Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048

Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Yea....so what if others pick it up and more.
This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance).
I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying.

As of 19th GBTC had BTC566,973 in the fund, the claim that they lost BTC18,3k today, and the days isn't even over, is hard for me to believe but would be nice to see, pull that band-aid off already! Where the 534 000BTC number came from i couldn't follow at all   percentage of dormant bitcoin in GBTC would be interesting to speculate on, but they've been seeing average outflows of about BTC12k per trading day, so at this rate about 46 more trading days until they hit 0.

And that's the root of the problem, market doesn't believe that others are picking it up and more

Bloomber
Crypto Funds Saw Outflows Last Week After Debut of Bitcoin ETFs
Global demand for cryptocurrency investment products eased last week, with funds seeing $21 million in outflows, according to a report from CoinShares.

This doesn't line up with my numbers, but after reading into it i realized that they're talking about all crypto (including shitcoins) but according to their source bitcoin only outflow is even worse at $-24,7MM they only have $656MM inflow under "Other" category which i couldn't really follow

When I wrote this post on https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50 there was data for 21th Jan, showing 14K outflow to 552K BTC. Later they deleted it and now it shows 566K. May it was a mistake, since 21st was Sunday. Tomorrow we will know what are the outfolws for today.

Looks like another day of -14.292BTC outflow for GBTC, bringing them down to BTC552.681 more than 10% has already been liquidated...

[1714197188]

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[1714197188]

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[ivomm]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

Well, your logic is like the principle buy low sell high. Sounds true, but in reality most of the daily traders do the opposite. Trying to defend Greyscale leadership is pointless. They prefer to take the big money now, rather than to try to keep their clients. And definitely they are not caring what damage this will inflict on the price.  Btw,  there are some good explanations for what's going on, like this one:

"Note: the more we think about it and talk to ppl, prob only a small minority of the GBTC outflows are likely going to the Nine right now as much of it was FTX and traders who arb-ed discount. Also the proportionality of the flows to the size of the firm is almost perfect, indicating flows due to reach/distribution/hustle."
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1748696162725458229

It seems that others think in the same way: https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1749690314569502725

1) The reason for #Bitcoin's recent drop in price, despite the ETF floodgates being opened, is directly related to GBTC redemptions by bankruptcy estates such as FTX. And the reason GBTC is held by so many companies in bankruptcy is directly tied to the fraud by  @BarrySilbert

2/ Despite many conflicts of interest @BarrySilbert encouraged lending to companies performing the ill-conceived GBTC arb trade because this increased the assets under management at his portfolio company Grayscale.

3/ In another case, DCG (which @BarrySilbert is CEO of) owed Bitcoins to its other child company Genesis ( now also in bankruptcy) and instead of paying Bitcoins he paid with GBTC, which DCG was loaded to the gills with. Genesis will now also need to liquidate its GBTC.

4/ This mess is going to take some time to unwind (don't worry, it eventually will). No one is more responsible and deserves more blame for this mess than
@BarrySilbert. He is now under investigation by several regulatory bodies and law enforcement agencies.

5/ I wrote a long thread explaining the details of @BarrySilbert's fraud and the GBTC arb trade that ended up toppling several companies in this very long tweet thread:
https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1721385528510251182

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

Prepair for a possible $5000 - $10.000 dump.

good advice back then.

interesting to read through the past WO posts. (have to catch up anyways)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Erumo]

good advice

SELL!

[BobLawblaw]

[BitcoinBunny]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

Well, your logic is like the principle buy low sell high. Sounds true, but in reality most of the daily traders do the opposite. Trying to defend Greyscale leadership is pointless. They prefer to take the big money now, rather than to try to keep their clients. And definitely they are not caring what damage this will inflict on the price.  Btw,  there are some good explanations for what's going on, like this one:

"Note: the more we think about it and talk to ppl, prob only a small minority of the GBTC outflows are likely going to the Nine right now as much of it was FTX and traders who arb-ed discount. Also the proportionality of the flows to the size of the firm is almost perfect, indicating flows due to reach/distribution/hustle."
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1748696162725458229

It seems that others think in the same way: https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1749690314569502725

1) The reason for #Bitcoin's recent drop in price, despite the ETF floodgates being opened, is directly related to GBTC redemptions by bankruptcy estates such as FTX. And the reason GBTC is held by so many companies in bankruptcy is directly tied to the fraud by  @BarrySilbert

2/ Despite many conflicts of interest @BarrySilbert encouraged lending to companies performing the ill-conceived GBTC arb trade because this increased the assets under management at his portfolio company Grayscale.

3/ In another case, DCG (which @BarrySilbert is CEO of) owed Bitcoins to its other child company Genesis ( now also in bankruptcy) and instead of paying Bitcoins he paid with GBTC, which DCG was loaded to the gills with. Genesis will now also need to liquidate its GBTC.

4/ This mess is going to take some time to unwind (don't worry, it eventually will). No one is more responsible and deserves more blame for this mess than
@BarrySilbert. He is now under investigation by several regulatory bodies and law enforcement agencies.

5/ I wrote a long thread explaining the details of @BarrySilbert's fraud and the GBTC arb trade that ended up toppling several companies in this very long tweet thread:
https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1721385528510251182

How can one guy with an illegal penis have so much influence on the price?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitcoinPsycho]

Mega pump imminent

[BitcoinBunny]

Mega pump imminent

Hope so. Enough of this illegal penis carry on. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Roggeredek]

Mega pump imminent

Hope so. Enough of this illegal penis carry on. 

No Mega dump. it is recovery.

Bitcoin price recovery likely as miners add over $250 million worth of BTC to their reserve
https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-recovery-likely-as-miners-add-over-250-million-worth-of-btc-to-their-reserve-202401230539

[Lucius]

Looking at the bigger picture, nothing bad is happening - everyone who thinks the price is too high will have the opportunity to buy cheaper, and on the other hand, the more Grayscale sells, the better for the future. Such a concentration of BTC in the possession of only one company is always nothing but a big risk.

The Grayscale sold BTC seems to be going to Black Rock and maybe Fidelity.. so a shifting of the risk rather than an elimination of the risk, but we will see.
~snip~

The sold BTC can go in any direction, but it is still better that a dozen companies have that amount of BTC than only one that, in case of hacking or some other accident, would cause such an upheaval on the market that it would throw us back, not only in terms of the price of BTC , but also the trust that has been built up over the years.

However, even if Grayscale would not be in the equation with its BTC stock, the question is how much we overestimated the spot ETF when it comes to the US market, given that it has existed for years in some other countries such as Canada and has not resulted in too much investor interest.

Big companies like BlackRock and Fidelity with their trillions under management were a very good story, but the question is how much investors actually want to invest in Bitcoin regardless of which instrument someone provides them.

[BitcoinBunny]

Like anything most people will invest when they are fomo-ing in and thinking they are going to miss the boat.

I think the combination of the halving and probable interest rate cuts later in the year will lead to a big run up.

Nothing is certain, but I think those more structural economic inevitables will make more people invest rather than (indeed) just more investment instruments being available.

[d_eddie]

We might never go back to the incredibly wild swings of the past. Maybe we should get ready to just wild swings?

and miss out on the sheer terror of crazy price swings for no reason at all?

jeez that would be boring.

Wild swings? Not boring
Degenerate bitcoiners
Taste for suffering



#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Familian]

There happens to be a host of sell pressure due to the GBTC sell.
If i were you out there with so much cash in hand, I'll take the initiative of the dumps right now to stack more bitcoin,
its not about the present its about the future after the sell pressure would have stabilized.

 And don't forsake to stack wisely.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

Swift kick to the nuts
Thats what Buddy needs to help
Motivate him good.