Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

1-High volatility is irrelevant to the fees, why would you leave money on the table? What you bring up is the discrepancy in tracking between ETFs
2-This is more relevant, but all this means is that GBTC discount has been dropping from -1,5% down to -0,27%  (as of Jan 19) if you click on Premium/Discount tab you get a nice chart explaining GBTCs "outperformance in last 5 days". Unless you believe GBTC will suddenly start trading at a premium your remaining upside is limited to 0,27% if it ever trades exactly at it's NAV (which i personally doubt). At 1,5% spread in fees (other ETFs are currently 0% fees teaser rate) you recoup 0,27% in about 2 month of hodling.

To ivomm's point, high GBTC fees just lead to reshuffling between ETFs not net ouflows from all ETFs. If we assume GBTCs outflow of BTC10k/trading day, it would take almost 3 month for BTC566k to escape their GBTC prison. Ratio of cashouts to reshuffle in the outflow is what's the most important here (and subject to much speculation), hoping cashouts are the first ones to bail, so with every week more and more of the outflows would be redirected to other ETFs until inevitably the outflow will completely cease.

Nobody knows what will or will not happen...I wouldn't venture a guess one way or another. My point remains that if you were one of those who sold GBTC for IBIT or FBTC, and did so in an unnecessary haste, especially on day 1, you would be losing a bit of money (most of that loss probably occurred on day one). I would decide what to do on day-by-day basis, but the current trend shows no need to rush it. Peace.

[Biodom]

What do you believe the BTC price is going to be in:

2 weeks? 50k

1 month? 60k

3 months? 50k

6 months? 65k

9 months? 75K added this

1 Year? 100k+

2 Years? 150k+

4 Years? ?

8 Years? ?

12 Years? ?

20 years? ?

50 years? who cares I will be dead

100 years? who cares I will be deader

133 years? who cares I will be 33 years more dead.

O.k.  Fair enough.  <snip>

133 years? $800 million or $900 million to $1.2 billion

The third or fourth generation of bitcoiners (great or great great nieces and nephews in Phil's case, sorry) will own the stars (or at least "small" asteroids, hopefully,   )

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

What do you believe the BTC price is going to be in:

2 weeks? 50k

1 month? 60k

3 months? 50k

6 months? 65k

9 months? 75K added this

1 Year? 100k+

2 Years? 150k+

4 Years? ?

8 Years? ?

12 Years? ?

20 years? ?

50 years? who cares I will be dead

100 years? who cares I will be deader

133 years? who cares I will be 33 years more dead.

O.k.  Fair enough.  <snip>

133 years? $800 million or $900 million to $1.2 billion

The third or fourth generation of bitcoiners (great or great great nieces and nephews in Phil's case, sorry) will own the stars (or at least "small" asteroids, hopefully,   )

I know it sounds outrageous, but the extension of my entry-level fuck you status chart that goes beyond 2074 (that I have not yet published) does project that the 200-week moving average will move over $100 million per coin in around 2108 (that would be $1 per satoshi.. and it also would be a BTC market cap of $2.1 quadrillion, if we presume the existence of 21 million BTC, but at the same time, it is quite likely that a lot of BTC are going to get lost in the next 84 years, and even with that projection, I am ongoingly projecting an increasingly decreasing 200-week moving average rate of appreciation that gets down into the 2% to 3% per year.... yet another problem with the projection is that we have never had money close to as sound as bitcoin, so there surely would be some dynamics that my simplified model is going to end up missing.   .

Sorry to get too fantastical, but I think that my projections are somewhat realistic even though I am trying to talk about earthly wealth and at the same time anticipating ongoing increasing wealth that comes from technological innovations in ways that we might not realize just like we did not realize how much wealth electricity, various transportation innovations or even easier ways to communicate (still not clear if better communication brings more wealth, but surely bitcoin's being able to secure digital scarcity and value attached to information is likely going to cause increased ways for wealth.. but still someone still has to perform work, I would think.  Maybe in the future no one wants to work, but how are they going to get anything? food, housing, services etc.. so yeah, there would still need to be incentives for working... beyond merely trying to rob others of their bitcoin.    

[bitmover]

The 200-week moving average is currently about $30.25k...

Thanks to awesome work by Bitmover now we have a tool where we can instantly see Price of bitcoin vs 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin got a good rebound from 40k$. So there is chance that Bitcoin may move back in the window of 43 - 45k. Let's see what price of Bitcoin will be for next 2 to 3 days and that will give more clarity about where price is heading.

Yes.. thanks to bitmover.. and yes, the site shows the difference between the BTC spot price and the 200-week moving average, and even being able to select it for historical dates.

However, right now (maybe for the last 2-3 days), there has been some kind of glitch in the site, and the site is not registering the inputs on the left side in order to show the outputs on the right side of the portfolio balance values and the monthly authorized withdrawal amounts based on the inputs.

Hey, it's working again. I made a mistake while uploading the files for the last version.! You can check it out.

I will soon add it to the menu of the website

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Fuck you status has nothing to do with Bitcoin or fiat money.

It's all about attitude.

Just stop worrying about money and things.

I did it in 1976. It's actually easy. Just stop worrying.

Sure, sometimes it can get a little dicey but in the long term it'll work out.

Yeah you might have to go for a day or two without eating. Don't worry, you won't starve to death.

Don't be a crybaby. Everything's fine.

[shahzadafzal]

You’re not bullish enough:
- Gold: $12T
- Fiat: $120T
- Art etc: $18T
- Stocks: $110T
- Bonds: $300T
- Real Estate: $330T

Let’s say 5% of this moves into BTC like Fidelity recommends. Using the Bull market multiple of 118:1 from BofA:

$890T x 5% x 118 = $5.2 Quadrillion

$5.2 Quadrillion / 21M #bitcoin   = $250M per BTC in today’s dollars!

BofA: Bank of America analysed that for every $1 that went into #bitcoin  the market cap grew by $118.

If we ignore BofA and based on above total still 1 BTC

$890T / 21 = $42,380,952.38 per BTC in today's dollars

This reminds of Hal Finney 2009’s calculation where he estimated 1 BTC to be $10 Million.

Even 1% of this market can make $423,809.52 per coin.

https://x.com/btc_for_freedom/status/1748830860181180743?s=46&t=EYlgQnpcCaCtcz2k1MwkNg

[El duderino_]

Change of location

Where the dude @
Hoping it’s not to easy this time

OK, a shot in the dark: Madrid.

EDIT: This is a hard one. The modern cobblestones mixed with those aged stone blocks... Could be somewhere in Spain/Italy, maybe France. I'm sure it's somewhere in Europe.

All NO

Pic was taking in the evening

Now I’m writing in the morning

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

New pic

[JayJuanGee]

Fuck you status has nothing to do with Bitcoin or fiat money.

It's all about attitude.

Just stop worrying about money and things.

I did it in 1976. It's actually easy. Just stop worrying.

Sure, sometimes it can get a little dicey but in the long term it'll work out.

Yeah you might have to go for a day or two without eating. Don't worry, you won't starve to death.

Don't be a crybaby. Everything's fine.

My reference seems to be a bit different than what you are describing, including:

1) I am largely referring to a chart that shows how to valuate BTC using $2 million as default entry-level fuck you status.

and

2) The valuation is using the 200-week moving average rather than BTC spot price in order to figure out when you might reach such status in terms of your BTC.

Sure, it is not necessary to have $2 million in BTC and you also could have other sources of income and/or wealth that you might consider,, and surely there are a lot of folks who could pull the fuck you lever with way less than $2 million, perhaps even $500k or even a lot less, yet if we might be considering a western lifestyle, from my point of view $2 million became the new $1 miillion sometime around March 2020 or soon thereafter.

And in the end, living within fuck you status should not bre a worry, as you say, as long as you are capable of having your expenses lower than your income, yet there still could be some questions regarding what percentage of withdrawal rate might be sustainable if your just considering BTC or if you might have some other assets involved, since no one should want to return to having to work once they have pulled the fuck you lever - especially they should not want to return to work merely because they failed to sufficiently/adequately calculate how much they need for fuck you status.. and yeah, there could likely be cases in which they actually need way less than they think that they need, and surely I am not going into those kinds of personal discretionary matters or even saying it is easy or not easy since guys are going to have to decide for themselves anyhow whether they have reached it and if they fuck up, don't come crying to me.. go see Jimbo instead, since he told you to do it and it doesn't matter if you are ready or not, everything will work out...    ..

Maybe another key concept is being able to live off of growth (so profits) rather than eating into principle of the nestegg, which is part of the key to having sustainability in your stash size, especially if you might not know how long you might need to live off of the income from whatever the corpus of your investment is that you have saved.

Another side of financial freedom could have to do with wanting to potentially keep a higher standard of living, and maybe in some of those cases more than $2 million would be needed, and there have been several WO members who have made those kinds of claims, and I have even heard some folks proclaiming that $1 million had turned to $8 million, which seems a bit much to me, yet some folks want to live with higher levels of ongoing conspicuous consumption than others.. which is up to them regarding how long that they have to work in order to get to that status or if they will ever get there, even with the help of of such a pristine and appreciating asset such as bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[FinePoine0]

New pic

Wow 😮
What a great floor, like a chess playing field.

Great regrets, if I had.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

New pic

Welcome to Atlantis, The Palm, Dubai!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All credit to ChartBuddy

~snip~
New pic

Welcome to Atlantis, The Palm, Dubai!

Wow!  Looks like you might be a winner.   Can't find the red carpet, but they might only roll that out for the Dudes among us. 
Nice Chihuly