As discussed before Bitcoin price has broken the upper channel trend line resistance. Must confirm it as a support to see more upward price movement. If confirmed, the channel breakout target is $47k this will not happen in one shot but eventually.
I doubt that there is any one agreed-to channel, and personally I am sticking with $25k to $35k as the don't wake me up zone, even though many of the folks (including yours truly) may well have been quite woken up by how much time we were spending at the lower end of such zone... It was getting scary for a while so even though technically the BTC price did not really end up falling outside of the zone (except a few wee bitty DOWNity wicks), we ended up in some scary times...
so if we might be considering $25k to $35k as a kind of zone.. then we have returned to the middle of such zone.. why get excited when in the middle of a zone. even though surely it feels better than being in the lower end of such price zone.... at the end of the day, it is still more or less the middle.. Yawn, yawn.
Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very good position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.
The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.
In the way, that you started the post, I had presumed that you were selling larger percentages, but whatever you are doing seems somewhat reasonable even though you do seem to be contradicting some of your earlier posts, but I think that part of the reason for some of the contradictions did end up being due to some of your mistakes in regards to how you had been managing your BTC stash... so how can any of us judge what others are doing with any real conviction.. and sure through the years I have seen quit a few bitcoiners taking profits way too much and too soon.. and sometimes they do continue to post and other times they get arrogant about it and other times they just end up fading away.. and surely, it can be difficult to know how to minimize the use of such BTC especially during periods like this in which the BTC price might be up a wee bit, but really it is still ONLY less than 10% of the distance away from the 200-week moving average
which is currently right around $28,254.... so historically, who could really imagine selling much if any BTC at or around the 200week moving average and not regretting it. maybe this time is different and BTC prices will not go up from here?. .but I still have my doubts.
Nobody should feel sad buying a home with bitcoin. I bought my house with fiat from selling bitcoin in the last bull run. Isn’t that why we got into bitcoin, to make life better? What do we gain by HODLING until death, not enjoying some of the fruits of our labor?
I will sell more bitcoin in 2025 and buy multiple rental properties also.
It surely is a good thing to have some diversification in assets and/or income, and even though there can be some pain in the ass aspects to both residential property and also rental property, I could think of worse investments (and/or ways to diversify) to the extent that we are actually choosing to invest with our bitcoin proceeds rather than consuming on the well known iconic items of HLB.
Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very prestigious position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.
The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.
Best of luck in your new home/location/work. I can fully relate, as I'm in a very similar situation. Will almost mirror your moves, but not just yet... It's not related to the price of Bitcoin, it's just not the right time for me. But it's close, and the price of Bitcoin will
hopefully almost certainly be much higher by that time, which will make things much smoother and the decisions much easier to make.
We only live once, there's likely no afterlife, so we'd better make the most of it while we can. Our stash will be worth nothing to us if we end up old, sick and unable to enjoy it.
+1 WOsMerit.
Even though BTC prices are not guaranteed to go up from here, it is most likely better to be selling on the way up rather than either on the way down or in kind of forced situations.
Surely selling at around $30k is much better than it would have been to be selling anywhere below $22k in May/June 2022 and for nearly 8 months thereafter... and surely even though the BTC price has not really gotten that much above the 200 week moving average it still seems to be better to be attempting to take the 200-week moving average into account and also attempting to time such sells in ways that are likely to create the need to have to sell fewer cornz.. but again, as we know there are no guarantees in any of this.. so a plan to sell "later rather than now" could end up blowing up in our faces.. so none of us can really know for sure... even though I have not yet published my ideas (in the form of a chart) about various ways to consider how much BTC to potentially be able to sell in accordance with the 200-week moving average, we likely have some pretty decent ideas that having BTC prices even within 30% to 50% of the 200-week moving average might still be a bit bottom-ish-y.. and currently we are less than 10% away from the 200-week moving average, so for me it seems difficult to get too overly excited about selling BTC in this price arena.. even though surely for some folks it may well end up being practical in terms of not getting too greedy about the profits that they ight already be in and also the place in which they might be in their lives..
Seller exhaustion?
Let’s hope so and we start to rally as the halving approaches.
@PentoshiPretty key update today as I've tracked this for some time
Stable coin bleed stopped as discussed earlier in October, and has not made a new low now in over 3 months. It's even essentially had a very small uptick
It could be a sign that capital is finally done exiting. Another positive development
https://x.com/pentosh1/status/1715847424982360176Pretty much all up from here. Any dips at this point are a massive buy. Next year, and the following, will be pretty damn awesome. Actual big money will be coming in this time, the events of the world are now aligning for the greatest BTC bull run of all.
Sometimes things are simple and play linearly, but bitcoin typically goes up the most when nobody 'expected' it, like a $12 to $250 surge (20X) in the first four moths of 2013 or $1k to $20K in the last 8-9 months of 2017 (20X again). Now, there is a lot of expectation, which is bullish, of course, but not unexpected. I don't expect more than 140-150K during this cycle, call me conservative.
If you add following low/high after 2017 that would be from $3k to $69k is another 20x. Current low is $15k x20 = ~$300k range.
Will it happen again? Probability is plausible because all those ETF's coming is a powerfull pump force to be reckoned with.
Of course the more X in our expectations the more difficult it is to count upon it.. so start with 2x (we are here now), there are several possibilities prior to getting to 20x.. including 3x, 5x, 10x and 15x, but then there are also possibilities of going higher such as 30x, 50x 80x, 100x and more, and maybe no matter what we do, there are likely ways to not get too dependent (or excited) upon any one of the specific Xs playing out, but I could also imagine having various BTC sales amounts already planned for at each of the different stages along the possible X-way - including but not limited to 3x, 5x, 10x, 15x, 20x, 30x, 50x 80x, 100x and more - and still not be worried about running out of BTC because maybe even if BTC prices get to 100x or more, I still might have more than 60% (or maybe even more than 80%) of my BTC and I will still be happy of having had made some shavenings of BTC from my BTC holdings along the way. If we know how much BTC that we have at this particular time, we likely already are able to project out our various BTC sales amounts at any of those various X-ening BTC price points along the way (if such BTC price threshold passings were to end up playing out).
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