Maybe, I have finally cracked the #Bitcoin code.
The November 28th Cycles Theory has held the key.
Using 4-year time cycles against my Theory, produces Bitcoins exact behavior in time since its inception.
Cycles are centered around the date of the first halving Nov 28th.
Bitcoin price action began at the first bottom October 8th, 2010. This is where cycle curves peak, every 4 years.
Tops and bottoms come +/- 21 days from Nov 28th at their appropriate times on the curve. Tops on the upswing, bottoms on the pinnacle.
After Bitcoin bottoms, price makes an early first cycle move (orange) and enters into a mid-cycle lull.
This is the longest part of the cycle, where Bitcoin spends time around the median price (half of previous ATH), until the curve bottoms.
The bottom of the curve launches the majority of the bull run (blue circle).
The thought that everyone is expecting 4-year cycles allows them to continue right on track. Things like price and exact timing maintain surprise.
These times cycles continue to hold true to this day. We have now almost certainly put in the early top (4) and are entering the mid-cycle lull.
These take place in June in the year following the bottom. The second cycle did this in 2 years after, in June 2016.
The bull run will launch on Nov 28th, 2024.
The next top will be +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2025.
The next bottom will be +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2026.
The next mid-cycle lull: June 2027.
https://twitter.com/CryptoCon_/status/1699797267895775624[img wi]https://i.ibb.co/D5tTWYW/20230908-164352.jpg[/img]
To me, that sounds too rigid... .. and like a guess based on selectively choosing retrospective data
in addition buy a birthday card and write a creative text on it with the actual passphrase in between that only your trusted person knows about it, atleast that's what i did.
For OpSec sake, I hope you did not actually do this..
But hey,.. whatever.
There sometimes can be some creative ways to share passphrases, seedwords and/or parts of these in various places, and then ONLY certain people need to know that they need to be assembled and the order in which each of the parts might need to be assembled.. ..
like
First: 30th year birthday card
Second: bible in the living room
third refrigerator magnet
and
Fourth license plate on grandpa's 1976 TransAm
And since those 4 places are vulnerable it may be better to have only 3.. and it probably would be good to have a second set (a backup set)...
and yeah, it ends up getting complicated to have these kinds of things, and for which wallets? All wallets?... and maybe that is ONLY for 1 wallet.. so what if you have 20 wallets? and various other secrets (like passwords?). or does the getting of the one group of passwords give access to everything else.. like a master password.. like bitwarden.. or last pass or something in which we might not want to have all of our passwords.. which would have its own vulnerabilities.
If there aren’t any bad actors this cycle,
That's a pretty BIG
"If"^^ I think the 4-year cycle is pretty common knowledge by now right? The only reason the last cycle was slightly different and messed up the models a bit was because FTX manipulated the market buy using people’s BTC to pump shitcoins. If there aren’t any bad actors this cycle, things could end up getting pretty wild.
But the current market situation is also wilder than a few years ago. The bitcoin price can suddenly decrease or rise, then fall and fall again, and then remain at that low price for a while.
The presence or absence of news still makes the market move erratically and confuses those who analyze it and in the end, many people make mistakes in their analysis.
You seem to be focusing on substantive numbers jcojci, rather than percentage moves.
I doubt that it is getting any wilder in terms of percentage moves, even though there surely are some matters that can be framed as wild aspects.. such as how much time we are spending below the 200-week moving average...
Poll
