Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Raystonn]

It's not 2011 anymore where the price could be held up by youngesters and eager gamblers

You just wait for the derivatives markets.  If you think it was easy to swing the market last year, imagine the ability to go long on 10 BTCs of value when you only hold 0.1 to 1 BTC of margin in your account.  This is coming soon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[edwardspitz]

you guys are so full of shit..

..for a moment I forgot this is the trollbox

Agreed, I don't believe anything these jokers here say.  Nothing but verbal diarrhea in order to justify past decisions or else attempt to manipulate others for future gains.

Don't forget the ever important post count and activity increase...

Prepare for amazing analysis: You will get a lot more manipulation from people with few coins compared people with many coins. Newbies with a few coins have a lot more at stake and will therefore do anything to manipulate the market any way they can. It is the same with forum activity and post count. Members with lots of post will always speak their honest opinion. Think about it: They have been in the game for a long time and many of them only trade to pass the time (not to make $). Giving sound advice on these boards is basically one of their philanthropies.  

On a related note: Do not put trolls on "ignore". If you do you will miss out on great entertainment, says newbe :-)

[freebit13]

Prepare for amazing analysis: You will get a lot more manipulation from people with few coins compared people with many coins. Newbies with a few coins have a lot more at stake and will therefore do anything to manipulate the market any way they can. It is the same with forum activity and post count. Members with lots of post will always speak their honest opinion. Think about it: They have been in the game for a long time and many of them only trade to pass the time (not to make $). Giving sound advice on these boards is basically one of their philanthropies.  

On a related note: Do not put trolls on "ignore". If you do you will miss out on great entertainment, says newbe :-)

Not everyone who has a lot of posts has been around for a long time, there are accounts here who've been around for a couple of months and are Sr. Members already... it's quality that counts, not quantity. Most people just look left and check activity level and never look at the date of the account or the quality of old posts... just saying 

[rpietila]

Try to grasp that, dude.

Everything that you say can, from investor standpoint, be quantified. They are very real things, and they carry a certain probability, and have a certain effect. Bitcoin has suffered quite a lot during its existence, and the outcome is 100,000 times value increase since the end of 2009. It has not been easy during this time, and the growth has happened nevertheless. Assuming that with overwhelming (>>99%) probability Bitcoin is destroyed in an instant with no trace of recoverable value left, still does not make it a -EV proposition for the following 5 years!!   (if the positive case is that it replaces fiat)

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least). Because I think it is almost inevitable, just like all the other new technologies that just were better than the previous way of doing things.

[JorgeStolfi]

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December. 

Please check my maths 0 x 2 = 0

Correct. 

Jorge I see a few who have lost a lot shoring on the bad news, had they followed the accepted Bitcoin investment strategy they could profit.

Bitcoin investment advice.
Don't invest more than you are willing to lose.
Buy low sell high
and learn to hodl.  
Sell a little in every bubble.

The outcome from the strategy above is if Bitcoin fails tomorrow or in 20 years you lost nothing of value.
If it is successful you can reap a reward, how well you hold represent orders of magnitude in return.

I amost agree with the first item, only I would say:  don't think of bitcoin as a chance to get rich, or as a way to keep your savings safe. Think of it  as gambling on a game with unknown and unknowable odds. 

The other items are gambling strategy; I have nothing to say on that.

Bitcoin is a revolution not a ponzi, [ ... ] Bitcoin remains a binary invention.

I will put my reply in small font in the hope that the jorge-bashers will miss it: Bitcoin will not be a ponzi if, and only if, it succeeds -- and in that case it may be someting even worse than a ponzi.  But I remain skeptical about its chances of success.  I don't know what you mean by "binary", but I perceive that most bitcoiners see the issue as all or nothing: either the bitcoin protocol AND the bitcoin mining network AND the Satoshi blockchain become the dominant cryptocurrency in use on the internet, or the cryptocurrency idea will be dead and the world will forever be condemned to use government-printed cash and bank-issued payment instruments.  Perhaps for being a latecomer, I do not see why these two are the only possible outcomes.

All the scams are just necessary vaccinations, it's wrong in my view to tell people to live in this plastic bubble (lawful growth economy of environmental destruction) where everything is safe because in the real world it isn't. We need scam immunity. Living like a parasite in a growth economy is the biggest scam ever perpetrated. [ ... ] I hate scammers and manipulators as much as you do but I know in Bitcoin land a honest measure of wealth that evolves organically will develop an immunity to such things, this belief comes from systems that evolve naturally the foundation or our consciousness.

Scammers and thieves are a problem as old as mankind, or even older.  Governments were invented and evolved over millennia for the purpose of fighting them, among other things.  They don't always work as intended, but in most places people would rather have a bad government than no government (or a toothless one).

Somewhere I read this quip, "bitcoin is the tool that the devil invented to teach Economy to the nerds."   The impressive list of bitcoin scams and failures may perhaps serve to teach them also the importance of professional accounting and financial regulations -- and why government is a good thing. 

[darklight]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

[spooderman]

-snip-

The impressive list of bitcoin scams and failures may perhaps serve to teach them also the importance of professional accounting and financial regulations -- and why government is a good thing. 

This is a joke right?

You ever heard of Enron?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Try to grasp that, dude.

Everything that you say can, from investor standpoint, be quantified. They are very real things, and they carry a certain probability, and have a certain effect. Bitcoin has suffered quite a lot during its existence, and the outcome is 100,000 times value increase since the end of 2009. It has not been easy during this time, and the growth has happened nevertheless. Assuming that with overwhelming (>>99%) probability Bitcoin is destroyed in an instant with no trace of recoverable value left, still does not make it a -EV proposition for the following 5 years!!   (if the positive case is that it replaces fiat)

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least). Because I think it is almost inevitable, just like all the other new technologies that just were better than the previous way of doing things.

Difficulties like what? There has never been anything as important to bitcoin before then to step over the threshhold to get the legal framework and instututional funding. Everything before this has been just fun and games.

You are kind of losing me here when you are telling me that you actually believe that Bitcoin could replace fiat. When you want explanations for that, then I give you several.

1. No country with a right mind will replace fiat for a currency that is controlled and owned by anonymous individuals, who have no responsibility over that currency. And who are also in high probability former criminals, when you consider the history of bitcoin.
2. There are no mechanics in bitcoin that enable it to offer price stability. And please don't try to insult my intelligence by telling that wider adoptation will create the stability. As long as bitcoin is very attractive to speculative play, then there will always be strong volatility.
3. If an country would use BTC as legal tender, that is both attractive to speculative play and distributed by an unregulated market system, then it would be extremely easy to cordinate economic attacks by hostile countries.

Fiat isn't just a piece of paper that is printed. The main difficulty for sustaining a quality currency is keeping price stability, and it isn't something that is created by itself. It is created by taking into account the available resources or foreign currencies and by regulating the flow of money according to that information. When the regulation is done right, then prices keep stable and it is possible to make plans with the support of that currency. Bitcoin has fixed supply and therefor it's not able to regulate it's flow to offer price stability. It's all about attracting investors with it's high possibility of deflation.

When you want to talk about BTC replacing fiat, then open your own business and start to use BTC with converting it to fiat only quarterly and try to earn profit with this instability. You can only start dreaming of BTC replacing fiat after services like BitPay would become useless, but I can't how that could happen with fixed supply.
Right now, when someone is asking me "Why couldn't we just use BTC as fiat", then it sounds the same to me as some kid would ask me on why couldn't he just pay with his monopoly money. There are complexities involved that bitcoin is just not able to handle.

[aminorex]

-snip-

The impressive list of bitcoin scams and failures may perhaps serve to teach them also the importance of professional accounting and financial regulations -- and why government is a good thing. 

This is a joke right?

You ever heard of Enron?

The government itself *is* Enron.  For example, on 10 Sept. 2001, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told the U.S. Congress that the Department of Defense had misplaced 2.3 tn USD.  That is 2.3e12 USD for which they could not account.   The federal government of the U.S. is one of the best, cleanest national governments in the world.  It is also vastly more criminal than any other entity of remotely comparable power.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

[edwardspitz]

Prepare for amazing analysis: You will get a lot more manipulation from people with few coins compared people with many coins. Newbies with a few coins have a lot more at stake and will therefore do anything to manipulate the market any way they can. It is the same with forum activity and post count. Members with lots of post will always speak their honest opinion. Think about it: They have been in the game for a long time and many of them only trade to pass the time (not to make $). Giving sound advice on these boards is basically one of their philanthropies.  

On a related note: Do not put trolls on "ignore". If you do you will miss out on great entertainment, says newbe :-)

Not everyone who has a lot of posts has been around for a long time, there are accounts here who've been around for a couple of months and are Sr. Members already... it's quality that counts, not quantity. Most people just look left and check activity level and never look at the date of the account or the quality of old posts... just saying 

quality that counts, not quantity

I totally agree. I must admit I was being a bit sarcastic in my analysis because I do believe that the pros have a lot more at stake. The real manipulation comes from people who are able to influence the news. Bad/good news, volume/price manipulation, TA and statements from influential people can all be used to promote a certain point of view. It may be more or less sophisticated, so no matter what one needs to stay sharp and make up ones own mind.

[billyjoeallen]

That's probably your breath, instead of coins... you're smelling. It's coming from your mouth just below your nose.

Fonsie?  Oh really? Is the cloning never going to end?

I have to admit, were I a troll, I'd be deeply honoured of having trolls distorting my username in order to troll me back.
Bit like a B-movie gone so popular that it has its own pisstake B-movie.

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Perhaps it's a wise idea to either stop talking or go back to school, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imitation

Nobody's imitating fonzie...

Blowing up smoke his ass, isn't going to help either.

I'm not feeding Fonzie's ego. You are. I've had him on "ignore" for months.

[magicmexican]

You have to love all these butthurt bears in denial

[hlynur]

Somewhere I read this quip, "bitcoin is the tool that the devil invented to teach Economy to the nerds."   The impressive list of bitcoin scams and failures may perhaps serve to teach them also the importance of professional accounting and financial regulations -- and why government is a good thing. 

As if professional accounting and financial regulations helped to prevent the tons of scams and failures going on in fiatworld everyday....
Hopefully new layers added on top of the blockchain will be a first attempt to prevent some scams in the future.

Good luck trying to change financial law to become a neutral entity.

[phatsphere]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least). Because I think it is almost inevitable, just like all the other new technologies that just were better than the previous way of doing things.

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

[boumalo]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

We have a low probability of Bitcoin becoming an important store of value or used for international tranfers or online payments..

There is a low probability that it happens but the reward will indeed be huge if it does

A lot of traders make their trade then incite others to do the same trade by posting here

[billyjoeallen]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

That's true provided this is a manageable part of an investment portfolio. It's not entirely unlike drawing to an outside strait or four cards to a flush in poker. You have a ~37% chance of tripling your money or more in a three way pot. I take that bet every time IF I have a bankroll big enough to handle the expected ~63% of hands it loses.

A more extreme example is a lottery ticket. If a lottery ticket costs two dollars, with a chance of winning of One in a Million with a payout of of $1M, then the expected return of any given lottery ticket is 50 cents. A terrible bet.  But if that same lottery ticket with the same odds and the same payout cost 25 cents, it's a good deal, even if the chance of winning is extremely small. Just don't put a large percentage of your portfolio in lottery tickets.

[criptix]

just one question, any1 knows how much tradevolume was >500 today?
i was pretty much gone the whole day