Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

I'm a dude. I can't afford to make decisions based on feelings. I have to make decisions based on reason.

No, that's just the sexual politics you've been brought up with.

If you were a dude hunting sabre-tooth tiger and you felt the feelings you are having now you would act on them and avoid being eaten by some large nasty creature.  That's how we managed to survive and evolve.

Emotional intelligence has nothing to do with being a man or a woman.  Listen and acknowledge what your instinct is telling you and add it to the mix when decision making: if it helps, this is the sort of advice survivalists, criminologists, even the military etc provide for situations when 'data' is insufficient.

We have evolved all sorts of instincts that were helpful in more primitive environments but harmful now. For example we are hungry too often and tend to over eat. I think you have sexual politics backwards. We are expected to suppress natural masculine behavior more and more in modern society. You subtly imply that I'm sexist for even saying their are masculine traits such as the tendency to act less on emotion that women do.  Men and women have brains that are wired differently. The two hemispheres in males are less interconnected than with females. It's one reason why there are no women chess champions.

EDIT: Typo. It's MALES who have less interconnected brains. I'm not saying it means that men are smarter at everything. That is not the case. It's more like we have brain damage that gives us rain-man like abilities compared to women because our brains cannot do what women's brains can do so we focus on what we can focus on. It's a disability that frees us up to do what we do best, not unlike blind people getting more information from sound even when their hearing is no better than anyone else's.
This is intentional hyperbole to make a point, but the cumulative effect on large populations is noticeable and measurable.

I don't give a shit if you call me "sexist" or not. Name-calling is not rational argument.

[darklight]

Do all you guys shouting your TA around realise that in this instance the TA had nothing to do with it? We only bounced from your resistance levels due to the 'news', who knows what it would have done otherwise

[hdbuck]

Do all you guys shouting your TA around realise that in this instance the TA had nothing to do with it? We only bounced from your resistance levels due to the 'news', who knows what it would have done otherwise

its more about the actual price than the news. news are an attempt to rationalize what seems irrational but remains intrinsically rational nonetheless..

[ShroomsKit]

Do all you guys shouting your TA around realise that in this instance the TA had nothing to do with it? We only bounced from your resistance levels due to the 'news', who knows what it would have done otherwise

its more about the actual price than the news. news are an attempt to rationalize what seems irrational but remains intrinsically rational nonetheless..

 

[rudius]

Do all you guys shouting your TA around realise that in this instance the TA had nothing to do with it? We only bounced from your resistance levels due to the 'news', who knows what it would have done otherwise

Not quite. You have to look the effect that news have on the price to understand what is going on. TA is all about where sellers meet buyers etc...

So what is going on?

Chinese had broke the exponential trendline have been restested it, and the news came. The price reinter the triangle and now have retested it from below.

[hdbuck]

Do all you guys shouting your TA around realise that in this instance the TA had nothing to do with it? We only bounced from your resistance levels due to the 'news', who knows what it would have done otherwise

its more about the actual price than the news. news are an attempt to rationalize what seems irrational but remains intrinsically rational nonetheless..

 

Well, if i would to expand my opinion, i'd argue that its the price of an asset that directly impact its future price. the news are just picked up at some time to justify some price movement whilst it really isnt the main cause for it. Most traders in wall street back then didnt even care about financial statements or the company's strategy of the assets they were playing with, they just looked at the tape. In other words, we've seen bitcoin price could go beyond what was expected not even a year ago. It just need to deflate before jumping up again. Back in december when i called a drop back to 300ish everyone was just insulting me for having such a wrong idea and being a bear troll who missed the train and blabla.

Well, i bough in at 350, sold at 950 and just bought back at 350, i dont intend to trade on the medium scale of a bubble as i find it too stressful (and have a life besides bitcoin). but thats just the way bubble goes, inflate then step back to previous high before surging up again to new ATH. its just the price of ATH that sets up the deflationarry part of such bubble. but the good thing is by the time we get to new ATH, 1000-1200$ will be rock bottom as $260-330 would be for now and as 30-50$ was before etc etc

edit: so to explain my previous claim that you had trouble understanding, news are here to make you comply with the deflationary downtrend, as a drop would otherwise look irrational to you who just witnessed the surge to 1200$, but it's just very rational since we lack energy, money, infrastructure, people, or whatever to sustain the price (this technology) at such levels.

[octaft]

EDIT: Typo. It's MALES who have less interconnected brains. I'm not saying it means that men are smarter at everything. That is not the case. It's more like we have brain damage that gives us rain-man like abilities compared to women because our brains cannot do what women's brains can do so we focus on what we can focus on. It's a disability that frees us up to do what we do best, not unlike blind people getting more information from sound even when their hearing is no better than anyone else's.
This is intentional hyperbole to make a point, but the cumulative effect on large populations is noticeable and measurable.

I don't give a shit if you call me "sexist" or not. Name-calling is not rational argument.

Basically true. Men have more grey matter, women have more connective tissue, and grow up with a stronger connection between the left and ride side of their brains. Women will tend to be better at emotion, intuition, and memory, men will tend to be better at things involving coordination, motor skills, and spatial reasoning. Men and women even activate different parts of their brains when performing the same tasks.

There will be differences in every individual, of course. Maybe you have more of a female brain than you realize.

[rpietila]

Have also noticed that Bitstamp are becoming tighter and tighter with allowing deposits to register in peoples accounts. I sent over just $3K the other day and again, they are wanting me to 'prove' where I am getting it from. I told them to fuck off. I am getting my money back, I can't see how I am going to get any amount of money back onto that exchanges cos no way am I giving them any personal details of the description that they are asking for. Bet there are quite as lot of Bitcoiners who are feeling the same. Not exactly conducive to increased adoption is it?

That's very interesting and I agree, not conducive to increased adoption.
I wonder what the perma bulls (aminorex, risto) think of this.
Thanks Mat.

I agree. But the general infrastructure is robust: excessive measures by any single exchange hurt that exchange more than anything, and therefore the competition keeps them at check.

My "permabullness" has lasted for exactly 50 days now. Before that I was a bear for 97 days, almost twice as long!

[magicmexican]

Still waiting for 3070 on Huobi

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Still waiting for 3070 on Huobi

BTC-e already in $4xx, looks like other will follow - sooner or later.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I was wrong about the 3220 wall, it was broken with more bullish sentiment than expected. But the chart I posted yesterday is still following the same pattern, just at a slightly higher price than expected.  we are in a very similar situation to march 4th / 5th at the moment, and the markets are behaving almost exactly the same.  

Not many interested in buying in this uncertain climate, so the best guess I can form is, the same as what happened in march.  I think we will settle at around 490 and go sideways again...  until the volume goes very low.

All this can change, based on (valid) news or well executed FUD.  (possessive or negative).

A simplistic way of looking at the market, yet quite often effective.  History repeats itself imho.  

So history repeats itself until when? We go to zero?

It repeats itself until it doesn't. Until whatever is causing this to happen stops causing it to happen or is outweighed by other factors. Rationality is sometimes beneficial, but sometimes the safety of the herd is beneficial when predators are around. We have to have a healthy respect for our limitations as well as our abilities. There is the unknown and then there is the unknowable.

Bitcoin cost of production is too high right now relative to utility value. The speculative value to me and I imagine many others right now is negative. I don't have the tools to trade with confidence in this environment. I don't speak Mandarin or Cantonese. I'm very good with language, but Google translate does not allow me to pick up the subtle cues that give me a small edge.

My TA sucks, but my skill at language allows me to know who's TA to trust. The people I trust who are more skillful than me, and are intelligent and honest tell me not to trade, so I'm not trading. Bitcoin may be a fantastic buy for someone right now, but not for someone with my investment portfolio. Again, if the situation changes then my position will change, but not before that.

China is an unknown. in the amount of time I have, it is an unknowable. I'm hedging.

[Newfeeling]

https://i.imgflip.com/86r69.jpg

[NewLiberty]

Still waiting for 3070 on Huobi

BTC-e already in $4xx, looks like other will follow - sooner or later.

And you know this is true, because the previous two times that prices went below 400 this year it was at 700 within the week and that sort of thing just never happens 3 times in a row.

[MelMan2002]

Are we sure it was the Chinese news that caused the dump and not this?
http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702303663604579504691512965308-lMyQjAxMTA0MDEwNTExNDUyWj

[BitChick]

Has anyone posted yet that there is actually a Bitcoin ATM that is set up and running as of today in Shanghai?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-china-bitcoin-idUSBREA3F0MK20140416

[JorgeStolfi]

One of the several things that make me skeptical of bitcoin's future is that its community resembles more a religious sect than a bunch of sane, rational nerds.

In order to sustain belief in their initial ideal, bitcoiners have developed a network of dogmas that is becoming increasingly intricate and increasingly disconnected from reality.

A substantial part of that theological edifice is meant to allow denial of the single most important fact about bitcoin:

CHINA SETS THE PRICE

To make the denial of this fact possible, bitcoiners pretend to believe, e.g: that almost all of the Chinese trade volume is fake; that BTC-China is the most important Chinese exchange (and the only honest one); that the November rally was due to some magical property of bitcoin that generates rallies at regular intervals, with exponentially increasing magnitudes; and a number of other bizarre dogmas.

Because of these dogmas, the main bitcoin chart sites still omit most or all the large Chinese exchanges (but they all carry the insignificant BTC-China).  Even when it is obvious that price changes are clearly due to Chinese traders reacting to Chinese news, the deniers blame "stupid sheep" in the Western exchanges for "paying attention to China" -- when in fact the Western exchanges are tied to China by arbitrage, and follow China no matter what their clients think, wish, or do.

I can't understand how people hope to succeed in day trading or long-term investment without taking this basic and all-dominant fact into account.   

On the other hand, it is easy to see why bitcoiners desperately need to deny this fact. Bitcoin entrepreneurs would not find investors and clients if they admitted that the value of their fundamental asset is decided and sustained by a legion of fickle amateur traders in China, who, a year ago, were all speculating on fermented tea or some other kind of tulip.  Libertarians do not want to know that their main "anti-government weapon" was taken over by a country that they see as the epitome of oppressive government -- and was reduced by that government to a harmless hobby, in one day, with a single decree.  And the old-timers, in particular, will never admit that "their" beloved bitcoin is no longer "theirs".

[hdbuck]

Are we sure it was the Chinese news that caused the dump and not this?
http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702303663604579504691512965308-lMyQjAxMTA0MDEwNTExNDUyWj

see thats exactly what im talking about, you're desperate about finding correlation between exterior events and bitcoin's price. search more and you'll definitely find something that suits your concerns.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Still waiting for 3070 on Huobi

BTC-e already in $4xx, looks like other will follow - sooner or later.

And you know this is true, because the previous two times that prices went below 400 this year it was at 700 within the week and that sort of thing just never happens 3 times in a row.

Sarcasm? My unprofessional opinion was just based on the lack of buyers' enthusiasm - and sellers' nervousness. Although $500 is an important psychological barrier, so may take a while.

[podyx]

We're gonna see a big bear trap in a couple days

(about 430 is expected)