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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26373137 times)
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billyjoeallen
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April 15, 2014, 09:08:25 PM


Anyone who thinks that Bitcoin has anything higher than 0.1% chance of success, should rationally buy bitcoins. The trick is that buying increases the chance of success. With a few iterations you realize that the chance of success is actually something between 25% and 75%. Then you are very willing to buy bitcoins. Which increases the price, rewards previous investors, gets more people interested, and makes the chance go up. In 3-5 years we have everybody using bitcoins, and an ordinary person has 5mBTC in the west and 1mBTC in BRIC.

Why was the adoption of a new technology with network effects never before so interesting?

Because money is the ultimate network effect. By definition, money is the most marketable commodity. In other words, the most liquid commodity is de facto money.

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April 15, 2014, 09:13:23 PM



I like what that one dude said about buying bitcoin being akin to buying options with no expiry date. It changed my way of looking at things.

This is exactly what I thought when I started buying. I traded gold and silver options back in the day to gear up my physical positions and I always hated rolling over (or not) on expiry. With BTC I loved the idea of (amongst other things) taking a hedge against the shaky-looking financial system (Chancellor on the brink...) without value time decay and in fact a good chance, by design, of appreciation over time.

It amazes me that anyone with an interest in economics or PMs or trading of any kind wouldn't take a position in BTC, even a small one. The downside limit is just your stake, but the upside possibility is immense. People talk about diversifying, usually into a less risky asset when another has done well, but diversifying is also about having a little something from the wild side, just for the chance of a moon shot. That's how you beat the averages, that's how you break out. In those terms BTC is a no-brainer.

When I first started buying in summer '12, there was still a real risk of complete collapse - that's why it was cheap. In the 22 months since the protocol has withstood a hacking/stealing technical onslaught and the tech odds are very much more in favour of survival, so the risk/reward has changed. Now the price is weighed down by regulatory uncertainty and is cheap because of the PTB onslaught. It may successfully come out the other side in which case the price would obviously go nuts, but even it doesn't there will be some market for a proven, robust, near-anonymous, trans-national, transferrable store of value.

Why on earth wouldn't you hold a least a few as a portfolio outlier? No need to trade, no need to guzzle the kool-aid or even hang around here, it's simply the easiest bet of trading lifetime.
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April 15, 2014, 09:14:12 PM

EuroTrash
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April 15, 2014, 09:22:48 PM

Bitcoin will not be a ponzi if, and only if, it succeeds

Don't be an idiot. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

Ok, now I have to be that guy.

Actually bitcoin does have at least two qualities of a ponzi scheme:
1. Early investors who gradually change back to fiat are basically earning money off the last round of investors.
2. Investors heavily advertise it because they know that the more new investors join, the more they gain.

I am not denying the absolutely awesome technological wonder that bitcoin is, and the fact that I can use it to move money across countries in a breeze (operation otherwise made unnecessarily painful by the sucking bastard governments and banks involved)
Still let's admit that we are in the speculation forum watching markets because we hope to get rich, and bitcoin keeps us hooked because of 1. and 2. above.
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April 15, 2014, 09:30:36 PM

Difficulties like what? There has never been anything as important to bitcoin before then to step over the threshhold to get the legal framework and instututional funding. Everything before this has been just fun and games.

That the (then-current) powers that be try to stifle innovation is as old as the Earth. And yes, sometimes they succeed. Name one.

Quote
1. No country with a right mind will replace fiat for a currency that is controlled and owned by anonymous individuals, who have no responsibility over that currency. And who are also in high probability former criminals, when you consider the history of bitcoin.

If any country was truly independent, it would have adopted Bitcoin already, mainly because of the fact that it would make them insanely rich. It is like if Norway was asked, "do you want to have all this oil for free, we can give it to Scotland also?" Of course they take it.

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2. There are no mechanics in bitcoin that enable it to offer price stability. And please don't try to insult my intelligence by telling that wider adoptation will create the stability. As long as bitcoin is very attractive to speculative play, then there will always be strong volatility.

If you quote prices and wages in something, no matter what, they are stable in that. (Duh.)

USD or anything else does not have price stability either - it can fluctuate against other fiat currencies, gold, commodities, real estate, goods - tens of % per year. In the long term, gold has better served as a provider of price stability. During the gold standard, this was natural (see the comment with "Duh"), but even afterwards, prices denominated in gold have fluctuated less than prices in USD. This is mainly because of the persistent inflation of USD, of course, but that is the only way to keep a fiat system inflated due to the requirement to pay interest to 100% of the money base.

As long as Bitcoin grows, it will have a high volatility. When it matures and becomes a global quote currency, the volatility against other things settles to a level at most comparable to today's USD.

(Adam Smith's / Antal Fekete's) Real Bills are a vehicle that can accommodate the need of self-liquidating credit in an economy.

Quote
3. If an country would use BTC as legal tender, that is both attractive to speculative play and distributed by an unregulated market system, then it would be extremely easy to cordinate economic attacks by hostile countries.

There is mainly one global enemy to the sovereignty of countries, and you are likely employed by that. Of course the country has to realize the prospect of economic warfare, but really everything is better than the current fiat slavery. I would probably use a currency basket method in internal contracts (employment contract wage BTC0.01 + $5 per hour) and many other things. It is quite novel, and therefore interesting.

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Fiat isn't just a piece of paper that is printed. The main difficulty for sustaining a quality currency is keeping price stability, and it isn't something that is created by itself. It is created by taking into account the available resources or foreign currencies and by regulating the flow of money according to that information. When the regulation is done right, then prices keep stable and it is possible to make plans with the support of that currency. Bitcoin has fixed supply and therefor it's not able to regulate it's flow to offer price stability. It's all about attracting investors with it's high possibility of deflation.

Sweet talk does not cover the fact that the record of post-1971 USD as a "stable currency" is abysmal and horrific; it has utterly destroyed the nation that in the 1960s was the powerhouse of the world, and now is a shell, producing nothing, and living off of sucking dry the rest of the world. The inhabitants of the USA are impoverished by innumerable means and are now totally indebted by the booms and busts made possible by this irredeemable "stable" dollar. I could go on but let's leave it here.

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When you want to talk about BTC replacing fiat, then open your own business and start to use BTC with converting it to fiat only quarterly and try to earn profit with this instability. You can only start dreaming of BTC replacing fiat after services like BitPay would become useless, but I can't how that could happen with fixed supply.

Why would I ever need to convert it to fiat? Owner of Localbitcoins never has more than $100, all his business and personal finances have been in bitcoins for years. My business is ill-suited for your experiment because I trade between fiat-BTC-gold-silver. But one of my companies seem to never have converted its income to fiat nor used it. (Link in sig)

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Right now, when someone is asking me "Why couldn't we just use BTC as fiat", then it sounds the same to me as some kid would ask me on why couldn't he just pay with his monopoly money. There are complexities involved that bitcoin is just not able to handle.

I give you the benefit of doubt that you meant it sincerely. Nevertheless, you are wrong. I mean, I see that we are moving to the direction that makes it possible in the coming years, and technology always wins.
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April 15, 2014, 09:31:04 PM

if this little correction goes on without breaking 490 for another few hours, I'd have to assume it is just a little correction. The support is impressive. By the looks of it, Huobi is ready to continue.

I doubt it will break 3220 ish...could be wrong.

i'm still holding (for now) but soon to become a bear again Smiley
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April 15, 2014, 09:31:50 PM


Ok, now I have to be that guy.

Actually bitcoin does have at least two qualities of a ponzi scheme:
1. Early investors who gradually change back to fiat are basically earning money off the last round of investors.
2. Investors heavily advertise it because they know that the more new investors join, the more they gain.

That describes stocks, classic cars, art, baseball cards, or anything collectible.
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April 15, 2014, 09:32:03 PM

Bitcoin will not be a ponzi if, and only if, it succeeds

Don't be an idiot. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

Ok, now I have to be that guy.

Actually bitcoin does have at least two qualities of a ponzi scheme:
1. Early investors who gradually change back to fiat are basically earning money off the last round of investors.
2. Investors heavily advertise it because they know that the more new investors join, the more they gain.

I am not denying the absolutely awesome technological wonder that bitcoin is, and the fact that I can use it to move money across countries in a breeze (operation otherwise made unnecessarily painful by the sucking bastard governments and banks involved)
Still let's admit that we are in the speculation forum watching markets because we hope to get rich, and bitcoin keeps us hooked because of 1. and 2. above.


If bitcoin is a ponzi scheme then the US dollar is too.
The US dollar has nothing much to back it's value. It's 100% marketing and people invested in US dollars want more people in to uphold it's value.
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April 15, 2014, 09:34:04 PM

BTW.

We have run out of sellers and buyers, but these Chinese keep on knocking at the top's door, even in their sleep.
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April 15, 2014, 09:34:19 PM

if this little correction goes on without breaking 490 for another few hours, I'd have to assume it is just a little correction. The support is impressive. By the looks of it, Huobi is ready to continue.

I also cancel my short trade and issue a buyback at $4 loss.
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April 15, 2014, 09:34:37 PM

Bitcoin will not be a ponzi if, and only if, it succeeds

Don't be an idiot. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

Ok, now I have to be that guy.

Actually bitcoin does have at least two qualities of a ponzi scheme:
1. Early investors who gradually change back to fiat are basically earning money off the last round of investors.
2. Investors heavily advertise it because they know that the more new investors join, the more they gain.

I am not denying the absolutely awesome technological wonder that bitcoin is, and the fact that I can use it to move money across countries in a breeze (operation otherwise made unnecessarily painful by the sucking bastard governments and banks involved)
Still let's admit that we are in the speculation forum watching markets because we hope to get rich, and bitcoin keeps us hooked because of 1. and 2. above.


That is because we take it as a propriety. Bitcoin is a currency. So no cash out in fiat and just use it to pay for beer. No ponzi scheme if we use it for what it was meant.
Well bitcoin is just a child, so i agree as early investors we will drink a lot of beer.
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April 15, 2014, 09:39:18 PM

BTW.

We have run out of sellers and buyers, but these Chinese keep on knocking at the top's door, even in their sleep.

From my point of view, chinese have dried the supply.

We should break both trendline sooner than later. I was expecting at least a bounce but it shouldn t occur. I f they succed to break also the second trendline ( the log one ) we should see a violent move upward as it will be a very strong signal for the bulls waiting in fiat on the sideline.
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April 15, 2014, 09:42:27 PM


China already broke their downtrend... maybe its why they are so bullish:

ChrisML
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April 15, 2014, 09:49:09 PM

Bla bla fucking bla. Troll this troll that.

The fuck are we giving them credits for? Lets just, ignore, continue and pretend not a single fuck is given. Which, actually is not.

In the meantime it's almost midnight here and we have a $500+ on bitstamp. Hell yea.
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April 15, 2014, 09:50:34 PM

again this bot on btce:)
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April 15, 2014, 09:52:17 PM

Bitcoin will not be a ponzi if, and only if, it succeeds

Don't be an idiot. Bitcoin is not a ponzi.

Ok, now I have to be that guy.

Actually bitcoin does have at least two qualities of a ponzi scheme:
1. Early investors who gradually change back to fiat are basically earning money off the last round of investors.
2. Investors heavily advertise it because they know that the more new investors join, the more they gain.

I am not denying the absolutely awesome technological wonder that bitcoin is, and the fact that I can use it to move money across countries in a breeze (operation otherwise made unnecessarily painful by the sucking bastard governments and banks involved)
Still let's admit that we are in the speculation forum watching markets because we hope to get rich, and bitcoin keeps us hooked because of 1. and 2. above.


True, but Bitcoin lacks the critical component of a ponzi scheme: deceit. Ponzi victims are intentionally mislead as the the source of their dividends and or profits. Bitcoin is radically transparent. Open Source. Public bockchain.

We are betting on expected future utility value, not future speculative value.
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April 15, 2014, 09:59:29 PM

Prepare for liftoff?
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April 15, 2014, 10:00:19 PM


Explanation
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April 15, 2014, 10:01:00 PM

wow, so bullish order book on huobi. and so much buying power, even in night they pump it with close to 0 volume.
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April 15, 2014, 10:05:16 PM

buy support is also mounting above 500 levels at Stamp...can finally feel a shift of sentiment in the air.   Was getting tired of all the negativity around here!  Grin
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