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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (8.9%)
8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
Total Voters: 124

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26490996 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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September 29, 2023, 06:01:19 PM


Explanation
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September 29, 2023, 06:17:44 PM

Beautiful near-doji on the hourly earlier today, with long, equal wicks.
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September 29, 2023, 06:30:40 PM

She said yes!

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September 29, 2023, 06:33:30 PM

@BritishHodl
I think it's irresponsible for a parent to recommend their Children buy property vs own #Bitcoin  now.

Most people do this because "it's what worked for me".

When my Dad's family immigrated to the United Kingdom, they bought a home for £4,200 in 1971.

They got extremely lucky as they bought that house just as Nixon decided to start exporting inflation around the world in the USA.

That house is now worth roughly £500,000.

A Compound Annual Growth Rate of 9.63%.

To maintain that trajectory of rise, the same house would need to be worth £59.6m in 2075.

Every generation has it's asset, and this generation's is #Bitcoin .

Not Real Estate.
https://x.com/britishhodl/status/1707405912648872056

The real estate stories are similar everywhere. I also have relatives who bought property at very cheap rate back in 1970 - 80 in capital city and prices of that property are too high now.

May be one day our descendant may say that there ancestors (we people) were lucky to buy bitcoin at 26k$ in 2023.
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September 29, 2023, 06:33:58 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

Was curious how Coinbase's 5% APY on USDC worked, so I bothered to look into it, how they could be paying that much out in a world with low equity yields.

Now it all makes sense. They back it with the purchase of short term U.S. treasuries yielding 5.5%.

That means that once the Fed starts lowering rates, bye bye that APY on USDC.

Money will flood out of USDC and start chasing higher btc prices.

And looks like the USDC total market cap has already fallen from ~60B to now ~25B in just a half year.

Will stay away for now.
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September 29, 2023, 06:49:22 PM
Last edit: September 29, 2023, 07:28:34 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), d_eddie (1), danadc (1)

Was about to post in another thread about price predictions/bull run etc, when I thought the last all time high and inflation. Here are the numbers I used, but essentially just taking inflation into consideration with no rise in new money entering the market the next Ath would be $79,844. It gave me pause for thought alot if the predictions threads are guessing 100k to 130k, it seems a bit wimpy to me and not the explosive bull run I hear about so much.

Ath-$69045
Rate of Inflation(annual)- 3.7%
Method Compounding(annual)
Time- 4yrs(eg 2021 -2025)

What do you all think?

Of course debasing of the dollar is an ongoing factor that could end up misleading our assessment of both relative value and even the creation of meaningful (or real dollar) price performance targets

It is more difficult to account for these matters in shorter-time frames and it could become confusing to figure out whether we are in profits or how much we are in profits relative to other places in which we could have put our monetary value (as contrasted to where to put our time and our energies too.. which may be more realistic measurements).  

We know that in the longer term we will likely be ahead, even accounting for dollar debasement, yet it still might not be easy to measure in the shorter term, but in the longer term we might be able to figure out some of it in terms of goods and services or other quality of life matters.
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September 29, 2023, 07:01:16 PM


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September 29, 2023, 07:19:03 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

@BritishHodl
I think it's irresponsible for a parent to recommend their Children buy property vs own #Bitcoin  now.

Most people do this because "it's what worked for me".

When my Dad's family immigrated to the United Kingdom, they bought a home for £4,200 in 1971.

They got extremely lucky as they bought that house just as Nixon decided to start exporting inflation around the world in the USA.

That house is now worth roughly £500,000.

A Compound Annual Growth Rate of 9.63%.

To maintain that trajectory of rise, the same house would need to be worth £59.6m in 2075.

Every generation has it's asset, and this generation's is #Bitcoin .

Not Real Estate.
https://x.com/britishhodl/status/1707405912648872056

I also agree with what you say, things are very different today, the roots are good, yes, but things are going at a different pace, what do I do by Buying houses when you can buy bitcoin and if you buy Bitcoin It is a guarantee of comparing the 4 houses with a hotel. What I think is that things can suffer devaluations, but bitcoin will never devalue.

It's true when you say  "that's what worked for me " and they keep trying to bring that to the new generations, the new Generations have opportunities that our parents didn't have , you just have to know how to find them , the best is Bitcoin .

Quote
The argument for BTC being deflationary is based on the fact that the supply of BTC is limited and inherently incorporates a disinflationary measure called halving. The halving event cuts the rewards for miners, affecting BTC’s scarcity and reducing inflation over time. As the mining reward continues to fall over time, it becomes increasingly difficult and expensive to mine BTC.

The 21 million cap on supply means once all coins are mined, no more are added to the market. Once BTC’s hard cap is reached around the year 2140, inflation stops because no new coins will be added into circulation. Finally, as the adoption and demand for BTC continue to increase due to rising external demand and its internal disinflationary mechanics, its price could continue to increase. BTC can hedge against inflation due to its internal mechanics, which gradually reduce its inflation rate.


Source: https://cointelegraph.com/explained/inflationary-vs-deflationary-cryptocurrencies-explained

I like how they explain it there, just being deflationary will always be more valuable than another stock or Real Estate.
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September 29, 2023, 07:27:08 PM

I wonder what sparked this pump. Any ideas?

It's just the beginning as we are about to enter the 4th Quarter, 2023 and the last quater of the year prior to bitcoins halving is always bullish.

I was referring to the quick pump we saw yesterday, so I was looking for some news that could have triggered it.
I think you're talking about a general evolution trend on the quarterly time scale. I merited your post anyway.

According to Cointelegraph liquidations and Institutional interest can be the cause of the pump that we have seen yesterday.

And, I believe that such pumps are showing us that soon we are going to enter pre-bull run phase and after a few months we will most probably enter bull run and see so many pumps of higher intensity.

The Sec is also going to accept Bitcoin ETF's sometime during the bull run which will further increase the intensity of the bull run.

Source
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September 29, 2023, 07:44:23 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)

I’m feeling more bullish in the last few days than I have since the 2021 bull run. I think we are going to start a slow ascent soon as the halving closes in. Everything is in place for another round of massive, life changing money in the next 2 years.


Let’s eat!

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September 29, 2023, 07:51:10 PM

@BritishHodl
I think it's irresponsible for a parent to recommend their Children buy property vs own #Bitcoin  now.

Most people do this because "it's what worked for me".

When my Dad's family immigrated to the United Kingdom, they bought a home for £4,200 in 1971.

The same case is here, father my grandfather got almost 50 acres kilometers of agricultural land here in Pakistan for what I'm not aware of.. But as per current market rates here, the land is worth around  $16k to $18k, (As the land is area-specific & fertile). They really invested a lot in real estate as the market was not that developed in my area and now most of Uncles own the land in the main city area (A small city near Lahore). Haha, But to be honest as it was a joint family system now after too many separations my father got almost 3.5 arc.. My father knows that investing in Real Este is not very profitable now and He considers DCA on every salary..

Every generation has it's asset, and this generation's is #Bitcoin .

Not Real Estate.
https://x.com/britishhodl/status/1707405912648872056

Got it, we are in Bitcoin's age ..  I'm optimistic that a significant number of people will come to realize this fact during the ongoing bull run but at that time a small portion will be leftover for accumulation.. #we_are_not_late #earlyadopters...
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September 29, 2023, 07:51:53 PM

I’m feeling more bullish in the last few days than I have since the 2021 bull run. I think we are going to start a slow ascent soon as the halving closes in. Everything is in place for another round of massive, life changing money in the next 2 years.


Let’s eat!



I feel same as you and I believe that this time the bull run will make many of us rich once again.  Wink I'm 100% optimistic about the coming bull run and surely that will happen in 2 years from the start of 2024.
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September 29, 2023, 07:58:43 PM

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After basically the whole #Microsoft #Azure cloud was hacked (see list of related sources on https://karl-voit.at/cloud/ ), the first follow-up incidents went public caused by missing containment actions:

60,000 emails were stolen from 10 #USA #StateDepartment accounts
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/chinese-hackers-stole-60000-emails-us-state-department-microsoft-hack-senate-2023-09-27/

If you didn't understand until now: basically EVERYTHING at Microsoft got hacked and Microsoft can't (or won't) get rid of the intruders. Everything authenticated by Microsoft is tainted. Even #Windows auth.

https://graz.social/@publicvoit/111147782761723981



agriculture and vaccines are more important to Bill nowadays...
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September 29, 2023, 08:03:24 PM


Explanation
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September 29, 2023, 08:05:01 PM

...
I'd argue that having futures without spot is worse than not having futures at all.
...

you probably have a point there
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September 29, 2023, 08:15:50 PM

Was about to post in another thread about price predictions/bull run etc, when I thought the last all time high and inflation. Here are the numbers I used, but essentially just taking inflation into consideration with no rise in new money entering the market the next Ath would be $79,844. It gave me pause for thought alot if the predictions threads are guessing 100k to 130k, it seems a bit wimpy to me and not the explosive bull run I hear about so much.

Ath-$69045
Rate of Inflation(annual)- 3.7%
Method Compounding(annual)
Time- 4yrs(eg 2021 -2025)

What do you all think?


clever idea.

I figured that the 2020 to 2021 1/2 ing and bull were great distorted by covid.

the 2015 to 2016 pre build up to the 1/2 ing  we got to 700 usd right before the 2016 1/2 ing this is about 60% of the prior ATH in 2013

so 60% of 69k = about 41.4k toss in a bit of inflation we could be close to 45k in late march . 

2016 700 become 20k. = 28.5k

2024 45k becomes ?  1.2825 million

If the 2016/2017 is true and is 2020/2021 is false due to covid and china fucking around with the April runup nov double top.

1,285 million would be impressive indeed

it is my high number pick for next sunup.
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Explanation
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September 29, 2023, 09:41:23 PM

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After basically the whole #Microsoft #Azure cloud was hacked (see list of related sources on https://karl-voit.at/cloud/ ), the first follow-up incidents went public caused by missing containment actions:

60,000 emails were stolen from 10 #USA #StateDepartment accounts
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/chinese-hackers-stole-60000-emails-us-state-department-microsoft-hack-senate-2023-09-27/

If you didn't understand until now: basically EVERYTHING at Microsoft got hacked and Microsoft can't (or won't) get rid of the intruders. Everything authenticated by Microsoft is tainted. Even #Windows auth.

https://graz.social/@publicvoit/111147782761723981



agriculture and vaccines are more important to Bill nowadays...

I'm not sure you are grasping the severity of this.
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Explanation
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September 29, 2023, 10:07:16 PM

Waaay off topic, but still replying

Well, no. Nazis are Nazis. Any attempt to equate someone else to Nazis just deludes what Nazis did.

Are you saying that a Nazi ally is not Nazi?

Quote
"Russians, the strongest allies of Nazi Germany...Finland asked Germans for help, which they provided and attacked Russia", wait what  Huh so you're saying that Germans attacked their strongest ally just because Finns asked for it? I'm not even going to touch this one but you seemed to be all kinds of confused.

You're confusing yourself. Where in that sentence do you see me saying that this was the only reason for the attack?

Just being an ally doesn't automatically make you a Nazi, otherwise Japan would be Nazi? Of course there are also Nazi collaborators who directly participated in all of the atrocities and genocide, thats where the lines get blurred and then there are Nazi sympathizer aka Neonazis

You throw out a ridiculous claim (mind you totally unprovoked, there was no mention of Finland at all), and then backtrack with well i never said it was the only reason, technically you never claimed that it was the main reason either...i'm sure it's somewhere there on a spectrum? Yep totally clear, unbiased, objective, truthful position and not an attempt to misleading the weak minds at all.  Roll Eyes




Well, no. Nazis are Nazis. Any attempt to equate someone else to Nazis just deludes what Nazis did.

Right, that's why the correct term "Neonazis" emerged, for Nazi revivalists.
But i would say that "Nazi" is valid as a term for describing descendants and people that kept the ideology (primarily that ideology of a "master race") alive.
While Russia is throwing around the "Nazi" sticker, while they behave almost exactly like the Nazis did. Look at Poland's WW2 history. Russia also keeps saying that the "West" is weak, which implies the Russians are "strong", thus superior to western people, which reflects the concept of a "master race".
Don't make me bring in the war crimes... To say the least.

If i had to choose between "dictatorship" of either the "West" or "East", i would choose the "West" without a split second to think about.



Quote
"Russians, the strongest allies of Nazi Germany...Finland asked Germans for help, which they provided and attacked Russia", wait what  Huh so you're saying that Germans attacked their strongest ally just because Finns asked for it? I'm not even going to touch this one but you seemed to be all kinds of confused.

Name your source, if you want it to be taken serious.




There's a clear line between talking about committing a crime (be it for a shock effect, rebellion stage etc...), and actually committing a crime. Like there are idiots dressing up and worshiping satan by killing some chickens, getting 666 tattoos or whatnot, but that's all mainly for show and attention. So if you weren't actual part of that machine, you're just a Nazi "wannabe", revivalists, sympathizer, Neonazi etc. Not to say that Neonazis and the holders of their ideology are not dangerous, but nevertheless i believe in most instances the distinction is warranted.

"While Russia is throwing around the "Nazi" sticker, while they behave almost exactly like the Nazis did. Look at Poland's WW2 history. Russia also keeps saying that the "West" is weak, which implies the Russians are "strong", thus superior to western people, which reflects the concept of a "master race"."

And that's where I loose you, I'm sorry but that's a truly a moronic statement. It totally ignores the fundamental intent and scale. You have to consume a lot of propaganda and perhaps need a lobotomy to believe that saying that "someone is weak" means you believing that everyone else is genetically inferior to your master race and thus must be systematically eliminated. To follow that to its logical conclusion, we either need to delude what Nazis did, and convince everyone that Hitler wasn't that bad and was thinking that other nations just had weaker moral values, or to convince everyone that Russian ideology consists of murdering millions solely based on their race, trying to find the final solution to the western question Huh by building factories to systematically exterminate westerners as well as use eugenics and conducting medical experiments on the western nationals? Both of which would require large consumption of illegal substance to even consider. Ultimately what you're attempting to pull here is a slippery slope fallacy, Russians did bad, Hitler also did bad, thus Russia=Nazi.

Go ahead and bring up alleged current war crimes but then you'll have to show how they're "almost exactly" like Nazi war crimes. Just don't expect to be taken seriously, if your scale of comparison for "almost exactly" is off by a factor of 10.000x.

If i had to choose between "dictatorship" of either the "West" or "East", i would choose the "West" without a split second to think about.
Well that's rather rhetorical, but here's more interesting question meant to underline your idiotic claim of "almost exactly like the Nazis did". What would you choose between "Third Reich" and current "Putin's Russia", this is also rhetorical for most population unless of course you consider yourself to be pure aryan whatever the fuck that might be.

As far as the source, if you read more carefully you'll notice that i was just quoting coolcoinz ridiculous claim, so you have to ask him to name his sources and decide if you want to take him seriously.

...2 months later Russians, the strongest allies of Nazi Germany, attacked Finland and forced it to give away a part of their country.
Finland asked Germans for help, which they provided and attacked Russia....
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