Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

best to do it while the price is falling tho.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin to governments is like chicken pox to native Americans.

Let's not exaggerate.  Bitcoin may be a terrible disease, and spreading it intentionally may be a heinous crime; but I don't think it can be compared to genocide.

[TeeBone]

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

[windjc]

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

Exactly the way I feel. My last short position failed to fill at 527, even though that was exactly the high. That last runup on Houbi to the resistance line was on very very low volume compared the other runups.

Maybe we have more in the tank. Maybe we go to the exponential trendline. But this doesn't feel like a bottom to me. This feels like a bunch of traders riding the wave on an appearance of a bottom.

I don't think we just break down to new intermediate lows (340) and then recover on low volume. I'm betting I make a profit on this trade. If not and it goes to 600+ then I'll just take the hit.

[TERA]

I think there was a covert bear mission to jump onto a moving train and detach the engine. Now all the bitcoiners are unknowingly stuck in cars that are just drifting down the track. But they don't know because they're busy with champagne and disco lights.

[Newfeeling]

Bitcoin to governments is like chicken pox to native Americans.

Let's not exaggerate.  Bitcoin may be a terrible disease, and spreading it intentionally may be a heinous crime; but I don't think it can be compared to genocide.

Financially Transmitted Disease is a thing now? I'm guessing marriage and Amway are in the diagnostic manual?

[FNG]

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

[TeeBone]

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

Not quite. i've been shorting since selling at 900, and it's been an enjoyable ride.

However, i dont plan on missing the next space shuttle either.  

[MikeH]

If the technology is so unique and outstanding, the scarce nature
Will ultimately destroy it.

The value will be zero.

Wake up!!!!!!!

You're an idiot

Play a record

[billyjoeallen]

the end of bitcoin

??

People here accuse me of saying 'the end of bitcoin' all the time so I might as well start actually doing it.

The problem I see with you entering the forex market besides not being able to see volume is that you will basically have to guess what future central bank liquidity decisions are and attempt to front run them. It's the ultimate rigged market.

 

[chessnut]

third time bounce. this is a bullish wedge 

[windjc]

third time bounce. this is a bullish wedge  

On a runup on super low volume.

Are you watching volume of the last 3 runups? Decreasing dramatically.

How far do you think we go before correcting downward? The market just went up 47% in a few days.

No rest until 1000?

[JorgeStolfi]

In my understanding, a trade happens at price X when the seller thinks that X is a bit too high, and the buyer thinks that X is a bit too low.

During periods when the sentiment of all buyers and all sellers about the item's value is unchanging, trading quickly stops and the market price remains mostly constant.

Conversely, when something causes the general sentiment to change, the market price changes, and volume usually increases -- because each trader usually changes his evaluation by a different amount and at a different time, so the above condition is often satisfied, possibly more than once for the same pair of traders.  (If all the traders changed their perceptions in perfect synchronism, the implicit market price -- that is, the midpoint of the ask/bid spread -- would change without any trades.)

If these premises are correct, then what is happening now at Huobi?  For the last 4 hours, I see quite substantial volume (~5kBTC/hour), but the price just wanders in the narrow range between 3230 and 3280 yuan, about 4 dollars up or down from the midpoint.

What is going on in the heads of those traders?  Why can't they find the equilibrium?  Their perceptions could not be changing constantly like that, up and down by a few dollars, at random.  Are their robots locked in a bogus feedback loop, each endlessly over-reacting to the small over-reactions of the other robots?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

third time bounce. this is a bullish wedge  

On a runup on super low volume.

Are you watching volume of the last 3 runups? Decreasing dramatically.

How far do you think we go before correcting downward? The market just went up 47% in a few days.

No rest until 1000?

I am expecting 540 today, consolidation then 580, and then a long time between 500-600.

[billyjoeallen]

I think there was a covert bear mission to jump onto a moving train and detach the engine. Now all the bitcoiners are unknowingly stuck in cars that are just drifting down the track. But they don't know because they're busy with champagne and disco lights.

Then they've done their job.  This market doesn't exist to make us money. We get paid to reduce volatility.

[aminorex]

the end of bitcoin

??

People here accuse me of saying 'the end of bitcoin' all the time so I might as well start actually doing it.

The problem I see with you entering the forex market besides not being able to see volume is that you will basically have to guess what future central bank liquidity decisions are and attempt to front run them. It's the ultimate rigged market.

 

Nonetheless there are useful ways to predict those outcomes.  For example, the game theoretical approach used by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, author of " The Predictioneer's Game" is powerful.  It might be automated - but there's a lot of epistemic risk in the approach.

Another approach suggested during the Bernanke era is to use the *descriptive* models of central bank interest rate policies which he developed in academic life as though they were *prescriptive*.  Too late for that now - Yellen never wrote such a study. Taylor's rule remains a powerfully informative prior.

One might gain some edge by interpreting rate curve models as boundary value problems in hilbert space, but I'm also skeptical of virtuoso tricks in general - K.I.S.S.

FX is characterized by "paradoxical" dynamics - which create a paranoid gaming recursion. However, for liquid pairs, there is enough fine-scale volatility so that you can usually turn a profit on pure maceration of the trade, even if you get the trend wrong (!) - which should almost never happen, since the broadest trend is read directly from interest rate differentials.

Whether that environment is suited to TERA's peculiar skills I dare not guess.

[JorgeStolfi]

Another thing I noticed at Huobi right now is that the order book seems to be almost completely static, except very close the spread. In my recollection, their order book is usually quite dynamic during the day, even far from the spread.  Is that so?

Does that mean that all the trade going on this morning is generated by a few runaway robots, trading with each other?

[EuroTrash]

Wedge closing in Huobi just about now. It's a game of musical chairs and the music is stopping. Short or long?

[windjc]

third time bounce. this is a bullish wedge  

On a runup on super low volume.

Are you watching volume of the last 3 runups? Decreasing dramatically.

How far do you think we go before correcting downward? The market just went up 47% in a few days.

No rest until 1000?

I am expecting 540 today, consolidation then 580, and then a long time between 500-600.

Ok. We'll see.