Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rjp55]

Lol and Huobi is pulling some more fake trades out of their ass to prevent a slaughter.

Says the guy who shorted and is desperately watching for the price to drop.

[ShroomsKit]

So you've come out of your own thread to do some manipulating here.
The sad part is some noobs here will actually fall for it. They don't realize what a mentally ill narcissistic manipulating troll you are.
For the new guys here any advice this looney offers is for his own gains. I can guarantee you that.

You really think a single thread on a bitcoin forum can manipulate the global bitcoin price? LMAO.

Huh? No of course not. Are you stupid?

[rudius]

Lol and Huobi is pulling some more fake trades out of their ass to prevent a slaughter.

they are more likely absorbing the supply before breaking the wedge for good. They look really hungry.

Another round for a short squeeze. That will be entertaining.

[EuroTrash]

What happens when the triangle on Huobi closes? Fireworks?

[edwardspitz]

You can rest assured there will be brand new chinese bear ammo when it comes time to cross back into the bear zone.

Those who think that because they made it to April 15th so now they are off scot free are in for a mean suprise.

China has really proved to be very convenient for insiders who want to influence or explain price movement through the news/rumors. At least that is what I think. For amateurs like myself it is hard to distinguish fact from fiction, and this is why China is so convenient. I also think we are in for more surprises from China. I honestly don't know if the Chinese exchanges deserve their current reputation, but the Chinese rumors gets me every time

It has been nice to see whale buys lately... I trust/hope they know what they are doing  

[aminorex]

For amateurs like myself it is hard to distinguish fact from fiction, and this is why China is so convenient.

Proudhon's confirmation system is truly a work of art.

[seleme]

Seriously, one just needs to kick emotions out of his trading, trade only Fibonacci retracements and he could make a killing with Bitcoin.

I'll let you know when I manage to do that.

[freebit13]

Why is NMC up? meowbit.com... my pleasure

[seleme]

Why is NMC up? meowbit.com... my pleasure

Because Bitcoin exploded and it followed it. My pleasure too.

[jonoiv]

Why is NMC up? meowbit.com... my pleasure

Because Bitcoin exploded and it followed it. My pleasure too.

 

[billyjoeallen]

You can't have winners without losers...

Only true in a zero-sum game.  More generally, you can't have competition without relative losers.

Correct. My money is still sitting in my trading account, so I am only a relative loser. Considering my initial buy-in price I am still doing rather well. Trading is not a zero sum game. Both parties feel they are better off or the trade would not take place.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[blatchcorn]

The bulls have won

[billyjoeallen]

I wonder why all the alts except LTC  (LTC/BTC) are rallying?

Because the $400 BTC pumpers have already pulled money out with a profit and are now pumping alts.  They will switch to litecoin as soon as they bank a profit where they are at. People are chasing them around in circles.

[BBmodBB]

BTC = winning! BitPay team is legit and has done the most for all of us here!!! ;-) imho

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The price will go down, because this spike wasn't caused by new money entering the system, but by moving around of some money that was already in the system. And it's not a lot that's in, so it was only a matter of time when the rise gets exhausted and starts to fall back. I think that we will see some low volume aftershock waves today, and maybe even tomorrow, but it won't be long when the price drops back to sub 400. As long as there isn't new money coming in, then it's a bad call to just sit on BTC. Only thing to hope for is that the drop will be fast and not slow and ugly, like it has been for the past months.

What's this concern with the money entering the system being "new"?  It's as if you think all of the people who cashed out during the double ATH withdrew to their fiat accounts and have washed their hands of Bitcoin.  There is a lot of money on the sidelines.

By the sounds of it, my advice to you would be to sell all of your coins and never come back.  Surely it's the end of Bitcoin since no new money is coming in and it's going to be a slow grind downwards.  The peanuts you'll earn trading isn't worth the risk of losing your capital.  Just leave now and keep your money safe.

Well, there are several factors to be considered here.
First we have to look at the constant stable supply. In the last 24 hours, 188 blocks were mined with 1 block bringing 25 new BTC into existance. Now we get that 188 * 25 = 4700 new BTC came out that need to be bought or held. With the current prices, most of it will be held not sold, because you wouldn't get any ROI and it has been like that for several months. Now you have to consider that this isn't being held forever and miners are already cutting their losses with selling during spikes like these. This all means that new fiat has to come in to buy those coins, or else the price starts to drop because rising supply without rising of demand will cause the price of the product to lower.

The second thing we have to consider here is that experienced investors don't think like the Hodlers here. They don't think that they would rather go down with the ship then to sell their coins, because they have no emotional attachment to bitcoin itself. When an experienced investor, holding a large amount of coins, can't see any reason for the demand to rise, then he will at least start gradually selling his coins to create a safety net if the entire project will fail. Most of the people don't see bitcoin as the holy currency of the future, but they just see it as an temporal phenomenon and a quick gamble. So, the chance that bitcoin will go to 0 isn't as impossible to them as it is to you. So, this means that they are gradually selling their stash and they would only buy back if there is a real reason to support the rising value of bitcoin. These guys don't buy because everyone else seems to be buying, this is an unpredictable bubble that can pop any second and if you are playing with a large amount, then it's hard to move fast enough with proper profits. The richer you are, the slower you have to be.

Third we have to consider that those Chinese who had legal intentions with BTC, and who caused the previous ATH, have in all probability already sold all of their coins. There is no longer any legal investment potential for BTC in China.

So we get the outcome that there are several factors that are causing the increase in supply and if there is the no rise in demand, and instead the drop in demand out of the loss of important markets and from the loss of trust that was caused by the gox fiasco.
We have seen these attempts to make the price rise with the money that was already inside the market system and we have seen the outcome of it. The rise will get exhausted very soon and will continue the drop. And the reason is very simple: more coins are coming to the market that are being bought.
You guys love all kinds of conspiracy theories about the banksters scheming to drive the price down etc. while the real answer is simple. I think that a lot of people are looking for conspiracy theories here because most of their connection with finance, has been youtube videos about financial conspiracies, and they have very little real experience with finance or trading

[jonoiv]

The bulls have won

In a game that never has a final whistle....   

[lemonte]

The price will go down, because this spike wasn't caused by new money entering the system, but by moving around of some money that was already in the system. And it's not a lot that's in, so it was only a matter of time when the rise gets exhausted and starts to fall back. I think that we will see some low volume aftershock waves today, and maybe even tomorrow, but it won't be long when the price drops back to sub 400. As long as there isn't new money coming in, then it's a bad call to just sit on BTC. Only thing to hope for is that the drop will be fast and not slow and ugly, like it has been for the past months.

What's this concern with the money entering the system being "new"?  It's as if you think all of the people who cashed out during the double ATH withdrew to their fiat accounts and have washed their hands of Bitcoin.  There is a lot of money on the sidelines.

By the sounds of it, my advice to you would be to sell all of your coins and never come back.  Surely it's the end of Bitcoin since no new money is coming in and it's going to be a slow grind downwards.  The peanuts you'll earn trading isn't worth the risk of losing your capital.  Just leave now and keep your money safe.

First we have to look at the constant stable supply. In the last 24 hours, 188 blocks were mined with 1 block bringing 25 new BTC into existance. Now we get that 188 * 25 = 4700 new BTC came out that need to be bought or held. With the current prices, most of it will be held not sold, because you wouldn't get any ROI and it has been like that for several months.

Beg to differ here, look at KNC, they have a large share of the network now and said in an interview that they sell all of their coins on a daily basis.

Also, we are on the cusp of a lot of the 1st generation units from big boys becoming unprofitable, before the 2nd generation comes online in a few months. Most will have already returned on their investment, I know I did a long time ago.

I also dispute your "no money entering the system" point. I sell a portion of my mined coins every week, to pay bills and to live off (to a degree) I don't bother with exchanges for these types of transactions and use Local Bitcoins etc. When the bubble was in full swing I was regularly selling to the same people over and over again, but since January, and more and more in recent weeks I have been buying to people who have not bought before. I know that Local Bitcoins is not an exchange, but it suggests to me that the average Joe is not sick and tired of hearing about BTC, and new people are buying.

[Davyd05]

CCMF  

I guess that's for the 2900cny break on Huoby

seems the action is builiding and trying again to break today's resistance point

This is one nasty pump.

doubt its a pump, well I just feel the market is easing back in as they digest bitcoin isn't getting a surprise overnight ban in China...these people probably want to beat a race for coins when the psychological deadlines are passed.

We'll see though if they can break the resistance points and shoot to 500, they can retrace a bit and ramp up some continue pressure.

and my
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%  (Where I imagine us around Apr 20th and probably leaving this range as we enter may)

China is the thing everyone is waiting for to sell on, but I think something new is required for us to retrace past 400 at this point. If people haven't wised up to China insider tactics then they're lost causes IMO.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The price will go down, because this spike wasn't caused by new money entering the system, but by moving around of some money that was already in the system. And it's not a lot that's in, so it was only a matter of time when the rise gets exhausted and starts to fall back. I think that we will see some low volume aftershock waves today, and maybe even tomorrow, but it won't be long when the price drops back to sub 400. As long as there isn't new money coming in, then it's a bad call to just sit on BTC. Only thing to hope for is that the drop will be fast and not slow and ugly, like it has been for the past months.

What's this concern with the money entering the system being "new"?  It's as if you think all of the people who cashed out during the double ATH withdrew to their fiat accounts and have washed their hands of Bitcoin.  There is a lot of money on the sidelines.

By the sounds of it, my advice to you would be to sell all of your coins and never come back.  Surely it's the end of Bitcoin since no new money is coming in and it's going to be a slow grind downwards.  The peanuts you'll earn trading isn't worth the risk of losing your capital.  Just leave now and keep your money safe.

First we have to look at the constant stable supply. In the last 24 hours, 188 blocks were mined with 1 block bringing 25 new BTC into existance. Now we get that 188 * 25 = 4700 new BTC came out that need to be bought or held. With the current prices, most of it will be held not sold, because you wouldn't get any ROI and it has been like that for several months.

Beg to differ here, look at KNC, they have a large share of the network now and said in an interview that they sell all of their coins on a daily basis.

Also, we are on the cusp of a lot of the 1st generation units from big boys becoming unprofitable, before the 2nd generation comes online in a few months. Most will have already returned on their investment, I know I did a long time ago.

Well, it's a smart choice to sell your incoming coins on a daily basis when the market is in a slow downwards motion
If you got your miner before December then you have probably already made profit. But those who got their miners after December are in a loss. And we can see how much miners entered the network in January and after: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
Most of the coins that have been mined from this period are mostly piling up to wait for better times. But this pile will gradually start to brake apart with one miner at a time.