Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[1715172858]

1715172858

[1715172858]

1715172858

[1715172858]

1715172858

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

You've got to slow down
Or give us bigger numbers
Five is outrageous





#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

You've got to slow down
Or give us bigger numbers
Five is outrageous

thanks buddy thats swell
but four is not the number
that we had in mind

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[danadc]

The month of December is very interesting, they say that Octoberbree is the most bullish month of the year, is it true? The scenarios that are being presented can trigger a great impact on the price of BTC:



I like what they are predicting:

Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.

Original Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/war-cpi-28k-btc-price-5-things-bitcoin-week

and some experts are saying that Bitcoin is much better than digital gold:

Still, bitcoin has an edge over gold as the private keys can be memorized, which eliminates the risk of confiscation, the report said.

“Even today, storing assets in the form of gold has not only become unfashionable in the digital age, but comes with significant restrictions when crossing borders,” wrote Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, adding that “bitcoin offers a solution to this dilemma, enabling the swift and relatively inconspicuous movement of value across borders.”

“Therefore, considering the current state of technological developments, bitcoin’s primary roles are likely as a store of value akin to gold and a speculative financial asset,” the report added.

Original Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/10/09/bitcoin-is-better-than-digital-gold-matrixport/

Well for those who have doubts, here are clearer signs that we must protect our money , and for me the solution is bitcoin, I respect many who want to invest in real estate, in banks, but Bitcoin is the best option , it is a new era for having money and Increasing it more and more, many events are Happening , there should be no doubt.

[JayJuanGee]

Found an interesting reference:
https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1692614510559809865
This shows that, so far, bitcoin CAGR did in fact decline with each halving:
174% CAGR over the last 13 years
Since 2012 halving: 108%
Since 2016 halving: 71%
Since 2020 halving: 45%

Who knows what will happen in the future, but I feel that my prior thesis of 25% CAGR starting from roughly 2024 halving and going forward(or from $100K) makes sense.
As such, Pantera's Dan Morehead with his "more than double every year going forward" prediction might be very wrong, even though I would like him to be right:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxc1E6uBC3c

According to Dan, we would get to $1 mil/btc in roughly 5-5.5 years or so aka 2028-2029.
25% CAGR from 2024-2025 (or from 100K) predicts $1 mil/btc in 2035-2036.
Let's see what happens.

We ONLY need a 4% CAGR out of traditional asset management theories (or the withdrawal rate for passive income)... I was kind of thinking that we might be able to count on right around a 12% CAGR for the coming 10 years or more or even perhaps longer.. but hard to project beyond something like 10 years - which is 3x traditional rates.. but surely I would not want to try to employ such a system of withdrawing 12% per year if it did not continue to show in the data.. including that currently I am using the 200-week moving average for my bitcoin valuation chart including how much I expect the BTC value based on the 200-week moving average to move up on average per year with kind of an anticipated decreasing slope in terms of how fast the 200 week moving average is going up..

It still is good to see that kind of CAGR historical data, because none of us really know the future, even though from time to time we should try to make sure whatever our expectations (and hopes, and even plans for future cashing out periods. maintenance or whatever you want to call it.. assuming that you might not necessarily just sit on your bitcoin.. like actual wealthy people do.. but normies do not necessarily follow exactly the same practices) happen to be, line up with real (rather than fantasylandia) data.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ivomm]

https://blockworks.co/news/sec-appeal-grayscale-ruling

Some highlights:
The SEC’s deadline to challenge the decision is Oct. 13. It can seek an appeal to the US Supreme Court — if a certiorari petition is granted — or can request an “en banc” panel of the Court of Appeals to revisit the ruling. Pantera Capital executives said in a September letter to investors last month that the Supreme Court route is unlikely, noting “this case isn’t that important as a matter of law.”

If the SEC chooses not to appeal, the court is expected to issue an order detailing next steps. This could include “instructing the SEC to approve the application, or to revisit Grayscale’s application, in which case the SEC could still reject the proposal on other grounds,” according to a blog post by law firm Winston & Strawn. Compass Point Research & Trading analysts Chase White and Joe Flynn said in a Friday research note that they believe the odds of being granted an en banc hearing or a writ of certiorari are “virtually zero.”

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Sam Kerbage said during a webinar last month that the SEC requesting Grayscale to submit a new proposal and rejecting it again for a different reason is “the most likely path.”

“Although our base case remains that the SEC will begin approving the ETFs by early 2024, we admit it’s only by slim margin given Gensler’s persistent anti-crypto stance,” White and Flynn wrote in their Friday note. “Still, we think that spot BTC ETF approvals are almost a certainty within the next two years given our view that the SEC has virtually no chance of winning in court when all is said and done.”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

https://blockworks.co/news/sec-appeal-grayscale-ruling

Some highlights:
The SEC’s deadline to challenge the decision is Oct. 13. It can seek an appeal to the US Supreme Court — if a certiorari petition is granted — or can request an “en banc” panel of the Court of Appeals to revisit the ruling. Pantera Capital executives said in a September letter to investors last month that the Supreme Court route is unlikely, noting “this case isn’t that important as a matter of law.”

If the SEC chooses not to appeal, the court is expected to issue an order detailing next steps. This could include “instructing the SEC to approve the application, or to revisit Grayscale’s application, in which case the SEC could still reject the proposal on other grounds,” according to a blog post by law firm Winston & Strawn. Compass Point Research & Trading analysts Chase White and Joe Flynn said in a Friday research note that they believe the odds of being granted an en banc hearing or a writ of certiorari are “virtually zero.”

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Sam Kerbage said during a webinar last month that the SEC requesting Grayscale to submit a new proposal and rejecting it again for a different reason is “the most likely path.”

“Although our base case remains that the SEC will begin approving the ETFs by early 2024, we admit it’s only by slim margin given Gensler’s persistent anti-crypto stance,” White and Flynn wrote in their Friday note. “Still, we think that spot BTC ETF approvals are almost a certainty within the next two years given our view that the SEC has virtually no chance of winning in court when all is said and done.”

Didn't we read until a few days (months) ago that the chances are only increasing and that they amount to even 75% by the end of this year, and even 95% by the end of next year - and now even 2 years are being mentioned? I understand that everyone has their own speculations, but I already wrote before that I believe that with the entry of BlackRock into this game, things simply have to change.

Otherwise, Gensler could find himself under a rock, figuratively of course

[jcojci]

The month of December is very interesting, they say that Octoberbree is the most bullish month of the year, is it true? The scenarios that are being presented can trigger a great impact on the price of BTC:

I guess October was changed to Uptober

I see that in some posts.

Well, let's hope December is a bullish start to the end of next year

But the question is, can Bitcoin price reach $30k?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Who is John Galt?]

Is the regulation good? Because I don't agree, BTC was made to not pay anything to governments, banks or something similar, because it is not fiat money, having BTC is to manage our money as we want, not to declare to governments or banks.

Regulation is inevitable. As long as the state exists, it will strive to take control of everything it can. In all other cases of regulation, is what the state regulates and what it collects taxes from done by the state? Obviously, in many cases this is not the case.

You are right that Satoshi has created a beautiful thing that does not depend on states or banks because it is decentralized. And the state has no control over the blockchain. But as soon as you spend your bitcoins on something, as soon as you exchange them for fiat money, you enter into a state-controlled space, and in this space the state regulates. Stay in Bitcoin and you can ignore the government for this part.

No, I would have to disagree. In some cases regulation is not good, nor is it inevitable. For example when it becomes completely redundant and serves as "Security Theater" (while being completely unenforceable). All that does is create more bureaucratic nonsense that we have to accept or face punishment.

I bolded two sections I liked and for the most part believe in even though they contradict each other a bit.

If these two statements contradict each other, it is just that a bit. Just because regulation is inevitable does not necessarily make it smart, good, or all-encompassing. I quite agree that the imitation of useful activities in terms of government regulation occurs more often than we would like. But inefficiency does not mean that the state will not try to take control of everything it can, it only means that it will not be able to control everything completely.

[Crypto_I.N]

TIL News / Politics mods here definitely don't like shitposting.

To Infinity and Beyond 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com