other around in circles. There is no fresh fiat coming in anywhere (and by "no" I mean no substantial bull market fiat).

evidence please. prove there is no fresh fiat. order books are growing every day.

windjc and others haven't probably considered the effect that Gox and other exchanges' fall has had on the market landscape:

- It has made people wary on sending fiat to exchange, yes (this is the visible effect).
- But it has also made them search for and use the alternatives (this is the invisible effect).

Lots of trade is happening in services like Bittiraha.fi, who make markets locally (and local = Europe in this case). Judging the volume from exchange data is hilarious. Equally hilarious is the day when the positive balance of the local market-making hits the exchanges. That demand is in the form of market orders.

I for one think that the exchanges are a drag on Bitcoin's longer-term health (and have been on this line since $50). Consequently, I think that the development that people don't trust the exchanges any more is good.

Why I try to exhort people buy now is that you deserve it (after so much pain and misinformation)! Reading this thread only and following the prevalent mood would have made you buy at $1000 and sell at $400, but the reverse is how you make money.

Thanks Risto.
so while fresh fiat may not be entering, do you think there may be a surprise shortage of bitcoins to satisfy margin calls? (due to accumulation off exchanges - the invisible effect)

Fresh fiat is entering all the time, I see it in the grassroots level. But less and less of it is going through the exchanges, even I don't solicit them any more, and I try to make my personal purchases off them. The exchange price IS the market price, but market price is manipulated, and it is even more easier to do now, as honest people don't trust their money to the exchanges any more (less bitcoins for same effect).

This causes volatility, and we already went relatively lower than in any point during summer-2013. But it works both ways - also the surprises to the upside can, may and will happen as a result of the tail-wags-dog dynamic that we have.

It is so easy if you just play with the money that you can lose, disconnect emotion, hold, sell high and buy low.

[TERA]

i gonna miss all the china fud and bearish sentiments  

but maybe this is just a big trap, we will see  

You can probably count on unexpected chinese news to continue happening. It will always be a feature of the market as long as China remains.