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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368776 times)
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September 10, 2023, 07:50:17 PM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

guessing game:

where do you guys think will be the lowest coming low that will never be revisited again?

I'm undecided... Taking FTX + Gox coins distribution and Blackrock manipulation into account my guesses are 22k-23k range or 19k-20k range.



18.8k

but its more likely we never go under 20k
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September 10, 2023, 08:02:59 PM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

guessing game:

where do you guys think will be the lowest coming low that will never be revisited again?

I'm undecided... Taking FTX + Gox coins distribution and Blackrock manipulation into account my guesses are 22k-23k range or 19k-20k range.



We're not gonna go under 25k but if we do it will only be for a very short time (as vague as this is, it is ofc only wishful thinking).
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September 10, 2023, 08:11:15 PM

guessing game:

where do you guys think will be the lowest coming low that will never be revisited again?

I'm undecided... Taking FTX + Gox coins distribution and Blackrock manipulation into account my guesses are 22k-23k range or 19k-20k range.



We're not gonna go under 25k ...

Arthur Hayes said the same, if I remember correctly
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September 10, 2023, 08:57:38 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2), Gachapin (1)

[edited out]
Nice story. I've left keys (to locks) with friends and relatives for security purposes, but never my wallet seeds or passphrases/PINs. Maybe I should. We're getting older and accidents happen.

I am thinking that not enough people know, and part of the problem is for any particular person to know too much, but someone likely does need to know that the three parts of the keys are in these three locations, but then maybe we expect that they are not actually going to go to the three locations and put the keys together....

So then I would know and the other person would know, but I am the one who put together the system and the locations.. and so I have back up locations too...

If the person who knows never actually tries out putting the three parts together, then there could be some questions about whether they are going to be able to accomplish the task correctly... and how many back up people are needed.

There could be instructions in a safety deposit box (but are they clear enough in terms of the actual locations of each of the parts of the keys and the order that they need to go together).

The story and/or example that I gave did not even involve the person who I trust to know all three locations, since he ONLY helped me to recover one of the locations, but since I was telling him exactly where to go and what to look for, he was able to communicate that back to me in order that I would be able to plug that information into the hole of the information that I had access to.  

Actually I would trust that particular person with all pieces of the information in part because he would not really know what to do with them or even try on his own. and he would not consult anyone to get technical help to do it.. but if I were to die, and then maybe someone like him would be who needs to know in order to instruct my intended beneficiaries.. while at the same time, if I drop dead on the spot right now, he is not one of the persons who knows anything beyond that one spot that I told him about.. .and I told him that I have three spots, but I was ONLY showing him one.. so it would not help very much for him to know that one spot without having some kind of an idea about the other two spots. and then the back up three spots in case one or more of the primary three spots have damaged or missing words/information.

I think a mega-pump to $200,000+/BTC will surely prompt me to change some things security-wise, perhaps splitting some wallets and arranging for a way for loved ones to access them in case something bad happens.

I get you but then I don't get you.  If that makes any sense?

In some sense, we should already have systems in place that were already largely prepared for $200k to $1.5 million per BTC, since those were already BTC price possibilities in the last cycle... so in that sense I don't get you.

But I do get you in the sense that once something happens, it becomes much more concrete and realistic as compared to when it is merely a future possibility (whether a strong or weak possibility)..

In both the 2017 and the 2021 UPpity periods, I had some wallet locations in which the value contained therein did end up transgressing above some of my comfort levels in terms of actual security and good practices (might we call it gambling or rolling the dice or sloppy or lazy?) - and it seems that quite a few of my practices have improved after each of those periods.. but I can still sense areas of vulnerabilities (that I am not going to necessarily particularize too much more than I already have), so I get you in that sense, also.

Oh, and regarding the hypnotism point.. could you imagine that you were in some location amongst strangers or even people who might have interests in the contents of your memory, and you went to sleep, and you were started saying (or talking in your sleep): coach, phrase, jar, inject, ketchup, window, ride, local, oyster, monster, arrange, useful (not sure if these words lead to any real wallet or not.... pretty low odds...  hopefully not my own.. hahahahaha).. .or maybe instead you had memorized some kind of a story with the words or you started listing out the locations in which the information could be found and which kinds of hardware you use and the various websites along with your mothers maiden name and your childhood nickname.

By the way, I have a little bit of a story, and I am not sure how much I should tell, but I had a situation in which I needed the seed phrase that was supposed to be in three parts and I was missing one of the parts (for reasons), and so I knew that I had two back ups of the three parts, and so I called up a life-long friend, and he surely is not very technical and even though talked with him about bitcoin several times, his eyes glaze over while he is looking at how complicated his flip phone is or that he is trying to get his remote on his TV to work.. (he doesn't have internet).. but anyhow.. I called him up, and I asked him if he could go to the location in which one of the pieces was located, and I would give him the code to get in, and then I would give him instructions about how to get to it while we were on the phone live, and he said o..k.. and he would call me when he was at the location.  It took about 5-10 minutes just to get to locating the place where the words were, and I told him that it would probably be 8 words, and he told me that it is only 4 words.. and then I remembered that it was a 12 word split up instead of a 24 word split.. and so when he read me the 4 words, he mentioned that one of the words was "xxcxxxxx", and I said that does not even sound like a real word, and he read it several times and told me that is what it says.  I said o.k... so I wrote down the 4 words, and I told him that I would let him know if I had any problems in terms of getting access to the wallet that I was wanting to get, but I would have to do it in a few hours.

So when I put together all 12 words, and I typed in the "xxcxxxx"  by the time I got to the second letter, there was already a suggestion that had the word to be "xxrxxxx".. so my friend could have had sworn that the word the one with the "c" and neither of us even thought about the word with the "r".. so sometimes simple mistakes can be figured out, but some kinds of more complicated mistakes might be a lot more difficult to resolve.
You should not split up a seed. someone finding one piece compromises the whole encryption.
Also you often have to get your seed words through communication channels (in your case phone) which has the risk of a middleman attack.

There might be better ways, but I think that my way is better than having all of the seed phrase in one location.

I had heard about a case in which someone had 8 out of 12 words in the correct order, so was able to brute force the last 4 words in less than 24 hours (and I think part of the reason was that he already knew them in order and the 12th word is merely a checksum so once he got 8 of them and in order, he really was ONLY lacking 3 words... so that is part of my rationale for dividing into three rather than one or two.. which a lot of people don't even divide at all because they find it too confusing.. and I would suggest dividing into two is better than not dividing and dividing into three is better than either not dividing or dividing into two. .and maybe even better than dividing into 4 because it becomes increasingly complicated with more parts.. so 3 seems to be a kind of best spot for me for now.

Dividing into 3 seems to require at least the finding of two.. because not much could be done with one.. and even if two are found they still have to know in which slot each of them fits.. and it could take a while to break in even if getting 2 out of the 3.. and that is with 12 seed words.. and 24 seed words would be even more difficult, even if two of the parts are found.

If you want to produce shares to give to friends I highly recommend using Shamir (Model T) where every share in itself is totally worthless and doesn't compromise the security when found. It's a kind of prestage to multisig which requires several wallets but can be manufacturer independent. (so for me Shamir is the second best when it comes to security)
It's very easy to use and might be perfect for what you want to do.

Maybe some day I might need to try to that.. . but I am not sure... will have to think about it some more... it is not necessarily easy to change systems that are already in place and then needing to communicate a new system to anyone who might be in need of getting the parts..

I think that Trezor has ONLY been using that for a few years...

BTW afaik:
the reason for 24 words instead of 12 is actually that even if someone knows all words (out of order), your coins are still secure.
If someone knows all words of a 12 word seed out of order, he can brute force the sequence and get your coins.

If I remember it right, back in the days there was no option to put your seed directly into the Trezor so you had to use the keyboard on your computer. The computer didn't know the sequence though, as you were asked to put in the words out of order (for example word 7, 2, 11, etc). But with a 12 word seed someone could know the out of order words via a key logger and steal your coins by brute forcing the order.

That means you could send your 24 words through any compromised communication channel (even post it here).  And as long as no one knows the word sequence, your coins will be fine.

I have used both 12 words and 24 words, and it seems that some of the recent wallets that I generated did not give me options but ONLY gave me 12 words. .but personally, I do prefer 24 words, even though it is a bit more cumbersome.
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September 10, 2023, 09:28:27 PM

Never understood the psyche of people, who are into Crypto for several years and yet ready to do KYC for anything related to Crypto! I mean, why would someone do public registration of a private asset holding is beyond my realm of understanding. Even buying a HW by providing any sort of personal info kills the whole purpose of Crypto.

There were lines of people scanning their eyeballs for pennies for that Worldcoin project. Most of them don't really care that much.

I actually felt pretty sad about these people. Retina scan will make all these people vulnerable to many more scam in coming days. It might lead to outright identity theft.
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September 10, 2023, 09:30:35 PM

Mine are nice classic guns.

2 barrel

One is an old L.C. Smith.

very nice

What happened to your hat?

Hahahahaha

Thanks for asking.

He (Phil that is) needs to make some money.. because he sold too  many coins below $20k and failed to buy some of them back because he had too many hardons for buying US Treasury IBonds when the BTC price was $16k-ish... so he's realizing that he has to make some money to make up for his mistake so he doesn't have to eat cat food when he turns 72.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I decided to do a signature campaign for a few months. I will be using the funds to donate to { talk img } and to run a promo contest  for difficulty prediction.

I did the difficulty contest for year giving away 6 or 7 btc back in the day.

Also I really want to be able to help fund [talk img] which all of bitcointalk gets to use.

That's what she said.

guessing game:

where do you guys think will be the lowest coming low that will never be revisited again?

I'm undecided... Taking FTX + Gox coins distribution and Blackrock manipulation into account my guesses are 22k-23k range or 19k-20k range.

These ranges are not even close to givens, so they deserve percentages.. When talking about down from here, the only given is actual current price as the lowest that it will get..

So how to exactly assign percentages to the various possibilities of down?  got to figure the overall odds first, so it is probably right around 50% that $24,756 (from mid June) is not our local bottom.... or might we want to use today's low of $25,588  or the low of $25,333 from September 1.

So we gotta start from some kind of a given recent low as a kind of primary threshold that might be apart from the current price of $25,878... that is the ONLY guaranteed low since it is currently happening...

So the first threshold would go somewhere between the current price and some kind of a recent low whether today or maybe using the September 1 low of $25,333.. so there could be ways of assuming the current range to include $25,333 or even $24,756 from mid June. but that might be stretching it.. but for the purpose of your exercise of predicting and/or assigning odds, that $24,756 as the lower end of the current range could be a good number for practical purposes.. and so whether that breaks or not might not really be greater than 50%, even though we are floating around the bottom of the don't wake me up zone (which happens to be one that I just made up from $25k-ish to $35k-ish).

So if we use your numbers, then the number between $23k and $24,756 needs to be accounted because it should not be automatically presumed that we are going to get down into the $22k to $23k range.

And then you left out another range between $20k and $22k, so there's gotta be some odds for that range being the bottom too,

And yeah, you listed $19k to $20k, so then the final range that you missed out would be below $19k, that could not be zero percent odds.

Oh no, you are not wanting to assign odds, you are wanting to trap us into sorcerer wannabe predictions.  Not going to lure me into that, even though I might be wanting to bet someone if they are giving unduly high odds to either of your two selected ranges of between $19k to $20k or to $22k to $23k.. It might be already bettable as is.. if you are suggesting that either of those two ranges separately or together have higher than 50% odds, I might even be willing to bet you 50/50 that the first one won't happen, and I might even be willing to give you greater odds about the second one not happening... but devil is in the details of any bet, and you are not saying anything too outrageous, yet, besides merely leaving out some price ranges and seeming to assume that the odds of either one of them is greater than 50%    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


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September 10, 2023, 09:31:16 PM

guessing game:

where do you guys think will be the lowest coming low that will never be revisited again?

I'm undecided... Taking FTX + Gox coins distribution and Blackrock manipulation into account my guesses are 22k-23k range or 19k-20k range.



I think it will go to 21k range but there is possibility of going below 20k range.
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September 10, 2023, 09:35:28 PM
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I have been half ass thinking about the future, please correct me if I’m wrong here but this is the first time since bitcoin’s inception that the halving is happening in global economic hardship(not recession but maybe depending on how you define it). After the last recession in ‘07 we had a large increase over time, a period of “bullish” trends in financial markets. I’m wondering if this happens again could this mean much higher tops over the next few cycles. Ultimately 1btc = 1btc but I wonder will the fiat off ramp amount be alot more than we are thinking about. I see thread posters speculating 6 digit prices but I wonder could we be on the road to 7 digit figures(wildest dreams) in the next couple of halvings buoyed by new bullish trends in financial markets as the global recovery starts its run.
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September 10, 2023, 09:38:02 PM

guessing game:

where do you guys think will be the lowest coming low that will never be revisited again?

I'm undecided... Taking FTX + Gox coins distribution and Blackrock manipulation into account my guesses are 22k-23k range or 19k-20k range.



I think it will go to 21k range but there is possibility of going below 20k range.

Is the ftx news real I did a bit of research and got into a circle jerk of sources quoting each other, specifically on the holdings. I’m cautious on this tbh.
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September 10, 2023, 09:59:26 PM
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I have not been able to find any actual verifiable source for what the actual amounts and assets are, nothing but a circle jerk of unverified reports quoting each other.

Is the ftx news real I did a bit of research and got into a circle jerk of sources quoting each other, specifically on the holdings. I’m cautious on this tbh.
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September 10, 2023, 10:01:19 PM


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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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September 10, 2023, 10:02:25 PM

i was promised up
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September 10, 2023, 10:09:48 PM
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I have not been able to find any actual verifiable source for what the actual amounts and assets are, nothing but a circle jerk of unverified reports quoting each other.

Is the ftx news real I did a bit of research and got into a circle jerk of sources quoting each other, specifically on the holdings. I’m cautious on this tbh.

Can you please stop speaking like me before I speak it’s mildly annoying. Grin Joking aside didn’t see your comment but glad someone else looked into it at least:-)
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September 10, 2023, 10:40:34 PM

I have been half ass thinking about the future, please correct me if I’m wrong here but this is the first time since bitcoin’s inception that the halving is happening in global economic hardship(not recession but maybe depending on how you define it). After the last recession in ‘07 we had a large increase over time, a period of “bullish” trends in financial markets. I’m wondering if this happens again could this mean much higher tops over the next few cycles. Ultimately 1btc = 1btc but I wonder will the fiat off ramp amount be alot more than we are thinking about. I see thread posters speculating 6 digit prices but I wonder could we be on the road to 7 digit figures(wildest dreams) in the next couple of halvings buoyed by new bullish trends in financial markets as the global recovery starts its run.

In '08 there was a pretty stupendous crash of all of the USA connected financial markets, and so far we have not gotten such a crash.. and so people seem to be expecting an actual crash of various US related markets - and sure every crash is not necessarily going to play out in the exact same ways, and a crash would probably be healthy overall.. but then there still is a question how bitcoin will react with that in terms of whether there will be a short-or-medium period that bitcoin might crash along with the various markets and at the same time whether any bitcoin recovery might end up being stronger than the various other markets, which surely seems a great possibility for any who is understanding that bitcoin is already not exactly correlated with various equities markets, so there seem to be inevitable periods in which that decoupling is shown prior to it going to back to coupling again.. and still to be seen the extent to which "this time might be different."

Surely, I have frequently asserted that there is no need for me to get rich as fuck in bitcoin in order to be happy or even to be able to see that I am already benefitting greatly by being in bitcoin, even if it goes flat from here.. but at the same time, the odds of flat from here or even down from here don't seem too high and so bitcoin does continue to seem to be such a great place to have some value.. without necessarily overdoing it to such a level that is not really needed, and likely so many normies would advantage themselves from being in bitcoin and just getting off of zero.. .. which is where so many people are and if they are more aggressive in the 1% to 5% allocation levels, which many of us would still consider to be quite modest (and even whimpy) allocations then it still seems quite difficult to even source whimpy levels of BTC supply without some crazy-ass uppity moves in the BTC price.

i was promised up

You better go tell ExpHorizon's grandma that you do not appreciate her being too nice to you, because it seems to be giving you false hopes.

#justsaying

I have not been able to find any actual verifiable source for what the actual amounts and assets are, nothing but a circle jerk of unverified reports quoting each other.

Is the ftx news real I did a bit of research and got into a circle jerk of sources quoting each other, specifically on the holdings. I’m cautious on this tbh.

Can you please stop speaking like me before I speak it’s mildly annoying. Grin Joking aside didn’t see your comment but glad someone else looked into it at least:-)

Well, about 15 hours ago, fillippone specifically gave some kind of a source to specify more than vagueness in regards to what is being said.. is that part of the circle-jerk of sources?  Maybe it is not going to happen, but if the sources are bad or there are similar sources that are bad, wouldn't it be better to point those out.. even some guys in here (not likely to be this here cat because I hardly give too many shits, except maybe on the margins**) are going to be able to look into the matter further.

**It seems that several things that i have read suggested that these sales if they take place would likely be more of an impact on shitcoins rather than bitcoin, and yeah maybe we have to see if the first set of liquidations take place in order to see if there are affects on the markets and if there are follow throughs for 17 weeks, that would be interesting to see actually playing out, if we are able to see in the prices of coins getting liquidated and even though a decent amount seems to be related to illiquid shitcoins .. and according to the chart that fillippone linked a potentially currently unknown quantity of unknown coins too that is in the "mixed" category.. so "mixed" could end up being a pretty BIG deal for some coins since we don't know what they are, and some of that "mixed" category might end up being higher quantities of bitcoin than had been previously speculated.

It looks like FTX will be selling $200,000,000 worth of crypto every week for the next 17 weeks… This will start next week. This downward pressure on the market will likely hold prices somewhat in check until the end of the year. I’d imagine once this is behind us (and the mtgox coins are distributed) it should be the final hurdle before launch.
This is the situation:

Source
Nothing too worrying for BTC.
Not so sure speaking of shitcoins
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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September 10, 2023, 11:00:03 PM


i was promised up


You better go tell ExpHorizon's grandma that you do not appreciate her being too nice to you, because it seems to be giving you false hopes.


in someones words or another: what, me worry??

ergo: zero fucks given
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September 10, 2023, 11:08:01 PM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

It looks like FTX will be selling $200,000,000 worth of crypto every week for the next 17 weeks… This will start next week. This downward pressure on the market will likely hold prices somewhat in check until the end of the year. I’d imagine once this is behind us (and the mtgox coins are distributed) it should be the final hurdle before launch.

how much BTC do they hold?


I hope this is still accurate  Cheesy

FTX's Bitcoin Balance Plunges to Just 1
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/08/ftxs-bitcoin-balance-plunges-to-just-one

3.4 billion dollars worth of my math is correct.

My statement also assumes that Binance won’t become insolvent when a drop happens. I think that is the biggest concern for the crypto market right now. A run on BNB has the potential to take Bitcoin below $20K.
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September 11, 2023, 12:01:22 AM


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