Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

One million per coin.
How many Buddy Blockers,

I actually understand that buddy is not yet self-aware, but I wonder if buddy is aware enough to have at least 7 digits available for such million per coin.

27907 to 28024

that is a very tight range buddy.

Yeah.. more or less floating around the 200-week average price.

Who would-a-thunk? 

And what does the 200-week moving average mean?


Anyone?


Anyone?



 

I'confused 200-week mean $200k, somehow that is connected to filled?

Oh my....

I am surely disinclined to give you the answer.. which is actually a pretty basic concept.. so I will just give you a hint.

Look at this chart:   https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

It shows the 200-week moving average, and so what do you see in the chart?

Another hint:  The stock to flow model uses the 200-week moving average too.. but the stock to flow model has some other data in their too in order to make some claims about bitcoin.

I believe that JJG write long posts because he have enough information to share with us and he might be a firm believer of sharing is caring thing.

I write long posts because I feel that I don't have enough time to write shorter posts.

That's a pretty bold statement man!

It's not even my statement.  I stole it from Mark Twain.


“I didn't have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.” -Mark Twain Twain

and apparently many other people made similar kinds of statements.. so I am sure that I got it from one or more of them.
>>>>>
"This famous quote has been attributed to many people—-Mark Twain, Winston Churchill, even Bill Clinton, for starters. Once a clever phrase like this comes into the language, a lot of folks start using it, and their readers reasonably figure they made it up. But according to the website quoteinvestigator.com, the first to use it was the 17th century French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal. "<<<<<<<<<<

https://www.quora.com/Who-wrote-the-quote-If-I-had-more-time-I-would-have-written-you-a-shorter-letter

I agree that someone like you can be very busy but still you give time to the forum which an amazing thing. We love your posts and once again I would say that they aren't only long but long with a lot of information. JJG, I'm sure if someone goes through all of your posts then that person can write an awesome book, especially related to economics and Bitcoin speculation.

Some people do like to do those kinds of things.. They focus on certain people and maybe they have some kind of a theme too.. and frequently they focus on more famous people, but you never know, the internet and these kinds of forums are not exactly long lasting in nature, and even in the past 10 years or so we have seen mainstream media become more and more reliant upon quoting sources from various internet forums.

by the way, I thought that you were going to write such book involving me, phillip and maybe you might find some others and do some comparison and contrasting.. ..   There still needs to be some kind of a need for an interesting hook.. so we are likely not interesting enough on our own.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[d_eddie]

You've got to slow down
Or give us bigger numbers
Five is outrageous





#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[vapourminer]

You've got to slow down
Or give us bigger numbers
Five is outrageous

thanks buddy thats swell
but four is not the number
that we had in mind

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[danadc]

The month of December is very interesting, they say that Octoberbree is the most bullish month of the year, is it true? The scenarios that are being presented can trigger a great impact on the price of BTC:



I like what they are predicting:

Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.

Original Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/war-cpi-28k-btc-price-5-things-bitcoin-week

and some experts are saying that Bitcoin is much better than digital gold:

Still, bitcoin has an edge over gold as the private keys can be memorized, which eliminates the risk of confiscation, the report said.

“Even today, storing assets in the form of gold has not only become unfashionable in the digital age, but comes with significant restrictions when crossing borders,” wrote Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, adding that “bitcoin offers a solution to this dilemma, enabling the swift and relatively inconspicuous movement of value across borders.”

“Therefore, considering the current state of technological developments, bitcoin’s primary roles are likely as a store of value akin to gold and a speculative financial asset,” the report added.

Original Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/10/09/bitcoin-is-better-than-digital-gold-matrixport/

Well for those who have doubts, here are clearer signs that we must protect our money , and for me the solution is bitcoin, I respect many who want to invest in real estate, in banks, but Bitcoin is the best option , it is a new era for having money and Increasing it more and more, many events are Happening , there should be no doubt.

[JayJuanGee]

Found an interesting reference:
https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1692614510559809865
This shows that, so far, bitcoin CAGR did in fact decline with each halving:
174% CAGR over the last 13 years
Since 2012 halving: 108%
Since 2016 halving: 71%
Since 2020 halving: 45%

Who knows what will happen in the future, but I feel that my prior thesis of 25% CAGR starting from roughly 2024 halving and going forward(or from $100K) makes sense.
As such, Pantera's Dan Morehead with his "more than double every year going forward" prediction might be very wrong, even though I would like him to be right:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxc1E6uBC3c

According to Dan, we would get to $1 mil/btc in roughly 5-5.5 years or so aka 2028-2029.
25% CAGR from 2024-2025 (or from 100K) predicts $1 mil/btc in 2035-2036.
Let's see what happens.

We ONLY need a 4% CAGR out of traditional asset management theories (or the withdrawal rate for passive income)... I was kind of thinking that we might be able to count on right around a 12% CAGR for the coming 10 years or more or even perhaps longer.. but hard to project beyond something like 10 years - which is 3x traditional rates.. but surely I would not want to try to employ such a system of withdrawing 12% per year if it did not continue to show in the data.. including that currently I am using the 200-week moving average for my bitcoin valuation chart including how much I expect the BTC value based on the 200-week moving average to move up on average per year with kind of an anticipated decreasing slope in terms of how fast the 200 week moving average is going up..

It still is good to see that kind of CAGR historical data, because none of us really know the future, even though from time to time we should try to make sure whatever our expectations (and hopes, and even plans for future cashing out periods. maintenance or whatever you want to call it.. assuming that you might not necessarily just sit on your bitcoin.. like actual wealthy people do.. but normies do not necessarily follow exactly the same practices) happen to be, line up with real (rather than fantasylandia) data.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ivomm]

https://blockworks.co/news/sec-appeal-grayscale-ruling

Some highlights:
The SEC’s deadline to challenge the decision is Oct. 13. It can seek an appeal to the US Supreme Court — if a certiorari petition is granted — or can request an “en banc” panel of the Court of Appeals to revisit the ruling. Pantera Capital executives said in a September letter to investors last month that the Supreme Court route is unlikely, noting “this case isn’t that important as a matter of law.”

If the SEC chooses not to appeal, the court is expected to issue an order detailing next steps. This could include “instructing the SEC to approve the application, or to revisit Grayscale’s application, in which case the SEC could still reject the proposal on other grounds,” according to a blog post by law firm Winston & Strawn. Compass Point Research & Trading analysts Chase White and Joe Flynn said in a Friday research note that they believe the odds of being granted an en banc hearing or a writ of certiorari are “virtually zero.”

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Sam Kerbage said during a webinar last month that the SEC requesting Grayscale to submit a new proposal and rejecting it again for a different reason is “the most likely path.”

“Although our base case remains that the SEC will begin approving the ETFs by early 2024, we admit it’s only by slim margin given Gensler’s persistent anti-crypto stance,” White and Flynn wrote in their Friday note. “Still, we think that spot BTC ETF approvals are almost a certainty within the next two years given our view that the SEC has virtually no chance of winning in court when all is said and done.”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Lucius]

https://blockworks.co/news/sec-appeal-grayscale-ruling

Some highlights:
The SEC’s deadline to challenge the decision is Oct. 13. It can seek an appeal to the US Supreme Court — if a certiorari petition is granted — or can request an “en banc” panel of the Court of Appeals to revisit the ruling. Pantera Capital executives said in a September letter to investors last month that the Supreme Court route is unlikely, noting “this case isn’t that important as a matter of law.”

If the SEC chooses not to appeal, the court is expected to issue an order detailing next steps. This could include “instructing the SEC to approve the application, or to revisit Grayscale’s application, in which case the SEC could still reject the proposal on other grounds,” according to a blog post by law firm Winston & Strawn. Compass Point Research & Trading analysts Chase White and Joe Flynn said in a Friday research note that they believe the odds of being granted an en banc hearing or a writ of certiorari are “virtually zero.”

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Sam Kerbage said during a webinar last month that the SEC requesting Grayscale to submit a new proposal and rejecting it again for a different reason is “the most likely path.”

“Although our base case remains that the SEC will begin approving the ETFs by early 2024, we admit it’s only by slim margin given Gensler’s persistent anti-crypto stance,” White and Flynn wrote in their Friday note. “Still, we think that spot BTC ETF approvals are almost a certainty within the next two years given our view that the SEC has virtually no chance of winning in court when all is said and done.”

Didn't we read until a few days (months) ago that the chances are only increasing and that they amount to even 75% by the end of this year, and even 95% by the end of next year - and now even 2 years are being mentioned? I understand that everyone has their own speculations, but I already wrote before that I believe that with the entry of BlackRock into this game, things simply have to change.

Otherwise, Gensler could find himself under a rock, figuratively of course

[jcojci]

The month of December is very interesting, they say that Octoberbree is the most bullish month of the year, is it true? The scenarios that are being presented can trigger a great impact on the price of BTC:

I guess October was changed to Uptober

I see that in some posts.

Well, let's hope December is a bullish start to the end of next year

But the question is, can Bitcoin price reach $30k?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Who is John Galt?]

Is the regulation good? Because I don't agree, BTC was made to not pay anything to governments, banks or something similar, because it is not fiat money, having BTC is to manage our money as we want, not to declare to governments or banks.

Regulation is inevitable. As long as the state exists, it will strive to take control of everything it can. In all other cases of regulation, is what the state regulates and what it collects taxes from done by the state? Obviously, in many cases this is not the case.

You are right that Satoshi has created a beautiful thing that does not depend on states or banks because it is decentralized. And the state has no control over the blockchain. But as soon as you spend your bitcoins on something, as soon as you exchange them for fiat money, you enter into a state-controlled space, and in this space the state regulates. Stay in Bitcoin and you can ignore the government for this part.

No, I would have to disagree. In some cases regulation is not good, nor is it inevitable. For example when it becomes completely redundant and serves as "Security Theater" (while being completely unenforceable). All that does is create more bureaucratic nonsense that we have to accept or face punishment.

I bolded two sections I liked and for the most part believe in even though they contradict each other a bit.

If these two statements contradict each other, it is just that a bit. Just because regulation is inevitable does not necessarily make it smart, good, or all-encompassing. I quite agree that the imitation of useful activities in terms of government regulation occurs more often than we would like. But inefficiency does not mean that the state will not try to take control of everything it can, it only means that it will not be able to control everything completely.