So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??
I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).
0.1 BTC is the offer.
Yeah I understand
A dip is always around the corner
But
I will take a bet when I say bitcoin will not be trading 50 days in 2024 under the price of 40k
Now that's an interesting counter. Problem is, I'm not that bearish, even if still think $30K remains likely. I'm bearish on price, just not on time
Ill admit my offer was more antagonistic, given price was only 3 days and +5% trading back above $40K... even if I would have made that bet with any uber-bull.
How about 30 days under $40K for 0.01 BTC?
(taking JJG advice here) With the halving only ~83 days away, 50 days sounds like too long. I imagine it might take a month or longer to correct below $40K, whether that be to $35K, $30K or even $20K (most bearish scenario), but also think it's likely to have a god-style candle from support back above $40K leading into the halving, so wouldn't want to get caught out here.
That is an interesting and even fair counter-proposal for such a bet, and it does bring out the idea of "are you bearish?" or "are you bullish?" perspective and even to add a bit of a need persistency below $40k rather than a kind of transitory touching upon sub $40k.
That's the thing, long-term I'm still bullish until $20K. I simply think price needs to cool off after a 12 month rally (or 3 month rally, if we are to consider the consolidation around $25K for 6 months, which we obviously should). Therefore, based on usual mid-cycle corrections, ~$30K seems very reasonable, roughly -35-40% back to the 200 WMA area (like has happened in both past cycles, regardless of reasons why/when this happened). I also think a dip will very short lived, and that after the halving price will stabilise around ~$35-40K very quickly/easily, between 0.382 & 0.5 fib levels from ATH to recent low, again similar to previous cycles. The only difference I see this time around is that the blow-off top arrived 6 months later than usual, but I don't think that nullifies a correction, only speeds it up, or makes it less severe. Some people see $25K summer price as the "cycle top" prior to a correction, but with pull-backs of only -20%, I only see consolidation working our way through long-term resistance, not a top at all, but textbook continuation.
The main issue I have is that most people see a return to $30K as bearish, whereas it'd quite likely be the most bullish thing to happen to price in the next few months, in order to cool off and build more momentum for a stronger rally. Obviously in the short-term -35% is bearish, sure, but is also far from unusual, even in full-blown post-halving bull markets. Either that, or consolidation between $40K and $50K for next 6 months would also be very bullish, I just see if as much less likely even if entirely possible. My main issue with $35K is that -30% doesn't go deep enough for a mid-cycle correction, it's usually 35-50%.
Ramble over.
Poll
