Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

388xx seems ok but looking for 40404

43,210 - could be fun too, on the way up to 45,678.90

388xx seems ok but looking for 40404

Noooo!  Lol, good one!

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..

Buddy, why didn't you remind me that November only has 30 days?  What's that?  You were too busy starting to lift?  My bad.
The data we have for November; 1 day is 1 second.  Be careful.
https://i.imgur.com/Lw0AyPd.gifv

You have come up with quite a few variations.....

Amazing.

Bitcoin Miner AntPool to Refund Record $3M BTC Transaction Fee
AntPool said it would verify the identity of the sender if they sign an on-chain message via another bitcoin transaction using the same message – which will prove ownership.
https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/11/30/bitcoin-miner-antpool-to-refund-record-3m-btc-transaction-fee/

On one of the bitcoin-related podcasts (I cannot recall which one), I had heard that there were some issues regarding how that transaction had started out as stolen funds.. I am not sure if it is true, but it makes it possible to refund the fees but not the body of the transaction that was already stolen.. which was something like 55/56 BTC.. like mentioned in that quoted article.. so then sometimes there could be questions about if refunding the fees could end up going to the person who stole the money or the original owner.. and sometimes it might be a bit difficult to sort out which is which (or who is who).

[Torque]

World economies going down in flames, due to complete garbage monetary policies.

Major banks on the verge of bankruptcy.

SBF and CZ convicted, going to jail.

Bitcoin breaking out to upside.

Stocks breaking out to upside.

PMs breaking out to upside.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs all approved from Jan-Feb, no later than March 2024.

Wall Street says no more Fed rate hikes, greater than 80% chance of rate cuts starting by March 2024.

Purely coincidence?

Sure, sure...I guess everything in life now is just one massive 'coincidence'.    

[JayJuanGee]

If #bitcoin surpases the $40k mark,

Then let's meet at $100k.

Choose to believe or not!
$BTC

Source.
I strongly believe that @JJG can explain it deeply and very well, what is waiting for the next range because he has a lot of experience in this matter.

Sure... I can say, been there done that.  But it was such a quickie.. so it becomes difficult to have had any sustainable experiences when it happens so quickly like that.

More sustainable might be another story.

Many of us likely already realize that when the BTC price goes up quickly, then there can be questions regarding if the buy support can keep up with how fast the BTC price is going up.  It seems that in the last month and a half, the BTC price has been grinding up.. grinding and grinding, so it would seem that the buy support should be able to keep up, yet it cannot really be know.

Are we in a kind of grueling punishment mode in which the shorts continue to get placed, but they keep getting punished?

The fence sitters and the "wating for the dippers" are getting punished too, no?

real funny 387xx is the wrong direction

There is a resistance @38800, a bit of struggle there, but I expect a break to 389xx.

Wow!         You have high expectations Stepstowealth.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Negotiation]

If #bitcoin surpases the $40k mark,

Then let's meet at $100k.

Choose to believe or not!
$BTC

Source.
I strongly believe that @JJG can explain it deeply and very well, what is waiting for the next range because he has a lot of experience in this matter.

Sure... I can say, been there done that.  But it was such a quickie.. so it becomes difficult to have had any sustainable experiences when it happens so quickly like that.
~
Are we in a kind of grueling punishment mode in which the shorts continue to get placed, but they keep getting punished?

The fence sitters and the "wating for the dippers" are getting punished too, no?

Well agreed, Bitcoin every month every day every week makes more new stories continue but do not say some predictions quickly,  I see the news and share my opinions but I'm not market analysis.

Other modes I do not agree with someone's advice that 'Process loan' and buy bitcoin. it's highly risky for investment in the fund. 

[OgNasty]

Free the tatas. It does feel like this. The market wants to go up over $40K but something is holding the line at $39K for dear life. I imagine it will break in time as there is clearly plenty of upward pressure on the price currently. I don’t think we spend another week below $39K. There is just too much demand at the moment.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

.......
Are we in a kind of grueling punishment mode in which the shorts continue to get placed, but they keep getting punished?

The fence sitters and the "wating for the dippers" are getting punished too, no?

Well agreed, Bitcoin every month every day every week makes more new stories continue but do not say some predictions quickly,  I see the news and share my opinions but I'm not market analysis.

You can still have opinions regarding either what you believe might be happening and if you might believe that there are certain kinds of ways of characterizing what may be our current BTC price dynamics situation.

Otherwise, if we have no opinions then why would we be here?

I recall that in some of my training in which I had to give reports to a boss.  One of the main ingredients after providing the facts, the analysis and the various conclusions was to provide some kind of a recommendation regarding what to do.. Is it it a yes or a no, and surely there is no way to get away with a maybe since even a maybe would need to lean either one way or the other... because in the end there is frequently a need for some kind of action rather than just presentation of the information.

The same is likely true in life.  Each of us are actors up[on the information that we share and analyze, and even if our recommendation might be "stay the course, and keep doing what you have been doing." then we are still accounting for what it was that we were doing and maybe why we should stay the course.  Or maybe we might recommend:  "stay the course, but if you see x, y z, then go to the right but if you see a, b or c then you better go to the left."

So my point is that some kind of recommendation is necessary in regards to any presentation of information.. so even if we provide a link to an article, we should easily be able to say I agree with this, this and that, but I think that the other thing is pure bullshit... There is some value in those kinds of presentations, whether you are merely in agreement with a lot of others or if you are sorting your own path, and probably many people have opinions that deviate a bit from the mainstream in one way or another, but who the hell is going to know unless you say something.

I remember when I first started posting on the forum, sometimes I would have an idea about a post, and then I would hesitate to say what I think about the topic, and then later I realized that even if someone ends up posting something similar to me, there usually are going to be some variations, so it's not like I need to read through the remainder of the posts before my opinion should be expressed.. and part of the benefits of just responding is that you have taken a stance.. even if someone later might end up posting something similar, which surely is not as common as many of us might have had believed it to be.

Other modes I do not agree with someone's advice that 'Process loan' and buy bitcoin. it's highly risky for investment in the fund. 

Personally, I have no problem with using loans in order to speculate on something like BTC, and yeah it is a form of front-loading of the investment.   One of the important things is to have ways to pay back the loan from sources other than BTC.. so that the repayment of the loan should not be dependent upon the thing that you are betting on.. otherwise you may well be fucked if the investment moves against you.  So in other words, there is a need to be prepared for either price direction, even when taking a loan... and if you are not able to take the loss (if the BTC price were to move against you), then you should not take the loan... otherwise, if you have planned through it, then you can still take the loan even if it ends up costing you more than you would have had made in the event that you had just bought BTC regularly rather than front-loading your investment with a loan.

Free the tatas. It does feel like this. The market wants to go up over $40K but something is holding the line at $39K for dear life. I imagine it will break in time as there is clearly plenty of upward pressure on the price currently. I don’t think we spend another week below $39K. There is just too much demand at the moment.

Hasn't this been true about every $1k since $31k?  or did we start at $32k?  Anyhow, it seems that the last six weeks have been this way every thousand up has been a grind... at least so far.

[OROBTC]

...

JJG wrote (a comment at the bottom of a lot of text) a few pages back (reply 655021 on WO page 32752):

At this rate, I have my doubts that Saylor is even going to stop at 210k BTC, even though that would be a nice round number of BTC to have and maybe even to maintain.. so if he goes beyond 210k BTC, then he could keep buying more but then saying that he and/or his company will never go below 210k BTC... so then after getting above that number he could declare that he has enough.. but Saylor no does not think like a normal person.. so probably he will not be able to stop accumulating and amassing more and more bitcoin."

THAT, amigo mio, is someone who Thinks Like A Giant.  "Giants" typically think differently.  Also, many Giants know what they're doing, and they do what they want (eg Elon Musk).  Finally, it is often smart to "follow in the footsteps of Giants."  It's a good way to think and make money in the longer term, think Generational Wealth.

I'll not mention where such Giant thinking is discussed at more length as it is not BTC-related.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

...JJG wrote (a comment at the bottom of a lot of text) a few pages back (reply 655021 on WO page 32752):

At this rate, I have my doubts that Saylor is even going to stop at 210k BTC, even though that would be a nice round number of BTC to have and maybe even to maintain.. so if he goes beyond 210k BTC, then he could keep buying more but then saying that he and/or his company will never go below 210k BTC... so then after getting above that number he could declare that he has enough.. but Saylor no does not think like a normal person.. so probably he will not be able to stop accumulating and amassing more and more bitcoin."

THAT, amigo mio, is someone who Thinks Like A Giant.  "Giants" typically think differently.  Also, many Giants know what they're doing, and they do what they want (eg Elon Musk).  Finally, it is often smart to "follow in the footsteps of Giants."  It's a good way to think and make money in the longer term, think Generational Wealth.

I'll not mention where such Giant thinking is discussed at more length as it is not BTC-related.

You cannot leave "us" hanging like that.    

Pray tell.







When is the next Mensa meeting?

[Negotiation]

Personally, I have no problem with using loans in order to speculate on something like BTC, and yeah it is a form of front-loading of the investment. One of the important things is to have ways to pay back the loan from sources other than BTC.. so that the repayment of the loan should not be dependent upon the thing that you are betting on.. otherwise you may well be fucked if the investment moves against you.  So in other words, there is a need to be prepared for either price direction, even when taking a loan... and if you are not able to take the loss (if the BTC price were to move against you), then you should not take the loan... otherwise, if you have planned through it, then you can still take the loan even if it ends up costing you more than you would have had made in the event that you had just bought BTC regularly rather than front-loading your investment with a loan.

Agree and well, I think some people face the problem is money management.

Pray tell.



When is the next Mensa meeting?

It is time to present (what you want) from the 'lord', 'Allah', 'God' etc, the name is different for different religions, but the place is one.

[ivomm]

"[Bitcoin spot ETF approval] window is officially January 5 to January 10," Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart posted to X.

"Really this means that any potential approval orders are going to come on either Monday, January 8, Tuesday, January 9, or Wednesday, January 10. Mark your calendars people."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/12/02/mark-your-calendars-date-revealed-as-huge-17-trillion-bitcoin-etf-countdown-sudden-begins-heralding-ethereum-xrp-and-crypto-price-chaos/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cmacwuz]

Thar she blows. A big buy and our collective confident bullishness is validated, hopefully the early rumblings of the next big one. Not sure how much of a sell the news the ETF announcement will have, but long term the on-ramps will be solidified for an enormous legacy wealth transfer. Flight to quality

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $39,356

New yearly high, Honey Badger is starting to stir.

Long may this gradual, upwards climb continue.

[BobLawblaw]

That's sorta kinda a nice little schwing in the upwards direction.

$40k soon. Verr niec.

[Out of mind]

I think Next 72 hours BTC $40k will reach..!!!

It's possible 

The price of Bitcoin did not reach $40k dollars due to a small shock. But maybe in the future, the price of Bitcoin will touch $40k dollars.
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Looks like $36k is this cycle's Vegeta price.

$36000 / 4 = $9000

Coincidence? Probably.

Hopefully, he's already dead. Again.

in that case next cycle ATH might be at 4x 69k = 276k...   I'd say that's acceptable..

Definitely. I'd be more than happy with a 4x gain every Halving. Some (most?) of us here would call that extremely conservative, borderline bear-talk. Saylor would suggest a doubling / year, which is 16x / Halving. In an ideal world, maybe. In the real world (China, pandemic, Ukraine, Israel, FTX, SEC, AI destroying the world, etc.), 4x / Halving (i.e., sqrt(2) = 1.4x / year) seems quite reasonable (to me at least), and more than any other investment can provide.

I surely am questioning if 4x every 4 years is really sustainable into the future. which seems that it would be a doubling every two years.  Surely we are seeing a lessening of the rate of increase, and spot price does not seem to be the place to be making those kinds of measures.. and look at the actual numbers that put into my entry-level fuck you chart that show the changes in 6-month increments.  I did not have that actual data in there before, and I just updated it on November 23rd.  

I am not even saying that the pattern of two years up two years down has to be exactly repeatable into the future, but we should be trying to be somewhat reasonable in terms of not expecting a different pattern unless it actually starts to show on the chart and yeah there could be some blow-out upside results, but they are not even closed to guaranteed to happen even if they might have some decently good odds in favor of some short term grand-face-ripping breaks to the upside.

Part of the reason that I made my whole fuck you status chart even more conservative on November 23rd, and I could not even wait until the end of the month when the actual number for the 6 month period is realized (which is probably going to be around $29,051) is because my earlier chart (that I had already made more conservative with more of downwardly sloping upside curve rather than more of a straight-line upward curve is because it seems like both of my last two 6-month period had overshot by around 10% each time... that is a lot of overshooting for 6 months... so I personally would rather undershoot than overshoot...so in that regard, my adjustments are seeming to be more likely to be having to make the numbers higher every 6 month period rather than lower.

Think about each of the three last 6 month periods, they were each ONLY a bit over 10% if we were to average them out...

and maybe they were aberrations in regards to the crazy-ass shit that was contributing to BTC under performance in the last year and a half including the BTC price being extendedly below the 200-week moving average for quite a bit of the last 18 months... so in that regard, sure, I am more than willing to accept that overshooting in the opposite direction may well be likely, but still I don't think straight-line or graduating curve is going to capture the reality as well as the way I did my chart, even if I likely ended up lowballing my numbers a bit more than necessary based on my own desires not to be considered as someone who gets things wrong to the upside.. and I think that my numbers are still pretty bullish.. and especially if we end up having several overshoots, then we just end up adjusting as we go and maybe we adjust future numbers or maybe we just keep my numbers as conservative, even if there might be some short term bullishness in the numbers.

Actually 50% per year for the next one or two cycles seems more than reasonable even though they are higher than my current numbers.

Now that I am talking through some of this, I am feeling that I overdid my SOMA chart too much.. but still I think it is better to stick with it and maybe updated it if the next 1 to 2 six month periods start to show way higher than 15% to 16% numbers then I might update all of the numbers accordingly.. but I don't even feel like I am being wishy-washy about it because it seems to me just a matter of how much is the appreciation, and have always been more conservative in my personal expectations about BTC prices, so frequently even when we are doing shitty as fuck, I am thinking that we are doing way better than I expected, even though 2015 was a bit of a bummer and also having so much time below the 200-week moving average in the last 18 months was a bit of a bummer too. but still our past performance of even having the 200-week moving average to have been as high as it was - which still was probably getting pushed up from the 2017 performance and the lack of a drop in 2018 and the bullish bear year that we had in 2019.. and all of those factors surly pushed up the 200-week moving average by the time we got to 2021 less spectacular bull and 2022's ongoing revelations of scandals that have even been dragging into 2023. but none of us are complaining about 2023.

I'm conservative by nature, I tend to underestimate, and my post was just some very crude guesstimate on price progress, based on my personal experience (and the Vegeta part was Crystal Ball^TM material, and a fun justification for my $9k vs. $36k price point relation -- then & now). I don't disagree with anything you're saying above, which is an even more conservative viewpoint than mine. It makes sense to expect a slow-down in terms of Bitcoin price appreciation. I guess, this is partly the reason why PlanB's popular stock-to-flow model became quite problematic recently, to the point of being deemed a failure. The Bitcoin code may be open and exact and relatively easy to understand, analyze and model (4-year cycles, coin production halving / cycle, etc., etc.), but when it is coupled with the social/human element, it becomes a stochastic, even chaotic system, which can diverge in both the micro- and the macro-scale. Luckily (or, by good design), the underlying robustness of the code has shown time and time again that it is the dominant factor in Bitcoin's long-term performance, and this fact is one of the reasons why I'm very confident that we'll be seeing good things happening in the near future and beyond. Qualitatively speaking, I expect to see further price appreciation, worldwide adoption, ETFs, regulation (hopefully in a healthy way).

Quantitatively speaking, things aren't so easy to handle, unless you happen to be Merlin the Magician or Uri Geller. 2x, 1.4x, 1.1x / year are all fun to suggest and expect, and PlanB's S2F graph sure looked like a stairway to heaven, except that the steps ended up being somewhat shorter than expected, and log scale is brutal and can bite you really hard... For someone who bought his/her coins at an average price of under $2,000 / coin, it would be super-greedy to even complain about Bitcoin's performance, as his/her profits would currently approach 20x in a time span of, let's say, 8 years. That's an average price appreciation of about 1.45x / year, which explains where my suggestion, in my post above, of 1.4x / year comes from. All this assumes a willingness to wait for at least one full cycle (two cycles in my numerical example), while accumulating (via lump sums or DCA, depending on fiat availability and/or preference). Again, this is not an exact science, but it is still science, and certainly much more science than stonks or other more traditional investments that allow for human/government intervention, manipulation, inside knowledge, etc.

My golden rule: "buy when you can, sell when you must." Has served me well, and has given me the needed time and patience to reach that 1.4x / per year. Will it slow down? Will it speed up? I can't say. What I know is that no one has ever lost by investing in Bitcoin, given sufficient maturity (at least one cycle). And that's that.