Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phatsphere]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least). Because I think it is almost inevitable, just like all the other new technologies that just were better than the previous way of doing things.

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

[boumalo]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

We have a low probability of Bitcoin becoming an important store of value or used for international tranfers or online payments..

There is a low probability that it happens but the reward will indeed be huge if it does

A lot of traders make their trade then incite others to do the same trade by posting here

[billyjoeallen]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

That's true provided this is a manageable part of an investment portfolio. It's not entirely unlike drawing to an outside strait or four cards to a flush in poker. You have a ~37% chance of tripling your money or more in a three way pot. I take that bet every time IF I have a bankroll big enough to handle the expected ~63% of hands it loses.

A more extreme example is a lottery ticket. If a lottery ticket costs two dollars, with a chance of winning of One in a Million with a payout of of $1M, then the expected return of any given lottery ticket is 50 cents. A terrible bet.  But if that same lottery ticket with the same odds and the same payout cost 25 cents, it's a good deal, even if the chance of winning is extremely small. Just don't put a large percentage of your portfolio in lottery tickets.

[criptix]

just one question, any1 knows how much tradevolume was >500 today?
i was pretty much gone the whole day

[Newfeeling]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

We have a low probability of Bitcoin becoming an important store of value or used for international tranfers or online payments..

There is a low probability that it happens but the reward will indeed be huge if it does

A lot of traders make their trade then incite others to do the same trade by posting here

I like what that one dude said about buying bitcoin being akin to buying options with no expiry date. It changed my way of looking at things.

[chessnut]

possible breakout brewing.

[rpietila]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

...and by making this rational choice, people increase the odds of the positive outcome actually happening (the more people in, the higher we go and the nearer we are to the positive outcome).

It is quite marvellous, I don't know the actual invisible mechanism, but the visible proof is bitcoin price and its mind-boggling historical development.

- -

Anyone who thinks that Bitcoin has anything higher than 0.1% chance of success, should rationally buy bitcoins. The trick is that buying increases the chance of success. With a few iterations you realize that the chance of success is actually something between 25% and 75%. Then you are very willing to buy bitcoins. Which increases the price, rewards previous investors, gets more people interested, and makes the chance go up. In 3-5 years we have everybody using bitcoins, and an ordinary person has 5mBTC in the west and 1mBTC in BRIC.

Why was the adoption of a new technology with network effects never before so interesting?

[Newfeeling]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least).

No you don't, you just need to explain why it is very unlikely. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable. And I can think of a whole raft of reasons why it is improbable

Sorry if this point seems patronizing or insulting, but you need to be aware, in case you are not, of the concept of expected value.   A very large reward at very low probability may have much higher expected value than a modest reward at high probability.  Because the reward for owning bitcoin is so vast, in the fiat displacement case (which I agree is inevitable, albeit perhaps not with bitcoin as we know it today) even at vanishingly small probability it is a "rational" choice.  The concept of rationality is debatable.  But given the standard concept of rationality, the outcome is not really debatable.

That's true provided this is a manageable part of an investment portfolio. It's not entirely unlike drawing to an outside strait or four cards to a flush in poker. You have a ~37% chance of tripling your money or more in a three way pot. I take that bet every time IF I have a bankroll big enough to handle the expected ~63% of hands it loses.

A more extreme example is a lottery ticket. If a lottery ticket costs two dollars, with a chance of winning of One in a Million with a payout of of $1M, then the expected return of any given lottery ticket is 50 cents. A terrible bet.  But if that same lottery ticket with the same odds and the same payout cost 25 cents, it's a good deal, even if the chance of winning is extremely small. Just don't put a large percentage of your portfolio in lottery tickets.

I just had a chuckle imagining someone trying to martingale the lotto Lol. "I'm on a 16 week losing streak and i'm sitting on 65000 lotto tickets! I'm bound to win next week!"

[aminorex]

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

That would be ill-advised:  Bitcoin is likely to be the best or only way to get into the successor, or at the very least, the best or only way to get into it early on.

[btcsean]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a5SvipyM/

possible breakout brewing.

I think you could possibly be correct here. Look at the charts from the past two days. Huge jumps around 12-1AM EST both nights, which would line up pretty much dead on with your chart.

[billyjoeallen]

To rationally decide to not buy a lot of bitcoins, you have to explain why it is impossible for Bitcoin to replace fiat (as a store of value, at least). Because I think it is almost inevitable, just like all the other new technologies that just were better than the previous way of doing things.

you are right, one aspect nevertheless: there could be a successor to bitcoin in its current form ... then it's clear that everyone will jump ship. i think, quite a few of those who have "missed" bitcoin so far think, that they'll simply wait for this new incarnation and hold back their investment.

That's the old "early bird gets the worm, but the second rat gets the cheese" argument. There is merit to that argument, but as long as the successor incorporates the Bitcoin block chain, it will not replace bitcoin. It will become Bitcoin. Green backs did not replace dollars after the U.S. War of Northern Aggression. Greenbacks became dollars.

If you missed the land boom, I suppose you could always wait for the real estate market on the moon, but that wouldn't make terrestrial holdings worthless.

[JorgeStolfi]

-snip-

The impressive list of bitcoin scams and failures may perhaps serve to teach them also the importance of professional accounting and financial regulations -- and why government is a good thing. 

This is a joke right?

You ever heard of Enron?

Of course I have heard of Enron. And of Worldcom, and Madoff... 

Did you know that a dozen managers of those companies were found guilty of criminal offenses, and many (I don't know if all) of those went to jail?

Perhaps that is why, among thousands of companies of similar size, there have been relatively few such scams.

By "relatively" I mean "compared to bitcoin-related enterprises".  Here is an outdated and incomplete list of bitcoin scams and thefts.  How many of those have resulted in convictions? 

Why would a bitcoin entrepreneur (say, the owners of BTC-e) refrain from doing what those people did?

[Syke]

Bitcoin will not be a ponzi if, and only if, it succeeds

Don't be an idiot. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

[Richy_T]

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=blowing%20smoke%20up%20your%20ass
"Feeding someone's ego with constant adoration and commentary"

Are you actually familiar with urban dictionary? It is hardly authoritative.


FWIW, the actual origins are from a treatment for drowning. I don't think many people got saved that way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uEJbwGYaDs

[Richy_T]

Since English is not my native tongue, I'm not going to loose any sleep over such a ridiculous mistake...

Now you /are/ trolling.

[PoolMinor]

Since English is not my native tongue, I'm not going to loose any sleep over such a ridiculous mistake...

Now you /are/ trolling.

Another person with the name "fonsie" nah no trolling there. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cassius]

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=blowing%20smoke%20up%20your%20ass
"Feeding someone's ego with constant adoration and commentary"

Are you actually familiar with urban dictionary? It is hardly authoritative.


FWIW, the actual origins are from a treatment for drowning. I don't think many people got saved that way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uEJbwGYaDs

I took my life in my hands when I clicked that link. Fortunately, I had seen the QI episode and thought it would probably go to this. Also, they didn't have movie cameras in the 19th century.

[chessnut]

if this little correction goes on without breaking 490 for another few hours, I'd have to assume it is just a little correction. The support is impressive. By the looks of it, Huobi is ready to continue.

[Lowryder]

Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.

That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)

I would put it this way:

Only about $0.5 million of the daily bitcoins generation enters the market. Of that, the following are interested:

20 G20 countries
50 midsize countries
70 small countries
70 very small countries
500 billionaires
10,000 100-millionaires
1 million 10-millionaires
30 million millionaires
500 large corporations
500,000 midsize corporations
500 million Europeans with <1M net worth
300 million N. Americans -..-
300 million S. Americans -..-
200 million ex-Soviet -..-
1,700 million in Indian peninsula
1,600 million in China
1 billion in other parts of Asia
500 million more in Asia
1 million existing bitcoin investors thinking it is cheap

It is mathematically certain that everybody cannot get many bitcoins. The list above included so many entities that it is certain that some of them realize that acting before others is an advantage, like any one reading this has realized. Then they start to want the bitcoins, and as the daily interest exceeds $0.5 million, the price starts to rise.

Bitcoin will fail due to its natural scarce nature.
It WILL not work:
-as mean of transaction
-store of value

If the technology is so unique and outstanding, the scarce nature
Will ultimately destroy it.

The value will be zero.

Wake up!!!!!!!