Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[edwardspitz]

Wedge closing in Huobi just about now. It's a game of musical chairs and the music is stopping. Short or long?

buy&wait

That is what I would do if I could monitor the situation closely and if I was using Stamp. Unfortunately I'm at work and can't monitor the situation closely... so I feel it is a bit risky to buy right now.

People talk a lot about new money coming into the system. These new money will buy at a high price and they help to push the price up for a day. But at the end of the day people take their profits, because nightly drops have been so frequent over the past months. Holding might be a good strategy if you bought at $100, but at this stage it is not a good strategy not for newcomers. Things are looking up though, but it will take some time before people get more confident. I wish China was more transparent. The events last night around 1 am GMT (I think) shows how fragile the situation is imo.

[FNG]

Bedtime. Maybe my shorts will fill before I wake!  

Hope you set stops

[billyjoeallen]

I know this sounds whacky, and it probably is, but the 12 HR chart on Huobi looks like one giant bot trading pattern. I have certain advanced pattern recognitions skills I have been tested for, but I can't explain how they work. It's just a feeling.  The danger is that the lower the signal to noise ratio, the greater your risk of picking up false patterns. It's not unlike Professor Nash reading Russian Codes into all those newspapers in the movie " A Beautiful Mind".

So I'm going to preface this by saying I'm probably wrong and it's most likely sour grapes from missing a bunch of trades, but I get the feeling that this is something massive, like a fraud on the scale of Mt. Gox or even greater.

I'm not a conspiracy guy. 911 truthers weird me out. I think Oswald acted alone. I don't believe in Bigfoot, Nessie or the Loch Ness Sea Monster. I think conspiracy types use the Illuminati or whatever to avoid the personal blame for being losers. So I know how stupid this is going to make me look, but something is just not right.

I don't feel like someone's out to get me. I feel like someone's out to get everyone. I'm a dude. I can't afford to make decisions based on feelings. I have to make decisions based on reason. So I need to step back and try to regain some self-awareness. This is much more likely a problem with my perception than a problem with the market, but it is such a powerful feeling of foreboding and I have no evidence at all to back it up.

[podyx]

I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts.  That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?

That we were at the bottom?? it was kinda obvious, I was spamming about it

[cech4204a]

I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts.  That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?

I'm not sure if i get you here...

[JorgeStolfi]

Did you really understand the decline from 600 to 340 in face of nothing but positive news and developments? To me, that was the irrational part.

Well, to me the entire history of the price since October makes sense, even if it is not predictable.

Since October, the bitcoin market has been like that of oyster sauce or tai chi chuan: namely, a Chinese thing, with a few aficionados in the rest of the world.  (This does not apply to the bitcoin-based services and big investors, but only the exchanges, where the price is set.)

Last time I looked, the Chinese exchanges had something like 95% of the total trade volume.  Even if 3/4 of their volume were fake (and I have not seen evidence for that claim), they would still have 80% of all the volume.  On the other hand, it may be that half or more of the volume in the Western exchanges is merely arbitrage with China.

Further evidence that China is the market  is that (as you note) the price seems to solemnly ignore all the positive news and developments in the West, reacting only to news that matter to the Chinese.  For starters, I haven't seen any plausible explanation for the October/November rally other than the opening of the market in Mainland China.  The collapse in December was clearly due to the Chinese government's restrictions; the recovery up to January, to the recovery of Huobi and OKCoin; the lull in the first week of February, to the Chinese new Year holidays; and so on. 

More recently, all the major drops and jumps since march/26 were clearly due to the Chinese market reaction to Chinese rumors and developments related to the Caixin leak.

Even today's mini-rally (which, so far, has only undone part of the Caixin article's damage) can only be explained by the lack of negative news on the conjectured April/15 deadline. (I wonder whether the enthusiasm is warranted.  "Gee, the plane has been falling for five minutes, we should have crashed by now.  That story about 'ground' must have been only a false rumor.")

So, the explanation for the gradual drop from 600 to 400 must be sought in China, too.  It may be a combination of the input of coins by Chinese miners, gradual exit of traders from the market, and insufficient entry of new players.  (Since the Chinese cannot use bitcoins for commerce, they cannot believe in the long-term valorization, and their only attraction must be day trading.  But, on any day, some fraction of the traders will lose so much money that they will give up and never return.)

[seleme]

I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts.  That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?

There are some bigger news about this, this is too mental pump to be just a pump. Blockchain guy tweeted he is so excited too yesterday or so, there is something going on and we've been played to sell them cheap coins (well, I didn't sell them cheap hough I haven't bought ones too, we as community).

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts.  That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?

What do you mean by "Bitstamp posted"? Where?

[explorer]

I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts.  That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?

What do you mean by "Bitstamp posted"? Where?

to the moon tweet

subsequently removed, IIRC

[cech4204a]

I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts.  That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?

What do you mean by "Bitstamp posted"? Where?

tweet

what did they tweet about?

[rudius]

I know this sounds whacky, and it probably is, but the 12 HR chart on Huobi looks like one giant bot trading pattern. I have certain advanced pattern recognitions skills I have been tested for, but I can't explain how they work. It's just a feeling.  The danger is that the lower the signal to noise ratio, the greater your risk of picking up false patterns. It's not unlike Professor Nash reading Russian Codes into all those newspapers in the movie " A Beautiful Mind".

So I'm going to preface this by saying I'm probably wrong and it's most likely sour grapes from missing a bunch of trades, but I get the feeling that this is something massive, like a fraud on the scale of Mt. Gox or even greater.

I'm not a conspiracy guy. 911 truthers weird me out. I think Oswald acted alone. I don't believe in Bigfoot, Nessie or the Loch Ness Sea Monster. I think conspiracy types use the Illuminati or whatever to avoid the personal blame for being losers. So I know how stupid this is going to make me look, but something is just not right.

I don't feel like someone's out to get me. I feel like someone's out to get everyone. I'm a dude. I can't afford to make decisions based on feelings. I have to make decisions based on reason. So I need to step back and try to regain some self-awareness. This is much more likely a problem with my perception than a problem with the market, but it is such a powerful feeling of foreboding and I have no evidence at all to back it up.

Man,
Why are you flipping ideas every hour. With your idea about china wanted all the bitcoins, you must have been right. They are manipulating us since the beginning. That is just fair b/c they are putting their money on the line.

You just pushed it a little too far with the gov wanted bitcoin as a reserve currency that must have been some good weed ^^
But chinese individuals, surely wanted a biggest share of the pie. They are just buying as quick as they could before western people wake up. This is the first buying round. All chinese doing.

Well, this is only what i think anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

Exactly the way I feel. My last short position failed to fill at 527, even though that was exactly the high. That last runup on Houbi to the resistance line was on very very low volume compared the other runups.

Maybe we have more in the tank. Maybe we go to the exponential trendline. But this doesn't feel like a bottom to me. This feels like a bunch of traders riding the wave on an appearance of a bottom.

I don't think we just break down to new intermediate lows (340) and then recover on low volume. I'm betting I make a profit on this trade. If not and it goes to 600+ then I'll just take the hit.

Maybe by Thursday, we will be $620?

[nanobrain]

I'm a dude. I can't afford to make decisions based on feelings. I have to make decisions based on reason.

No, that's just the sexual politics you've been brought up with.

If you were a dude hunting sabre-tooth tiger and you felt the feelings you are having now you would act on them and avoid being eaten by some large nasty creature.  That's how we managed to survive and evolve.

Emotional intelligence has nothing to do with being a man or a woman.  Listen and acknowledge what your instinct is telling you and add it to the mix when decision making: if it helps, this is the sort of advice survivalists, criminologists, even the military etc provide for situations when 'data' is insufficient.

[cech4204a]

Wow, what a day. All my shorts up to 520 filled, but i cant say im feeling comfy.
Still hard to believe that this is it, the turnaround we've been waiting for on such anemic volume. I'll take a hit at around 600 and rebuy.

Exactly the way I feel. My last short position failed to fill at 527, even though that was exactly the high. That last runup on Houbi to the resistance line was on very very low volume compared the other runups.

Maybe we have more in the tank. Maybe we go to the exponential trendline. But this doesn't feel like a bottom to me. This feels like a bunch of traders riding the wave on an appearance of a bottom.

I don't think we just break down to new intermediate lows (340) and then recover on low volume. I'm betting I make a profit on this trade. If not and it goes to 600+ then I'll just take the hit.

Maybe by Thursday, we will be $620?

most likely this could happen before midnight (masses again).

[el_rlee]

Wow. I pretty much underestimated how many people were waiting for a clear bottom to buy obviously...

[seleme]

BTC-e Metatrader doesn't work so no shorts there 

[windjc]

Have to LOL @ this.

China is bananas. Absolutely bananas.

We are still going down. I don't know when, but we will. This has to take a breather.

[cech4204a]

Have to LOL @ this.

China is bananas. Absolutely bananas.

We are still going down. I don't know when, but we will. This has to take a breather.

why do you thin so ? I'm quite optimistic about bitcoin value, but why do you think it is about to go down?
every day i see new businesses accepting BTC, new sites with gambling accepting BTC, a lot of sites offering work for beeing paid in BTC, so trust me, BTC is not gonna just die like that, global awareness will make it's price explode sooner or later.

[windjc]

Have to LOL @ this.

China is bananas. Absolutely bananas.

We are still going down. I don't know when, but we will. This has to take a breather.

why do you thin so ? I'm quite optimistic about bitcoin value, but why do you think it is about to go down?
every day i see new businesses accepting BTC, new sites with gambling accepting BTC, a lot of sites offering work for beeing paid in BTC, so trust me, BTC is not gonna just die like that, global awareness will make it's price explode sooner or later.

It has to correct. This market is up over 50% in the last few days.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Have to LOL @ this.

China is bananas. Absolutely bananas.

We are still going down. I don't know when, but we will. This has to take a breather.

^^This, fellows, is the sound of Butthurt of a Bear.^^