Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rudius]

China appears to be sleeping so US markets are having trouble trying to rally.. lol

exactly lol. Maybe they could ask the FED some $ for free?

Just bitstamp trying, i would aprreciate some efforts from BTCE and bitfinex too

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 16

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3345 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 529 USD

(NOTE: This is the Method's prediction, not my prediction.)





Plot legend

Today's data point was only passable (S = 0.0049, W = 0.619).  Anyway, with two points, we can try a straight-line trend, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 2919, B = 213.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.32 CNY/USD. It was 6.32, 6.38, 6.21, 6.24 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 23:11 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)

Foiled again by the devious Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2919 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3132 CNY
Error: 213 CNY (~34 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 469 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 495 USD
Error: 26 USD
 
NOTE:
  "Si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,     
  sentendosi come Gesù nel tempio,   
  si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,       
  se non può più dare cattivo esempio."
    --Fabrizio De Andrè, Bocca di Rosa

[PoolMinor]

Indeed.  I don't understand why so many smart people feel the need to acknowledge let alone engage with the trolls.  All posts of all Fonzies, Mervyns et al could be deleted tomorrow and precisely zero value would be lost.  In fact if we could get rid of the posts that quote them too then this thread might actually be readable and useful again.  As it is right now, half of the page is wasted with "This user is ignored."

If that last statement is not true for you, then there's a good chance that you're already one of the people being ignored.

Surely you could not be referring to my excellent artwork?

[jonoiv]

if we do indeed break 3220, this bear will become a bull.  But it's not party time yet.  Many people will be looking at the march bull phase, and looking at the volume, which is lower now than it was on the failed reversal.  Now I'm not saying that doesn't mean this bull phase can't succeed.  but although there is only 1000 BTC on huobi to break 3220, there will be plenty ready to dump into your pump.  

I'm  just giving you the other side of the argument.  for a more balanced view.  

[edwardspitz]

Wall moving up. Much impressed!

[Hen0xyd]

7-day-high on Huoby - at night :O
@Jorge : kangaroo trading indicator seems nice, almost as nice as dinosaurs

[rudius]

Nice, Bitfinex joins the party.

[hd060053]

huobi about to break 3200 at night?? cant be more bullish

[niothor]

China appears to be sleeping so US markets are having trouble trying to rally.. lol

Let China sleep... forever
I 've had it with their news and exchanges

[EuroTrash]

We all are China's bitch. Stamp price with Huobi price behaves like an altcoin price with bitcoin price.

And speaking of alts, crazy gains today! Some lot of people are buyingspeculating on a lot of shit.

[spiderbrain]

The volume of this pump is very similar to March 3. The difference is that it is spread over two days instead of one. I won't trust this as a true recovery unless there is a successful retest of $340 support on higher volume. Every dollar spent on the exchange is a dollar not used to put a floor on the price in the event of another stampede for the exits.

You kids run and play. I guess it falls to me to be the responsible adult in the room. A roll I am unused to. Hopefully I will not be needed.

fine words, sir.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I like what that one dude said about buying bitcoin being akin to buying options with no expiry date. It changed my way of looking at things.

This is exactly what I thought when I started buying. I traded gold and silver options back in the day to gear up my physical positions and I always hated rolling over (or not) on expiry. With BTC I loved the idea of (amongst other things) taking a hedge against the shaky-looking financial system (Chancellor on the brink...) without value time decay and in fact a good chance, by design, of appreciation over time.

It amazes me that anyone with an interest in economics or PMs or trading of any kind wouldn't take a position in BTC, even a small one. The downside limit is just your stake, but the upside possibility is immense. People talk about diversifying, usually into a less risky asset when another has done well, but diversifying is also about having a little something from the wild side, just for the chance of a moon shot. That's how you beat the averages, that's how you break out. In those terms BTC is a no-brainer.

When I first started buying in summer '12, there was still a real risk of complete collapse - that's why it was cheap. In the 22 months since the protocol has withstood a hacking/stealing technical onslaught and the tech odds are very much more in favour of survival, so the risk/reward has changed. Now the price is weighed down by regulatory uncertainty and is cheap because of the PTB onslaught. It may successfully come out the other side in which case the price would obviously go nuts, but even it doesn't there will be some market for a proven, robust, near-anonymous, trans-national, transferrable store of value.

Why on earth wouldn't you hold a least a few as a portfolio outlier? No need to trade, no need to guzzle the kool-aid or even hang around here, it's simply the easiest bet of trading lifetime.

This is an excellent and profound insight that I have also harboured for some time ... and one that most people get to at some point. The cost of holding a few bitcoins as percentage of total holdings is minimal, and dropping as services get better. Ever since it started trading for fiat the middle-of-the-road position has been "why not hold a few?".

There is an interesting exercise in statistics that backs up this reasoning in the case surrounding buying lottery tickets. Just living in the city, state or country where a lottery is taking place puts you minimally in the game, whether you like it or not, because there may be a very, very slim chance that someone, a friend or relative, will gift you a lottery ticket as present or you find one on the street. Now the odds that you will win the lottery from a gift/found ticket are clearly astronomically less than winning the lottery with a ticket that you brought for yourself so as risk/reward the first dollar you spend on buying the lottery ticket is improving your odds by a greater margin than than buying more and more tickets. In this sense, buying a lottery ticket makes more sense economically than not buying just by the fact that you are in the proximity of a lottery taking place. The cost of reducing those first odds is much less than decreasing them further after the first ticket.

The same is true now for the whole globe, by buying a few bitcoin you are much more likely to gain from them than by not buying but by being gifted or finding some e.g. It is somewhat scary, especially for people like Jorge Stolfi, that you are already in the bitcoin game now, whether you like it or not!!! ... unless you are an undiscovered Amazonian tribe member.

TL;DR .... you can NOT afford to be out of bitcoin as an economic risk/reward proposition by mere fact of you being on the Internet.

[Ozymandias2]

Wow, that wall got eaten up, replenished, eaten and replenished again. What a battle!

EDIT: and pulled

[Walsoraj]

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[barbs]

Wow.  This battle is epic and made me glad i dumped into that strange 514 wall? wtf was that guy thinking?

what a market.

[aminorex]

3200 has fallen

[derpinheimer]

China is gonna go nuts if they wake up soon  

But they probably wont trade for another 10 hrs

[EuroTrash]

The volume of this pump is very similar to March 3. The difference is that it is spread over two days instead of one. I won't trust this as a true recovery unless there is a successful retest of $340 support on higher volume. Every dollar spent on the exchange is a dollar not used to put a floor on the price in the event of another stampede for the exits.

You kids run and play. I guess it falls to me to be the responsible adult in the room. A roll I am unused to. Hopefully I will not be needed.

fine words, sir.

I disagree. The pump of March 3 was one single player with a few millions. This one is a lot of tiny little buys on Chinese markets that keep on pressing from the bottom up, inspiring confidence in the western markets and causing the leveraged shorts to explode in a fireworks show.

Is this concerted? I don't think so. I think we simply have a new massive herd of Chinese gamblers who are entering the speculation game by buying bitcoins and altcoins.

[hd060053]

stamp will break 515 in the next minutes !