Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 16Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3345 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 529 USD
(
NOTE: This is the
Method's prediction, not
my prediction.)
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%2F%7Estolfi%2Ftemp%2F2014-04-15-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png&t=665&c=P2dWe4jMBEvhMg)
Plot legendToday's data point was only passable (S = 0.0049, W = 0.619). Anyway, with two points, we can try a straight-line trend, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 2919, B = 213.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.32 CNY/USD. It was 6.32, 6.38, 6.21, 6.24 at the last four Slumber Times.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 23:11 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)
Foiled again by the devious Chinese:
Huobi's predicted price: 2919 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3132 CNY
Error: 213 CNY (~34 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 469 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 495 USD
Error: 26 USD
NOTE:
"Si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,
sentendosi come Gesù nel tempio,
si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,
se non può più dare cattivo esempio."
--Fabrizio De Andrè,
Bocca di Rosa