Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

I'd prefer using exospheric.
The bigger the dip the stronger the recovery.
2022 dip is a proof of that
Still surprises me why i barely feel the dip compare to how i was in the future
I still hate seeing red color though.
In 2022 dip, i thought lady luck had a personal vendetta against me.

The bigger the dip, the bigger the recovery.. .

that is a strange view of bitcoin and contains a kind of presumption that bitcoin's price slope is inevitable, which surely I question how much something like that can be relied upon - even though we likely understand that there is a certain power that comes with digital scarcity in a kind of asset class that never previously existed.. so that does likely lend to a certain amount of UPpity inevitability, but still I question about magnitude, time and various set backs, even though the price has a lot of ongoing UPpity price pressures.. even when there are various attempts to manipulate and to attack, but if from time to time there are needs to produce the coins (or to show that you actually have them) .. or even distrust in others holding your coins, then it becomes a lot harder to not enter into risks if you don't have the coins that you claim to have....

What does it mean?

A kind of stair-step chasm between the "this is fine" doggie and his coffee?

[WatChe]

Just came across this picture while browsing Facebook and thought it's worth sharing.
Those who are in there 30s or 40s and doing job must realise that aspect and those who are retired can tell its true or not.


Image from Facebook.

My wife will remember how hard I worked at mining BTC.

I remember how hard she worked at her job. She is retired.She worked 1980 to 2012.

Do my wife’s former bosses remember how much time she gave them nope.

Will my mining partner’s care about the time i put in from 2018 to 2024. Maybe one of the three will care in twenty years.

So the sign has some value.

It's about maintaining balance between family life and work. Life is short so we must enjoy it as much as we can. There are people around who spends too much time in offices or in business giving less time to family, that scenario must be avoided. If we ignore our kids while they are young then they will ignore us while we need them in old age.      

Our kids are dead so they won’t remember.

Sorry to hear that. That's painful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

The 200-week moving average is currently about $30.25k...

Thanks to awesome work by Bitmover now we have a tool where we can instantly see Price of bitcoin vs 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin got a good rebound from 40k$. So there is chance that Bitcoin may move back in the window of 43 - 45k. Let's see what price of Bitcoin will be for next 2 to 3 days and that will give more clarity about where price is heading.

[JayJuanGee]

The 200-week moving average is currently about $30.25k...

Thanks to awesome work by Bitmover now we have a tool where we can instantly see Price of bitcoin vs 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin got a good rebound from 40k$. So there is chance that Bitcoin may move back in the window of 43 - 45k. Let's see what price of Bitcoin will be for next 2 to 3 days and that will give more clarity about where price is heading.

Yes.. thanks to bitmover.. and yes, the site shows the difference between the BTC spot price and the 200-week moving average, and even being able to select it for historical dates.

However, right now (maybe for the last 2-3 days), there has been some kind of glitch in the site, and the site is not registering the inputs on the left side in order to show the outputs on the right side of the portfolio balance values and the monthly authorized withdrawal amounts based on the inputs.

[El duderino_]

Change of location

Where the dude @
Hoping it’s not to easy this time

[Ambatman]

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

I'd prefer using exospheric.
The bigger the dip the stronger the recovery.
2022 dip is a proof of that
Still surprises me why i barely feel the dip compare to how i was in the future
I still hate seeing red color though.
In 2022 dip, i thought lady luck had a personal vendetta against me.

The bigger the dip, the bigger the recovery.. .

that is a strange view of bitcoin and contains a kind of presumption that bitcoin's price slope is inevitable, which surely I question how much something like that can be relied upon - even though we likely understand that there is a certain power that comes with digital scarcity in a kind of asset class that never previously existed.. so that does likely lend to a certain amount of UPpity inevitability, but still I question about magnitude, time and various set backs, even though the price has a lot of ongoing UPpity price pressures.. even when there are various attempts to manipulate and to attack, but if from time to time there are needs to produce the coins (or to show that you actually have them) .. or even distrust in others holding your coins, then it becomes a lot harder to not enter into risks if you don't have the coins that you claim to have....

Maybe its poor usage of word
What i meant was despite how huge a dip would be
Bitcoin recovers bigger (reference 2022-early dec 2023)

Change of location

Where the dude @
Hoping it’s not to easy this time

A place that has that structure.

[Hueristic]

[/url]

Change of location

Where the dude @
Hoping it’s not to easy this time

Somewhere with chicks, poker and booze?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

I'd prefer using exospheric.
The bigger the dip the stronger the recovery.
2022 dip is a proof of that
Still surprises me why i barely feel the dip compare to how i was in the future
I still hate seeing red color though.
In 2022 dip, i thought lady luck had a personal vendetta against me.

The bigger the dip, the bigger the recovery.. .

that is a strange view of bitcoin and contains a kind of presumption that bitcoin's price slope is inevitable, which surely I question how much something like that can be relied upon - even though we likely understand that there is a certain power that comes with digital scarcity in a kind of asset class that never previously existed.. so that does likely lend to a certain amount of UPpity inevitability, but still I question about magnitude, time and various set backs, even though the price has a lot of ongoing UPpity price pressures.. even when there are various attempts to manipulate and to attack, but if from time to time there are needs to produce the coins (or to show that you actually have them) .. or even distrust in others holding your coins, then it becomes a lot harder to not enter into risks if you don't have the coins that you claim to have....

Maybe its poor usage of word
What i meant was despite how huge a dip would be
Bitcoin recovers bigger (reference 2022-early dec 2023)

You are probably not completely wrong - but it is just a weird thing to say, and you might realize that some of us, including yours truly, sometimes get lured into these kinds of arguments about semantics.

I sometimes get worked up when members post various conclusions and opinions about which way bitcoin is going or how much it is going there without any kind of explanation regarding how they arrived at such conclusions, but a lot of members do those kinds of things, and also talk in terms of black and whites, so it leaves them open for criticism, even if many times in the real world people do tend to predict the future in those kinds of ways, and if someone asks you:

What do you believe the BTC price is going to be in:

2 weeks?

1 month?

3 months?

6 months?

1 Year?

2 Years?

4 Years?

8 Years?

12 Years?

20 years?

50 years?

100 years?

133 years?

If people who are somewhat knowledgable about bitcoin are willing to attempt such price prediction, they will tend to give fairly narrow answers..and it is likely going to be more and more difficult to give a specific number for each of the dates, the further you go out, so they would more likely give a range.  Surely these are not easy, and surely some of us might feel like throwing up our hands, or even asking why such questions even matter...

I probably would ONLY give answers in terms of my latest entry-level fuck you status chart (which attempts to project the 200-week moving average or the BTC bottom price), but at the same time, the latest entry level fuck you status chart that I have published on the forum ONLY goes up to 2074 (50 years), even though I have one on my private Excel spreadsheet that goes 133 years to 2157. .. but probably more and more difficult to have very much confidence the further out that any of us attempts to project, even if we might provide formulas (or attempt to show our work) for how we might have had arrived at such projected numbers.

Another difficulty might be in regards to how you are pricing matters because I attempt to suggest that my own projections are in line with today's dollars or maybe a reasonable inflation rate of 2% to 4%, but the fact of the matter is that we likely are not going to be living in such a world of such low inflation numbers, so there may well be some other kinds of goods, services and/or commodities that we might resort to pricing our longer term forward projections... shorter term projections should not have as much of the debasement problem, even though we do live in seemingly problematic times to the extent that moneys like bitcoin are putting in check and calling into question the ongoing debasement of various fiat currencies and the seemingly out-of-control debt-based valuations of the status quo financial system.

Oh and short term might be even more difficult than long term, even though we can start with today's price as our base case.. and we could also compare today's price with the 200-week moving average in order to have some kind of an attempt to project - as well as where we are in the 4-year cycle and maybe have some other ideas about both stock to flow ideas also how BTC price might relate to what seems to be exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (the 7 outlined by Trace Mayer).

[DaRude]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

1-High volatility is irrelevant to the fees, why would you leave money on the table? What you bring up is the discrepancy in tracking between ETFs
2-This is more relevant, but all this means is that GBTC discount has been dropping from -1,5% down to -0,27%  (as of Jan 19) if you click on Premium/Discount tab you get a nice chart explaining GBTCs "outperformance in last 5 days". Unless you believe GBTC will suddenly start trading at a premium your remaining upside is limited to 0,27% if it ever trades exactly at it's NAV (which i personally doubt). At 1,5% spread in fees (other ETFs are currently 0% fees teaser rate) you recoup 0,27% in about 2 month of hodling.

To ivomm's point, high GBTC fees just lead to reshuffling between ETFs not net ouflows from all ETFs. If we assume GBTCs outflow of BTC10k/trading day, it would take almost 3 month for BTC566k to escape their GBTC prison. Ratio of cashouts to reshuffle in the outflow is what's the most important here (and subject to much speculation), hoping cashouts are the first ones to bail, so with every week more and more of the outflows would be redirected to other ETFs until inevitably the outflow will completely cease.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[psycodad]

What does it mean?

A kind of stair-step chasm between the "this is fine" doggie and his coffee?

Doggie has zoomed out enough and concluded all to be fine here at 41k, despite all the rumours, fears and speculation. This dog is fine with ~41k for the time being.

But I get it and I humbly accept that jojo69 is the only one here around being able to speak in pictures solely and be well understood. And after some re-consideration I may have to admit that possibly it might only make sense to me and myself without further textual explanation of the underlying thought.

[philipma1957]

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

I'd prefer using exospheric.
The bigger the dip the stronger the recovery.
2022 dip is a proof of that
Still surprises me why i barely feel the dip compare to how i was in the future
I still hate seeing red color though.
In 2022 dip, i thought lady luck had a personal vendetta against me.

The bigger the dip, the bigger the recovery.. .

that is a strange view of bitcoin and contains a kind of presumption that bitcoin's price slope is inevitable, which surely I question how much something like that can be relied upon - even though we likely understand that there is a certain power that comes with digital scarcity in a kind of asset class that never previously existed.. so that does likely lend to a certain amount of UPpity inevitability, but still I question about magnitude, time and various set backs, even though the price has a lot of ongoing UPpity price pressures.. even when there are various attempts to manipulate and to attack, but if from time to time there are needs to produce the coins (or to show that you actually have them) .. or even distrust in others holding your coins, then it becomes a lot harder to not enter into risks if you don't have the coins that you claim to have....

Maybe its poor usage of word
What i meant was despite how huge a dip would be
Bitcoin recovers bigger (reference 2022-early dec 2023)

You are probably not completely wrong - but it is just a weird thing to say, and you might realize that some of us, including yours truly, sometimes get lured into these kinds of arguments about semantics.

I sometimes get worked up when members post various conclusions and opinions about which way bitcoin is going or how much it is going there without any kind of explanation regarding how they arrived at such conclusions, but a lot of members do those kinds of things, and also talk in terms of black and whites, so it leaves them open for criticism, even if many times in the real world people do tend to predict the future in those kinds of ways, and if someone asks you:

What do you believe the BTC price is going to be in:

2 weeks? 50k

1 month? 60k

3 months? 50k

6 months? 65k

9 months? 75K added this

1 Year? 100k+

2 Years? 150k+

4 Years? ?

8 Years? ?

12 Years? ?

20 years? ?

50 years? who cares I will be dead

100 years? who cares I will be deader

133 years? who cares I will be 33 years more dead.

If people who are somewhat knowledgable about bitcoin are willing to attempt such price prediction, they will tend to give fairly narrow answers..and it is likely going to be more and more difficult to give a specific number for each of the dates, the further you go out, so they would more likely give a range.  Surely these are not easy, and surely some of us might feel like throwing up our hands, or even asking why such questions even matter...

I probably would ONLY give answers in terms of my latest entry-level fuck you status chart (which attempts to project the 200-week moving average or the BTC bottom price), but at the same time, the latest entry level fuck you status chart that I have published on the forum ONLY goes up to 2074 (50 years), even though I have one on my private Excel spreadsheet that goes 133 years to 2157. .. but probably more and more difficult to have very much confidence the further out that any of us attempts to project, even if we might provide formulas (or attempt to show our work) for how we might have had arrived at such projected numbers.

Another difficulty might be in regards to how you are pricing matters because I attempt to suggest that my own projections are in line with today's dollars or maybe a reasonable inflation rate of 2% to 4%, but the fact of the matter is that we likely are not going to be living in such a world of such low inflation numbers, so there may well be some other kinds of goods, services and/or commodities that we might resort to pricing our longer term forward projections... shorter term projections should not have as much of the debasement problem, even though we do live in seemingly problematic times to the extent that moneys like bitcoin are putting in check and calling into question the ongoing debasement of various fiat currencies and the seemingly out-of-control debt-based valuations of the status quo financial system.

Oh and short term might be even more difficult than long term, even though we can start with today's price as our base case.. and we could also compare today's price with the 200-week moving average in order to have some kind of an attempt to project - as well as where we are in the 4-year cycle and maybe have some other ideas about both stock to flow ideas also how BTC price might relate to what seems to be exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (the 7 outlined by Trace Mayer).

[OutOfMemory]

Change of location

Where the dude @
Hoping it’s not to easy this time

OK, a shot in the dark: Madrid.

EDIT: This is a hard one. The modern cobblestones mixed with those aged stone blocks... Could be somewhere in Spain/Italy, maybe France. I'm sure it's somewhere in Europe.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Well:
1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

1-High volatility is irrelevant to the fees, why would you leave money on the table? What you bring up is the discrepancy in tracking between ETFs
2-This is more relevant, but all this means is that GBTC discount has been dropping from -1,5% down to -0,27%  (as of Jan 19) if you click on Premium/Discount tab you get a nice chart explaining GBTCs "outperformance in last 5 days". Unless you believe GBTC will suddenly start trading at a premium your remaining upside is limited to 0,27% if it ever trades exactly at it's NAV (which i personally doubt). At 1,5% spread in fees (other ETFs are currently 0% fees teaser rate) you recoup 0,27% in about 2 month of hodling.

To ivomm's point, high GBTC fees just lead to reshuffling between ETFs not net ouflows from all ETFs. If we assume GBTCs outflow of BTC10k/trading day, it would take almost 3 month for BTC566k to escape their GBTC prison. Ratio of cashouts to reshuffle in the outflow is what's the most important here (and subject to much speculation), hoping cashouts are the first ones to bail, so with every week more and more of the outflows would be redirected to other ETFs until inevitably the outflow will completely cease.

Everything you said makes sense DaRude, but it seems difficult to presume that it is likely that 10k BTC would be flowing out of GBTC for the next 3 months, and I see what you did there.. is is something like 20 trading days per month.. to get into the ballpark of 200k per month outflows.. and I guess I am having trouble considering that outflows from GBTC would happen that quickly.

One of the things that I think about is the extent to which GBTC clients are in tax deferred accounts in which they have an option to move out of GBTC and into some other product, and surely they also run the risk of up or down BTC price moves while they are moving from one product to another, unless there is a way that the sale and the buy could take place without much of a delay (but I think that some of them have 1-2 day settlements if you were to go from 1 product to another, and I am not clear if there might be faster ways to settle... and I think that the delay has to do with the "in-cash" rather than "in-kind" ways of settling, but I am not sure about my own speculations in that direction.

It seems that I have heard others suggest that a GBTC wind-down could take years to play out, and it could well be the case that Grayscale is o.k.. with a wind-down, and they also may well be lowering their fees in GBTC, but they also might offer a lower fee product in which the funds could move into... and surely I am getting out of my depth in regards to as much as I feel that I know about some of the possible ways that GBTC would have had already thought about these kinds of matters when they choose to keep their fund at 1.5% rather than going lower, and they likely were gambling on some switching costs that would allow GBTC to continue to milk their current clients for a while.

What does it mean?

A kind of stair-step chasm between the "this is fine" doggie and his coffee?

Doggie has zoomed out enough and concluded all to be fine here at 41k, despite all the rumours, fears and speculation. This dog is fine with ~41k for the time being.

But I get it and I humbly accept that jojo69 is the only one here around being able to speak in pictures solely and be well understood. And after some re-consideration I may have to admit that possibly it might only make sense to me and myself without further textual explanation of the underlying thought.

Well thanks for gong through the process of explaining.  It makes more sense now, even though there is a bit of a social faux pas to have to 'splainin jokes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

What do you believe the BTC price is going to be in:

2 weeks? 50k

1 month? 60k

3 months? 50k

6 months? 65k

9 months? 75K added this

1 Year? 100k+

2 Years? 150k+

4 Years? ?

8 Years? ?

12 Years? ?

20 years? ?

50 years? who cares I will be dead

100 years? who cares I will be deader

133 years? who cares I will be 33 years more dead.

O.k.  Fair enough.  I suppose I should plug in my own ideas (in a timely way), since I provided the initial framework.  And I am going to list the projected 200-week moving average price and then I am going to presume a range that is somewhere above the 200-week moving average maybe right around 40% above the 200-week moving average....so I will warn in advance that these numbers are pretty conservative.. even though they do get pretty big too... since there is a certain amount of power in compounding.  

Am I cheating by using my chart to get my 200-week moving average base?  I don't know.  

I do think that we should be striving to use the various tools in front of us, and maybe you have somewhat forced me into considering how much of an ongoing upwardly draw upon the 200-week moving average should we consider the BTC spot price to have, and for now, and for the purpose of this post, I am going to ballpark my estimates, somewhat and stick with between about 20% and 60%, even though it may well be higher than 60% in the near future and it may gravitate down to 10% or less in 50, 100 and/or 133 years.

2 weeks? $30,650     or $35k to $55k

1 month? $31k   or $35k to $55k

3 months? $33k   or   $35k to $55k

6 months?   $36k  or $40k to $55k

9 months? (time for a baby)  $40k or $80k to $120k

1 Year? $45k or $80k to $120k

2 Years? $65k or $120k to $300k

4 Years? $96k or $120k to $300k

8 Years? $168k or $200k to $400k

12 Years? $350k or $400k to $600k

20 years? $1 million or $1.2 million to $1.5 million

50 years? (I am likely to be dead too.. but I still care for the purpose of this projection)  $11 million or $12 million to $14 million

100 years?  $213 million or $240 million to $280 million

133 years? $800 million or $900 million to $1.2 billion