Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

Big buyer on Bitfinex.... and big seller too.

somebody has sold 500 BTC at 535, while the wall at 530 is untouched.

EDIT wall gone! haha! I think maybe time to see correction to 500, maybe even 485 as planned.

As planned?

I was expecting a correction to 500-480 before fresh highs after 548.

[uhoh]

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Not really the exchange as we are familiar with. I expected more than that.

This is not the exchange they're talking about, this is just how they get their coins for the BIT, its been up for a while now. Incidentally, they're very fast and professional. Great way of selling a large amount, a wire from a large registered broker looks better than "Bitstamp Slovenie"

You are showing the transfer to people with whom you spend the lower amount BIT pay than Bitstamp because some vendor will give you discounts?  Or is this because the lower payout rate of BIT means you have to find some way to justify to someone that you sold under the market rate so you explain how good the wire transfer "looks"?

SecondMarket pay the market rate based on Stamp, so I'm not sure what you're getting at there. In terms of how the wire transfer "looks", yes. If I end up being audited I'd like the proof of earnings to come from a registered wall-street broker than a 3 year old bitcoin startup .. call me crazy!

[MoreFun]

Now climb aboard you all, this train is bound for glory. And there is plenty of room for all!

Ode to Satoshi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=519CY3IM4S8  

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 17

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3198 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 513 USD





Plot legend

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0005, W = 0.995); Huobi's clients slept soundly after a hectic day.  The last three points are far from being aligned, so fitting a straight line to all three them seems unjustified, and using only the last two seems too risky.  Instead we assumed a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 3202.5, B = -283.56, and Q = 0.24883 (which is almost, but not quite, the same as repeating the last value).

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 22:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull:

Huobi's predicted price: 3345 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3185 CNY
Error: 160 CNY (~26 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 529 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 511 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
NOTE: "Satisfaction guaranteed, or twice your load back."  -- sign on septic tank truck

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Patel]

I think we can all agree, things will only get better from here.

[Adrian-x]

This is bullish
Li Ka-Shing sells his properties in China and buys into the Bitcoin dream.
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8828198/li-ka-shing-family-sells-beijing-property
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/2321/20131229/asian-billionaire-backs-bitcoin-investing-bitpay.htm

[BitAddict]

This is bullish
Li Ka-Shing sells his properties in China and buys into the Bitcoin dream.
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8828198/li-ka-shing-family-sells-beijing-property
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/2321/20131229/asian-billionaire-backs-bitcoin-investing-bitpay.htm

You're mixing old news with new ones 

[chessnut]

lotsa hidden sell orders on bitfinex...buy walls gone, but it seems to be fighting still...
lets see!

[akujin]

btc-e whales are the ones pushing the price up  



after btc-e pump up to 530's, huobi ate the sell wall

[uhoh]

Normal service has been resumed. Thanks for flying Bitcoin!

[Adrian-x]

This is bullish
Li Ka-Shing sells his properties in China and buys into the Bitcoin dream.
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8828198/li-ka-shing-family-sells-beijing-property
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/2321/20131229/asian-billionaire-backs-bitcoin-investing-bitpay.htm

You're mixing old news with new ones  

I see I have it backwards

[JorgeStolfi]

If I were a famous multi-billionaire, I would charge 1 million US$ to donate an "undisclosed sum" (actually 1 US$) to any interested startup. 

[rudrigorc2]

Li ka shing is bearish on China... what does that mean?

[BBmodBB]

CRYPTSY HACKED!!!! LOL 

[BBmodBB]

Explanation

ALL MY BTC GONE *POOF* cryptsy banned me for asking why? GOOD GOD! =\

[Adrian-x]

If I were a famous multi-billionaire, I would charge 1 million US$ to donate an "undisclosed sum" (actually 1 US$) to any interested startup. 

That explains the run up in December then, you would do well in Bitcoin land, you have the eye for spotting scams.

[Adrian-x]

Explanation

ALL MY BTC GONE *POOF* cryptsy banned me for asking why? GOOD GOD! =\

why what? They have been good in the past,  My withdraw all just happen to be lost pending atm.

edit: I fond this quote by The House of Rothschild has served me well in Bitcoin land. "Treat the stock exchange like a cold shower (quick in, quick out)."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MatTheCat]

I've thought over my trading history and realize 80%-90% if my profits are all made during new-ATH rallies and the huge crashes afterwards. I perform very poorly during bear markets and consolidations, and make bank during the rally/crash conditions, doubling my coins exponentially every week. So I should probably just make a resolution to only trade during those short 2-3 month time periods and then leave whenever there is a bear market. Maybe I use the 1W MACD to determine this.

Of course you do. Any mug can make gains when liquidity is pouring into the market. In a bear market when liquidity is being drained from the market, only those ballsy and disciplined enough to sell and buy the utmost extremities of the trend line will make money, other than that the odds are stacked against you and you are just whale fodder. I made most of my gains from Nov 20th onwards up until mid Dec (I sold high and got very lucky with buy-ins at near base of Dec 5th crash). Since then profits have been low and my recent max leveraged short trade that I opted to finally hold out on, got absolutely fkn slaughtered by the time I tapped out which takes me firmly into net loss territory since 2014.

Lesson learned. Same lesson as is occurring in your head and the same lesson that countless others have been taught. Don't trade a blatant bear market. The result of this is more and more liquidity leaves Bitcoin until the point where the splashes made by greedy whales become less and less pronounced due to less and less liquidity reacting to them. No ultimate bottoming out of any market entailed a 45% swing from bottom within a few days, not even a past Bitcoin bottom.

Have also noticed that Bitstamp are becoming tighter and tighter with allowing deposits to register in peoples accounts. I sent over just $3K the other day and again, they are wanting me to 'prove' where I am getting it from. I told them to fuck off. I am getting my money back, I can't see how I am going to get any amount of money back onto that exchanges cos no way am I giving them any personal details of the description that they are asking for. Bet there are quite as lot of Bitcoiners who are feeling the same. Not exactly conducive to increased adoption is it?

They asked you for 'proof', or they asked they asked you to make a simple statement on a KYC form?

Nope.

They wanted documentary evidence.....so I told them to shove it and I am getting my money back.