Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[oda.krell]

Of course there are moment when some other exchanges take control for short time but this time, beside his usual biased bullshit Jorge is right in general.

We can deny it as much as we want but Bitcoin is currently China's bitch and largely depends on each fart coming from that part of the world. Their government decisions or even only rumors about them are moving the market as a wheel. It might change at some time surely but right now we are under China's mercy completely and that's awful thing, specially for people who are trading as no skills and indicators can beat a single news coming from China. And their exchanges are in most cases the market leaders.

Well, the details matter here, and jorge's polemics didn't include those: just like, on an average (or not so average) day Bitstamp and Huobi influence each other, so do they on the larger scale.

If your model has a rigid structure where Bitstamp price is purely a function of Huobi price, then you will fail to see the (inevitable, in the long run) decoupling of the other markets from China when (and if) China drops out of the game entirely.

Didn't say that'd be painless, by the way.

[billyjoeallen]

A simplistic way of looking at the market, yet quite often effective.  History repeats itself imho.  

So history repeats itself until when? We go to zero?

It repeats itself until it doesn't. Until whatever is causing this to happen stops causing it to happen or is outweighed by other factors. Rationality is sometimes beneficial, but sometimes the safety of the herd is beneficial when predators are around. We have to have a healthy respect for our limitations as well as our abilities. There is the unknown and then there is the unknowable.

Bitcoin cost of production is too high right now relative to utility value. The speculative value to me and I imagine many others right now is negative. I don't have the tools to trade with confidence in this environment. I don't speak Mandarin or Cantonese. I'm very good with language, but Google translate does not allow me to pick up the subtle cues that give me a small edge.

My TA sucks, but my skill at language allows me to know who's TA to trust. The people I trust who are more skillful than me, and are intelligent and honest tell me not to trade, so I'm not trading. Bitcoin may be a fantastic buy for someone right now, but not for someone with my investment portfolio. Again, if the situation changes then my position will change, but not before that.

China is an unknown. in the amount of time I have, it is an unknowable. I'm hedging.

I expect it to follow the same path.  That's why I'm not buying back for the time being.

And if trusting people are more or less intelligent based on language you are very mislead,  plenty of very cleaver foreign people posting that may not have a total grasp of the language.

language is a non-logical skill learned via repetition and imitation. Countless genii of pure logic, science and art throughout history were thought to be dyslexic and were poor at written language skills.

Albert Einstein
Galileo Galilei
Leonardo da Vinci
Steve Jobs
John Lennon
Jonoiv  (kidding)

to name a few!

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not saying language skills make someone intelligent. I'm saying MY language skills allow me to identify intelligence and many other traits in other people. Vocabulary is a major indicator, but you are quite correct that genius appears in many forms, and that foreigners with limited English may be extremely smart.

For example I'm almost positive Dorian is not Satoshi because of his language. Dorian is very smart, but for him to be Satoshi, it would require an elaborate effort to mislead and misdirect that is exceedingly improbable. Occam's Razor applies. Leah Goodman is a writer. She should have known better.

[billyjoeallen]

These things are very sticky and something BIG has to happen for that to change.

Certainly, something BIG, but it can happen gradually, without attracting attention, until suddenly everyone wakes up one day and realizes that events in China are no longer impacting price action disproportionately.

Of course, but something that gradually makes China less relevant will effect the market gradually as well. Some day China WILL BE less relevant, but a gradual change mean it's improbable that day will be soon.

There are almost always flat spots between major rallies.

[uhoh]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Not really the exchange as we are familiar with. I expected more than that.

This is not the exchange they're talking about, this is just how they get their coins for the BIT, its been up for a while now. Incidentally, they're very fast and professional. Great way of selling a large amount, a wire from a large registered broker looks better than "Bitstamp Slovenie"

[Davyd05]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Let the summer of American investors begin or Divestors

[octaft]

A simplistic way of looking at the market, yet quite often effective.  History repeats itself imho.  

So history repeats itself until when? We go to zero?

It repeats itself until it doesn't. Until whatever is causing this to happen stops causing it to happen or is outweighed by other factors. Rationality is sometimes beneficial, but sometimes the safety of the herd is beneficial when predators are around. We have to have a healthy respect for our limitations as well as our abilities. There is the unknown and then there is the unknowable.

Bitcoin cost of production is too high right now relative to utility value. The speculative value to me and I imagine many others right now is negative. I don't have the tools to trade with confidence in this environment. I don't speak Mandarin or Cantonese. I'm very good with language, but Google translate does not allow me to pick up the subtle cues that give me a small edge.

My TA sucks, but my skill at language allows me to know who's TA to trust. The people I trust who are more skillful than me, and are intelligent and honest tell me not to trade, so I'm not trading. Bitcoin may be a fantastic buy for someone right now, but not for someone with my investment portfolio. Again, if the situation changes then my position will change, but not before that.

China is an unknown. in the amount of time I have, it is an unknowable. I'm hedging.

I expect it to follow the same path.  That's why I'm not buying back for the time being.

And if trusting people are more or less intelligent based on language you are very mislead,  plenty of very cleaver foreign people posting that may not have a total grasp of the language.

language is a non-logical skill learned via repetition and imitation. Countless genii of pure logic, science and art throughout history were thought to be dyslexic and were poor at written language skills.

Albert Einstein
Galileo Galilei
Leonardo da Vinci
Steve Jobs
John Lennon
Jonoiv  (kidding)

to name a few!

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not saying language skills make someone intelligent. I'm saying MY language skills allow me to identify intelligence and many other traits in other people. Vocabulary is a major indicator, but you are quite correct that genius appears in many forms, and that foreigners with limited English may be extremely smart.

For example I'm almost positive Dorian is not Satoshi because of his language. Dorian is very smart, but for him to be Satoshi, it would require an elaborate effort to mislead and misdirect that is exceedingly improbable. Occam's Razor applies. Leah Goodman is a writer. She should have known better.

Notice how all those people he listed are guys. Language skills are a female brain strength.

Your brain might not be completely female, but it definitely likes to throw on dresses and go out on the town every now and then. 

I don't mean this as an insult, glad to see you're not taking it that way.

[JorgeStolfi]

Where do you get the idea from that the price is set by China? From your own "Chinese slumber" method? Last time I checked, it was wildly off, during several large swings.

No, the "Slumber Method" is just a highly speculative (not in the trading sense) attempt to predict price ~20h in advance, assuming that there are no sudden exogenous events affecting the Chinese traders.  It is wildly off when there are such events, which of course cannot be predicted from the price history -- that information is simply not there.

My purple conviction above is due to observation that all the major and persisitent price changes since october, except one, are easily explained a posteriori by events in China and news that concern the Chinese traders, cannot be explained otherwise, and seem completely oblivious to developments in the West that do not affect China.

The Western exchanges may contribute short-lived spikes, and may lag behind when the price in China is changing to fast; but when looked at the 1d scale, especially at timeswhen China is quiet, they track the Chinese price very closely, apart from slight changes in the effective CNY/USD rate.  And, more importantly, they too react to Chinese developments, but not to Westen ones.

The only price event after Octover that does not seem correlated to events relevant to China is the sudden jump on Mar/03.  It may be that Bitstamp led that change, reacting to the Bloomberg ad-news,  However, Bloomberg News is carried worldwide, and it may have caused the jump directly in China.  Or there may have been some other local development that I could not identify.

This reminds me of the often stated "fact" that stamp blindly follows gox. Of course prices on the two exchanges were correlated to an extremely high degree, and often enough, stamp followed gox, but towards the end, the two simply decoupled, without much ado. If your theory can't account for that (and in the polemic way your phrased it, it cannot), then it is worthless, in my opinion.

The two exchanges decoupled only when MtGOX essentially blocked BTC transfers, which stopped arbitrage trade between them and the rest.  After that point there were two separate commodities, "bitcoin" and "goxcoin", with independent markets.

The Western exchanges would surely decouple from China if arbitrage was somehow cut off (I can't imagine how).  Which ways they would go, I have no idea. 

[billyjoeallen]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Volume? Volume is key.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

[oda.krell]

The two exchanges decoupled only when MtGOX essentially blocked BTC transfers, which stopped arbitrage trade between them and the rest.  After that point there were two separate commodities, "bitcoin" and "goxcoin", with independent markets.

The Western exchanges would surely decouple from China if arbitrage was somehow cut off (I can't imagine how).  Which ways they would go, I have no idea. 

With your gox statement, you described essentially what a final decoupling of Western exchanges from China would look like: if every last coin China scooped up is sold on the Western exchanges. That's a finite process, so for those not interested in swings that measure months up to a year maybe, it's irrelevant anyway.

And for the "daytraders" that you mentioned in your post, it's simply too crude (and too unimportant) exactly how many coins China plans on sending "back". The rate at which they do so can be seen in the charts anyway, so there's no need to speculate about the final state when you can trade the process in between.

I simply don't see the problem: it neither touches the core of Bitcoin's functionality, nor does it present an insurmountable problem for traders.

I am still somewhat open for the argument that Bitcoin's core could be considered compromised if /all/ the world's major governments would ban it, but so far, even the ones that are banning it (China) are kind of half-hearted about it (China) :P

[gizmoh]

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not saying language skills make someone intelligent. I'm saying MY language skills allow me to identify intelligence and many other traits in other people. Vocabulary is a major indicator, but you are quite correct that genius appears in many forms, and that foreigners with limited English may be extremely smart.

For example I'm almost positive Dorian is not Satoshi because of his language. Dorian is very smart, but for him to be Satoshi, it would require an elaborate effort to mislead and misdirect that is exceedingly improbable. Occam's Razor applies. Leah Goodman is a writer. She should have known better.

Should be of interest to you:

Linguistic Researchers Name Nick Szabo as Author of Bitcoin Whitepaper

http://www.coindesk.com/linguistic-researchers-name-nick-szabo-author-bitcoin-whitepaper/

[bobdude17]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Volume? Volume is key.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

CampBX has a combined daily deposit/withdrawal limit of $1,000. Please tell me you're joking.

[billyjoeallen]

Notice how all those people he listed are guys. Language skills are a female brain strength.

Your brain might not be completely female, but it definitely likes to throw on dresses and go out on the town every now and then. 

I don't mean this as an insult, glad to see you're not taking it that way.

LOL. That's funny. Most great writers and orators are men. Language may be a female brain strength, but because the male bell curve is flatter, Exceptional men often outperform exceptional women at even the stuff women are good at. 

A more politically correct way of putting it is that men are more often weird and women are more often normal. I embrace the weird.

[Adrian-x]

Of course there are moment when some other exchanges take control for short time but this time, beside his usual biased bullshit Jorge is right in general.

We can deny it as much as we want but Bitcoin is currently China's bitch and largely depends on each fart coming from that part of the world. Their government decisions or even only rumors about them are moving the market as a wheel. It might change at some time surely but right now we are under China's mercy completely and that's awful thing, specially for people who are trading as no skills and indicators can beat a single news coming from China. And their exchanges are in most cases the market leaders.

Jorge has hypnotised you  
To interpret his input you need to work from his premise, I believe it goes like this. Bitcoin is not an investment but a bet with unknowable odds. Every input thereafter is an attempt at manipulating the odds in a 0 sum game.

[billyjoeallen]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Volume? Volume is key.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

CampBX has a combined daily deposit/withdrawal limit of $1,000. Please tell me you're joking.

That proves my point, not yours. I used it three years ago for the same reason you think people will use Second Market now. Nobody followed. The market jumps when the market jumps, not when you or I think it ought to jump. I'll move there when and if others move there, not before.

[octaft]

Notice how all those people he listed are guys. Language skills are a female brain strength.

Your brain might not be completely female, but it definitely likes to throw on dresses and go out on the town every now and then. 

I don't mean this as an insult, glad to see you're not taking it that way.

LOL. That's funny. Most great writers and orators are men. Language may be a female brain strength, but because the male bell curve is flatter, Exceptional men often outperform exceptional women at even the stuff women are good at. 

A more politically correct way of putting it is that men are more often weird and women are more often normal. I embrace the weird.

Yeah I'm teasin'. I don't actually know enough about the subject to comment in depth on what you're saying here, but since what I do know lines up with what you've said, I'll take your word for the rest.

[billyjoeallen]

Of course there are moment when some other exchanges take control for short time but this time, beside his usual biased bullshit Jorge is right in general.

We can deny it as much as we want but Bitcoin is currently China's bitch and largely depends on each fart coming from that part of the world. Their government decisions or even only rumors about them are moving the market as a wheel. It might change at some time surely but right now we are under China's mercy completely and that's awful thing, specially for people who are trading as no skills and indicators can beat a single news coming from China. And their exchanges are in most cases the market leaders.

Jorge has hypnotised you  
To interpret his input you need to work from his premise, I believe it goes like this. Bitcoin is not an investment but a bet with unknowable odds. Every input thereafter is an attempt at manipulating the odds in a 0 sum game.

That is a brilliant summary. Better said than he ever said it.

[bobdude17]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Volume? Volume is key.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

CampBX has a combined daily deposit/withdrawal limit of $1,000. Please tell me you're joking.

That proves my point, not yours. I used it three years ago for the same reason you think people will use Second Market now. Nobody followed. The market jumps when the market jumps, not when you or I think it ought to jump. I'll move there when and if others move there, not before.

No. Nobody jumped because it was limited to $1,000 deposit/withdrawal a day. That is not an exchange.
That's the last I'm going to say on it. This should be self explanatory.

[uhoh]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Volume? Volume is key.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

CampBX has a combined daily deposit/withdrawal limit of $1,000. Please tell me you're joking.

That proves my point, not yours. I used it three years ago for the same reason you think people will use Second Market now. Nobody followed. The market jumps when the market jumps, not when you or I think it ought to jump. I'll move there when and if others move there, not before.

There is a reason to use SecondMarket. They're a fully registered and compliant brokerage firm. I'll personally definitely be using them when I cash out.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Volume? Volume is key.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

CampBX has a combined daily deposit/withdrawal limit of $1,000. Please tell me you're joking.

That proves my point, not yours. I used it three years ago for the same reason you think people will use Second Market now. Nobody followed. The market jumps when the market jumps, not when you or I think it ought to jump. I'll move there when and if others move there, not before.

There is a reason to use SecondMarket. They're a fully registered and compliant brokerage firm. I'll personally definitely be using them when I cash out.

Do you know what happens if they loose coins due to hacking? Do they have limited liability? How do they compare with coinbase?